🐱MNF Betting Preview: Bengals at Jags

Two props I played tonight, as well as a look a the matchup, the injury report and how the hell the Titans ended up in overtime

Similar to getting bonus points for Thursday’s "game without punts”, I feel like bettors should get some sort of extra pat on the back in the Patriots under that featured ZERO plays inside the red zone from either team. As far as I can tell, this is something that hasn’t happened since 2007 in a matchup between the Tarvaris Jackson-led Vikings (ft. a rookie RB named Adrian) and Joey Harrington’s Falcons.

Market

This opened with the Jaguars over a TD favorite and still has taken mostly Jacksonville money up to this point, moving from -7.5 to -10.

The total dipped down early in the cycle, getting as low as 37.5 on Tuesday off of a 40.5 opener. It’s since come back up in the past few days seeing action on the over at the depressed number, pushing it back to 40.

Injuries

Good News/Bad News for the Bengals:

WR Tee Higgins will play tonight, as will LB Logan Wilson, but an already struggling secondary will be without CB Cam Taylor-Britt. His ankle injury may see him miss multiple weeks.

Backup OT D’Ante Smith and DT Jay Tufele are both questionable to play.

The Jags lost their starting left tackle, Cam Robinson last week, he was put on IR this week with a knee injury. Walker Little will start at left tackle in his place. Other than that, it’s a pretty clean report for the home team.

RB Travis Etienne is questionable but expected to play. CB Tyson Campbell and tight ends Luke Farrell and Brenton Strange are also listed as questionable. Campbell is expected to play.

Matchup

Obviously, this would have been a much more exciting matchup with Joe Burrow in but we’ll do our best with Jake Browning and hope for some excitement. Kind of have the old “two teams heading in opposite directions” thing going on here.

As much as we talk up Bengals DC Lou Anarumo, this has not been a great defense. A big part of it is the personnel and the hits they took to the secondary in the off-season free agency, but right now this team is giving up more yards per play and more explosive plays per game than anyone. Yeah, the Steelers only put up 16 on them last week, but most of that was on the Steelers, who had over 400 yards and should have had at least 24.

Tennessee played a big part in making the Jags look good two weeks ago but they showed up an won another tough divisional game last week in Houston and in both cases, Trevor has a very nice day if you look at the numbers. If the game plan is to continue to use Ridley and Kirk the way they’ve been implemented the past two weeks, I don’t see a big dropoff from Trevor against this defense. With his knee fully healed, this is a team that somehow controls their destiny for the top seed in the AFC.

Josh Allen and Travon Walker continue to be an effective tandem up front and I think if Cincy wants to compete, they need to get back to what worked when Burrow was playing hurt early on: lots of quick passes to Jamar Chase with a smattering of Mixon screens to keep Browning upright.

Betting

I don’t love paying too much for a team total, but I did look at this over 24.5 for Jacksonville considering how well the offense has been playing.

In the end, I couldn’t decide which I liked more so I made some small bets on explosive plays tonight. When Trevor cocks back and unleashes a 40-yarder, it’s going to hurt so much when I see Zay Jones come down with it.

Ridley longest reception over 23.5 yards -114

Kirk longest reception over 21.5 yards -114

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So many weird games, a couple of good ones, and a battle of top teams that was very one-sided. Week thirteen isn’t in the books until tonight, so I jotted down a couple of things that stuck with me from yesterday.

I’ll have my thoughts on every game from week 13 tomorrow, after taking in the cat-battle tonight.

Chain Reaction

I hate to take away anything the Colts did to win that game and push their name decisively into the playoff hunt, but what a wild chain of events to get this one to overtime.

With Tennessee leading 17-16 late in the third quarter, a three and out led to a blocked punt that was scooped up for a TD return and the Colts snagging their first lead of the game. They opted to try for two in in order to grab a seven-point lead, but Minshew’s pass was intercepted and HOUSED for the ultra-rare defensive two-point conversion.

22-19

Another 3 and out for the Titans led to another punt, and more blocking issues up front for the punt team. The boxscore actually lists this one as a fumble since it was never actually kicked, but for all intents and purposes, the Colts would block another punt deep in their opponent’s end, this time only getting a FG on the ensuing possession.

25-19

More importantly, though, the hit from Tony Brown would knock punter Ryan Stonehouse out of the game with a leg injury. We’d later find out the place kicker Nick Folk has a pretty decent leg as well and filled in nicely as the emergency punter, but that wasn’t Stonehouse’s only responsibility with the team.

The Titans then put together an 11-play touchdown drive to tie the game up with five minutes and change on the clock. When it came time to kick the extra point, it would be QB Ryan Tannehill receiving the snap from Morgan Cox in place of the injured Stonehouse. I don’t think he did the worst job of it and to his credit, would successfully hold for a FG in overtime, but something apparently wasn’t quite right about his hold and place. Nick Folk would miss his first extra point of the entire year.

25-25

Indy would get the ball three more times before the end of regulation and obviously would have treated those possessions differently had they been trailing by a point rather than tied, but still.

The AFC South never disappoints, this one deserved to be a week three Thursday Night Football game. The Colts are now in a playoff spot if the season were to end today.

Love Beats Mahomes

I was in on this Packers team before the season, not because I had some magical understanding of how Jordan Love would progress as a passer and leader, but because they had so many unknowns at skill positions players on this offense, Love included. It’s a high-variance proposition that can go either way, so I was willing to look at this team as a dark horse.

That said, I was OUT on them after six weeks after not seeing much in the ways of improvement from the young signal caller. I guess maybe the injuries to the RBs and WRs should have pushed me into having a bit more patience, but even considering that, after eight weeks, Love was the 28th-ranked QB in Completion Percentage Over Expected metrics and in the bottom half of the league in EPA/play.

Since week 9, he’s ranked 6th and 3rd, respectively.

So what changed?

We absolutely need to give LaFleur and the coaching staff credit, but as simple and stupid as it sounds, it’s just looking like a guy who got rid of the mistakes.

He was making big throws early in the year, but it was hard to laud his overall performances when he was mixing in so many bad misses and inaccuracies. Sometimes there isn’t some secret formula past just needing more real game action.

From his post-game: “I’ve got more reps, I’m more comfortable, understanding where I need to go with the ball.”

Again, it sounds simplistic and painfully obvious, but a big part of getting rid of the bad parts of his game that we saw early on is his improved pocket presence and how he handles the pressure by knowing when to find a check-down option. These aren’t things that will improve without the real-game experience and the time he’s spent with this young receiving corps.

Splitting his season into the first eight weeks (seven games) and everything since, he’s seen his completion rate vs the blitz and vs all pressure take nice-sized jumps up. Still a long way to go to keep the ungodly long streak of elite quarterbacking in Wisconsin going, but things are looking hopeful again in Titletown.

I was going to rock an old cliche but it appears this morning the Athletic beat me to it: the Packers are the “team that no one wants to face right now”*

*If Christian Waton’s hammy is okay

What’s on the docket for tomorrow?

  • Full Week 13 Round Up

  • A look at which lines are moving early in the week

  • Award markets including a shake-up in the MVP pricing

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