Four games are lined up for us over the next two days, I’m already starting to do some writing on the Thanksgiving day matchups. All four games with spreads over a touchdown, two that are double-digits at this point, and I don’t care. I’ll watch every damn minute. Enjoy the holiday if you celebrate and have safe travels if you’re heading to see family or friends.

The later the season gets, the less these move around, and the biggest decisions you need to make are usually just based on QB adjustments. I don’t think I’m making any sort of move for the Heinicke to Ridder backtrack in Atlanta.

I honestly should have put in another tier after the Jags just to signify a gap.

Movers ahead of week 12:

Houston 📈

No one really got hearty bumps up in the power ratings this week, but of the teams that took roughly a half-point move up, Houston is the most interesting. It wasn’t a great 2nd half against the Cards, but they have a running game now and Stroud’s “shooters shoot” mentality has me loving this team and it’s coaching.

Other upgrades: CHI, MIN, DEN

• Already bumped up before the game with Fields starting, I saw enough from the offense to continue to move the Bears out of the absolute cellar with the real trash.

• Minnesota lost, but it was similar to early season struggles where a couple of key turnovers were all that kept them from winning in a tough road environment. This move also represents roughly a 30% chance (my guess) that Jefferson is playing this week.

• Denver’s defense is good now and despite not finishing the drives and settling for FIVE field goals before finally breaking through, Russ and Sutton look good enough to take this team seriously as a dark horse wildcard contender.

Cincinnati 📉

“No shit, Andy”

I did just want to talk about how much of a pain this was to sort out based on some unusable data from Joey Brrr this year. I sort of just used a baseline from how he’s played when healthy the past couple of years to determine the drop-off here. Browning isn’t going to give us league-average EPA numbers even with some good WRs, so I settled on dropping the Bengals a full 6+ points.

Other downgrades: LV, WAS, TEN

• It’s tough to downgrade off a cover versus a good team, but AOC is looking pretty bad at this point. Only three QBs had worse EPA/play numbers last week. One's a rookie, one got benched and the other got his OC fired.

• The defense wasn’t even that bad in the loss to the Giants, holding them to one of the lowest offensive success rates we saw on Sunday. But, the Commanders can’t have the turnovers and expect to beat anyone. Howell’s air yards were bottom 5 last week among QBs and he still managed to cough it up that many times.

• Tennessee is turning into one of the most anemic offenses in the league with Levis at the helm. They somehow only ran 38 plays last week while 0.61 expected points per dropback to Trevor Lawrence.

Awards Updates 🏆

Another week of heavy discourse online about the MVP, with the general sentiment from the armchair QBs very much disagreeing with the market in this one. Lots of calls for Dak and Purdy based on their numbers, and while I agree, I really think voters wanna see their MVP kicking back on Wildcard Weekend with a bye.

Hell, I’ve even heard some calls for Tyreek to get it. That makes sense from the standpoint of “how valuable is he to a team.” Unfortunately, that’s not usually how these things are voted on.

Jalen moves into the top spot as the only one-loss team and Lamar gets the boost as well seeing how they are in line for the top spots in the conference. I don’t have a great guess on how it actually shakes out, there are SO MANY games left between the top teams still.

Offensive Player of the Year

Tyreek (+115) still holds a slight lead over CMC (+170) but both get stand-alone holiday games to show out for the national audience this week. So does CeeDee Lamb (+1400), but he’s a little banged up. A.J. Brown holds on to the third spot in the odds at 7/1.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Stroud threw three interceptions and still moved to -4000. He’s amazing, but also no one else is doing anything. The other contenders in the pre-season pricing were Bryce Young, Bijan Robinson, and Anthony Richardson.

Defensive Player of the Year

Just like the narrative for coach of the year, sometimes willing a team to an unlikely playoff berth can win you an award. Myles Garrett (+100) shows up every damn week and if this Browns team can hold on to a wild card spot, he’s going to be the man that the media lauds. Micah Parsons (+230) had a nice week but will need a big showing on Thanksgiving to close the gap a bit. T.J. Watt has also dropped off a bit in the market and is now +340 at FanDuel.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Not a ton of moving parts here. Unless Will Anderson (+1600) or Devon Witherspoon (+155) start having some big days/viral plays, it’s just going to be Jalen Carter (-160) at the top each week.

Coach of the Year

Two-man race has rightfully become a three-man race. Campbell (+150) has the Lions at 8-2 for the first time since before we started doing the whole Super Bowl thing.

DeMeco Ryans (+350) has a chance to put himself neck and neck at the top this week though. A win that has them with an unlikely lead in the AFC South is something we’d all gobble up.

Mike McDaniel (+450) has lost some of the early season shine but still has a good chance to get the top seed in the AFC, which could be enough to take him over the top.

Comeback Player of the Year

Hamlin played some defensive snaps!

The price did snap back to around where it was last week (-150). I feel like I’ve already wasted too much thought on this dumb award and am finally just willing to admit that he probably just gets it no matter what Tua, Lamar, and Dobbs do.

The Aaron Rodgers thing was fun to think about, but I really don’t think the team would let him come back early and risk injury if the team is out of it.

Free to Read

BONUS: Some Props From Connor at 4for4