Situational Stuff round-up: yeah it’s built into the pricing, but it’s still worth knowing as you evaluate the markets or if you need to justify a bet you already made to your friends.

• West Coast teams playing early games on the East Coast: Chargers and Cardinals

• The Browns are playing their second straight road game but did opt to stay out west instead of returning to Cleveland between the Denver and LA games.

• The Chiefs, Dolphins, and Panthers are also on the second leg of back-to-back road games.

• Miami and the NY Jets have extra prep time coming off the Black Friday game.

• The 49ers are traveling for the second straight week but, have the extra rest since their last game was on Thanksgiving.

• Speaking of, Green Bay and Detroit are also with extra time to prep, having last played two Thursdays ago.

• There is no short week for anyone this week with both MNF teams (CHI, MIN) on bye. The Giants, Bills, Ravens, and Raiders are also off this week

• The Cardinals and Commanders have a bye week upcoming after today’s games.

Weather

There are a few games that may have some precipitation today, basically anything on the East Coast.

The only one that really appears to be getting “bad” weather is the Chargers/Patriots game. The winds look to be light but it’s going to rain for pretty much the entire game with some heavy rain at times.

ATL @ NYJ, ARI @ PIT, and SF @ PHI have decent chances of seeing some rain today and a little further south the MIA @ WAS game has a small chance for some scattered storms. Tonight may bring some light snow to Green Bay as well when the Chiefs come to town.

Injuries

• Good news for the Texans as Tank Dell and Noah Brown are expected to play.

• Saints WR Chris Olave is questionable and still in the concussion protocol, but things are “trending in the right directions”

• The Panthers are getting healthy, with Jaycee Horn, Jeremy Chinn, and Yetur Gross-Matos all being activated off the IR yesterday.

• Tee Higgins is good to go for Sunday according to coach Zac Taylor

• Keenan Allen is expected to play for the Chargers today

• Rams WR Cooper Kupp is again expected to play

• Myles Garrett has no injury designation after a whirlwind week of conflicting reports (mostly from the same reporter)

• Jayden Reed is still up in the air for the Packers, but they didn’t elevate any WR depth, so hopefully that’s a good sign.

• Tampa Bay LBs Lavonte David and Devin White are both out.

• Honestly, there aren’t that many injury decisions that appear to be trending badly right now: Amari Cooper, Hollywood Brown, Trey McBride, De’Von Achane, Kadarius Toney, Zeke Elliot, Breece Hall, and Chris Godwin are all “expected to play”.

• Travis Etienne will likely play Monday, per Head Coach Doug Peterson

Everything I’ve wagered on, and for the record, it’s not the worst idea to hop in and hang with us on Wednesday nights, where we got some of these looks at slightly better prices. Also played some Denver +3.5, which I think is still a nice price if you can find that number anywhere without paying for it.

Detroit Team Total over 25 -115

Love this offense, not sure I can trust this defense, even against a team whose QB and playmakers are turning into dust. I think Detroit off an extended break, indoors, against a team that’s down their top cornerback can easily top 30 in this one. I don’t wager on a “bounce back” or that they “need a win”, but I will assume coach Campbell has them focused in after a bad loss on Thanksgiving.

Carolina/Tampa Bay under 37 -115

Tampa Bay is again missing two top LBs and some depth behind them as well. Unfortunately, this Carolina offense hasn’t been a unit that’s been able to take advantage of anything it’s been given, and even with the wholesale coaching changes, I’m not sure I’d be willing to expect much different. Looking for a gross divisional rock fight here.

NE-LAC under 39 -103

Even before I saw the weather, I was a fan of this one. Zappe may screw it up with some turnovers that lead to easy points, but right now I’m still ready to fade both of these offenses. Keenan Allen is banged up and Demario Douglas is out, both teams may need to rely more on the run. That doesn’t bode well for the road favorites. The Chargers are near the bottom of the league in most rushing metrics while that’s been a strength of the Pats’ defense.

Bijan Robinson over 82.5 Rushing + Receiving -120

Finally getting back to a spot where he’s getting 20 touches a game and he’s paying dividends. The Jets run stop has been poor for the most part and hopefully, we’re in a game state where Atlanta is leading and will run the ball (sort of a joke, it doesn’t matter what the game state is, they’ll run the ball).

I think I’m like 3-0 on player prop unders and 4-10 on overs, but I persist!

6.5-point Teaser: Miami -2.5 / Tennesee +7.5 -120

It’s not really a Sunday without at least one teaser, especially after how some of last week’s (non-Thursday) legs did. Bit of an ugly one with Miami as a road favorite and Tennesee still starting Will Levis, but it’s math, not feelings with this. As always, try not to get bent over a barrel on pricing here. Optimally you’re looking for -120 on a 6.5-point teaser, so try not to get worse than -130.

Need a 5-minute opinion on any of the other games? We touched on all of them Wednesday night (like we do every week). Time stamps in the description so you can jump to where you want to be. The podcast is available for anyone who wants to listen instead, time stamps in there as well. Good Luck, Have Fun!

Another solid year rolling on the “other” side of the ball from Ryan Noonan. It’s Sunday, so he’s back again with another player prop:

Jordan Fuller (S, LAR) Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists +105