Week 12 NFL Power Ratings

In partnership with

Tough decisions to be made after week 11.

Can the Chiefs still be elite when they never, ever win a close game? Are the Seahawks still a force when Darnold turned the clock back to ghosts/mono Sam of yesteryear? What’s Denver’s deal?

Not a ton of big moves for me this week, including with a handful of teams dealing with QB changes. They are downgrades, but going from Rodgers to Rudolph and Gabriel to Sanders aren’t massive moves. Penix to Cousins somehow is the biggest QB adjustment I made. I’ll try to let the data do most of the decision making and stay out of the way for now. It’s been working.

For now, the Bills are atop the ratings with the half dozen other near-elites not far off. The tail end of teams making the playoffs leaves something to be desired, but there’s still plenty of football that needs shaking out before we get to that. I love what they’ve done with what they have, but the odds of the Bears holding on to the three seed in the NFC seem low.

Philadelphia 📈

I still can’t get a grip on what the plan is on offense sometimes for Kevin Patullo, but the defense is coming together nicely, as they often do for Mr. Fangio. Holding the Lions to 3/18 on third and fourth downs and making Goff look absolutely lost at times was impressive. They may not look complete right now, but they are sitting in the catbird seat, and the playoffs may run through the Linc.

Other upgrades: NE, JAX, TB, LAR

• New England is winning games against bad teams, which is better than the alternative (which happens plenty), looking bad, and sneaking wins out against inferior opponents. It may be harder to properly rate them against these sorts of teams, and this week isn’t much different (Cincy, sans Chase), but Maye looks good and that’s enough.

• The Jags got a dominating win, which doesn’t erase all the skullduggery from two weeks ago, but was promising for a team looking to find their way into the AFC playoffs. They have another susceptible defense this week in Arizona.

• Tampa Bay simply gets a bump because I’m assuming Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin will return for the team. They put up a good fight last week and don’t have it any easier this week heading to LA, but the offense getting back to full health can do wonders.

• Speaking of the Rams: they held serve. Winning a close one versus a tough defense in Seattle was impressive; their pressure gave Darnold fits. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt on the lower-end offensive performance (Stafford only had 130 yards passing) if this is the trajectory of their pass rush and coverage.

Atlanta 📉

Sure-handed, big-bodied wide receivers don’t grow on trees, and losing Drake London is likely just as meaningful as the downgrade at the quarterback spot. Coupled with a beat-up offensive line and questionable coaching, this team is now an underdog to Tyler bleeping Shough.

Other downgrades: HOU, KC, PIT, LV

• Houston is starting to pick up a few injuries, and it wasn’t a great performance from Davis Mills against a terrible Tennessee team. With so many names on the initial injury report, it’s hard to tell exactly where I’ll have this team come Thursday, but for now, it’s a slight downgrade.

• I have no idea what’s up with Kansas City in late-game situations/close games. Great teams do the little things right, and KC isn’t right now. In their loss to Denver, they dropped balls, had poor execution from the coverage unit on meaningful downs, and put up a pretty meh performance on special teams, with Butker giving up field position on kicks as well as them giving up a blocked XP.

• Pittsburgh's win was a bit closer than the final score indicated, but they still took care of business against a bottom-three defense. I know Rodgers isn’t in the best form here in the twilight of his career, but it’s still a step down to Mason Rudolph.

• The Raiders appeared to have some quit in them on defense last night and Geno just isn’t going to give you enough to win games right now. Jeanty can’t get going at all, and Pete Carroll may be ready for pasture.

• Bonus: The number is already PRETTY low, but Cincy without their best WR is still a downgrade.

🚨Podcast Tomorrow🚨

Another lovely week of betting on Sunday, hoping to follow it up with an encore in week 12. We’ll go over all the games, one by one, at 3 pm ET tomorrow afternoon, and as always, it’ll be up in podcast form not long after.