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• Trevor Lawrence will miss another week with his shoulder injury

• The Colts have once again changed their mind and will start Richardson.

• There have now been multiple stories/tweets about the financial ramifications and risks of the Giants starting Daniel Jones moving forward.

• Deion rumors are already starting.

Did some reconfiguring at the top, and funny enough my Baltimore and Dallas numbers are essentially the same. It seems as if I’m a bit lower on Buffalo than the market, but there’s obviously an easy way to change my mind on that come Sunday. Instinctively, I think my Chargers number may be a touch low as well and I’ll be digging into that a bit this afternoon. Bottom two teams in my ratings are coming off wins!

Arizona 📈

Kyler is just playing at a level we haven’t seen before, and he does it every week (congrats on NFC OPOW). The defense is full of no-names, but is being put in great game states and finding themselves looking better than they are. The offensive line is injured, but the young left tackle is really coming into his own, while Kyler’s escapability is bolstering them as well.

Maybe the defense stinks. Teams built like this can struggle when they get behind, but we saw the comeback vs Miami a few weeks back. This squad is well-coached, and the offense is humming. I have them at

Other upgrades: GB, HOU, SF

• Green Bay is getting a bump from me since Jordan Love got a much needed rest. I’ll be keeping a close eye on any footage of him at practice, but he was clearly not 100% in the Detroit game and that matters a ron.

• Houston is simply “adding Nico back”

• The 49ers upgrades are offensive personnel as well. CMC will surely get back to form running despite what we saw last week.

Chicago 📉

The offensive line injury situation is somehow worse than it was earlier in the season when they were all banged up. Combine that with Caleb’s lack of sack avoidance, and this offense may as well just pack it up.

I’d love to give new OC Thomas Brown the benefit of the doubt, but I just don’t know that even a fresh game plan can overcome those things. Don’t get me wrong, Waldron needed to go; it’s just not a salvageable situation at the moment.

Other downgrades: DAL, TB, LAR

• Dallas looked worse than I could have imagined with Cooper Rush at quarterback. The players' quotes are troubling as well.

• Losing Tristan Wirfs is a big problem for the Bucs, who are having what could have been a very fun season ruined by injuries

• The Rams’ decision-making on Monday was astounding (derogatory), but I was likely a bit high on them offensively, and perhaps the Puka performance against Minnesota was more “Flores didn’t prep for him” than anything.

Updated Playoff Probabilities

I updated my numbers, ran them through two different simulators, and averaged the playoff probabilities (shared the full list in the Discord so that others could ridicule what they disagree with and help me take a second look at things).

🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

14 Games, no weird international matchups. We’ll go over all the injuries, the matchups, the updated pricing, the line moves and what we bet tonight at 7 ET.

Out late tonight/early tomorrow in podcast form.