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Week 11 NFL Betting
Injuries, Weather, Bets and More

Injuries 🤕
Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr will miss the game after an emergency appendectomy. Baron Browning, Mack Wilson, and Will Johnson are out for the defense. RB Bam Knight is good to go.
Atlanta Falcons - WR Drake London is expected to play. CB Dee Alford, Edge Leonard Floyd, and OL Matthew Bergeron are out.
Baltimore Ravens - RB Justice Hill, WR Rashod Bateman, and CB Marlon Humphrey have been ruled out.
Buffalo Bills - Will be without star TE Dalton Kincaid
Chicago Bears - Jaquan Brisker and Jaylon Johnson are listed as questionable
Cincinnati Bengals - RB Samaje Perine is out with an ankle injury, as is Trey Henderickson and Shemar Stewart on the defensive line.
Cleveland Browns - DE Alex Wright is out
Denver Broncos - RB J.K. Dobbins is looking like he’ll miss the season with a foot injury. Pat Surtain, Alex Singleton, and Jonah Elliss are out for the defense.
Detroit Lions - TE Sam Laporta was placed on the IR with back injury. Terrion Arnold and Kerby Joseph will miss the game for the defense.
Green Bay Packers - CB Nate Hobbs is OUT, WR Matthew Golden is questionable
Houston Texans - CJ Stroud remains out with his concussion. Davis Mills gets another start at QB. S Jalen Pitre is also out.
Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Brian Thomas Jr is looking unlikely to play today. TE Brenton Strange and CB Jourdan Lewis are also out.
Kansas City Chiefs - Isiah Pacheco will miss the game with his knee injury. Xavier Worthy is good to go.
Los Angeles Chargers - WR Quentin Johnston and CB Tarheeb Still are questionable to play.
Los Angeles Rams - WR Davante Adams expects to play through an oblique injury
Miami Dolphins - CB Rasul Douglas is questionable.
Minnesota Vikings - RB Aaron Jones will play; OLB Jonathan Greenard and C Ryan Kelly are out.
New York Giants - WR Darius Slayton is out with a hamstring injury, Jameis Winston gets the nod at QB with Dart still concussed.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Alex Highsmith and Darius Slay are ruled out. Isaac Seumalo is questionable.
San Francisco 49ers - Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are BACK!
Seattle Seahawks - WR Tory Horton is out
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin remain out. OL Ben Bredeson and OLB Haason Reddick are out as well.
Tennessee Titans - Calvin Ridley and Jeffrey Simmons are both expected to return this week!
Washington Commanders - WR Treylon Burks and Terry McLaurin remain out
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Weather ⛈
Getting colder, getting windier.
Tampa Bay at Buffalo: 20+ mph sustained winds with gusts in the 30s and a small chance of some precip (maybe snow)
Baltimore at Cleveland: 25+ mph winds with gusts in the 30s. 50% chance we see some rain showers
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Winds 15-20 with gusts nearing 30 mph and some chances for rain
Green Bay at NY Giants: 20 mph winds with gusts as high as 40 mph
Situational 📆
Washington and Miami are playing in Spain. Both teams will take their bye weeks afterwards.
The Falcons are coming off their loss in London, opting not to take a bye week after international travel; they’ll play the Panthers at home.
Baltimore is now on their third straight road game, facing the Browns in Cleveland.
The Bengals are coming off the bye week, facing Pittsburgh
Denver is facing Andy Reid and the Chiefs off their bye week, but the Broncos are also on extra rest, having last played on TNF.
Same exact situation Monday night with Las Vegas coming off TNF, facing a Dallas team off the bye.
Detroit will be on their second straight road game this week, also the second straight week outdoors for the dome team (will not play outdoors again until week 18). Their opponent, the Eagles, are on a short week of rest, having played MNF.
Green Bay is also on a short week off of Monday’s game
Tennessee is off its bye week, facing Houston

Sunday Bets
Lighter week, but some of that is line moves. I’d love to give out Tampa Bay/Buffalo under 48.5, but that ship sailed days ago. Still some value spots I like this week, though.
Seattle +3 +107
A team I’ve backed plenty, finally up against a worthy opponent. The market says that this should be pushing past the three, and I couldn’t disagree more. I should just be on the sideline here watching how this plays out, but the numbers on Seattle have been right for the past month, and we’ll trust them again this week. If Darnold holds up against a good pass rush today, this is a Super Bowl contender for sure.
San Fran/Arizona over 49 -102
With the defensive injuries to both teams and the return of Purdy/Pearsall, I’ll be looking for points in this one despite the surprise absence of MHJ for the Cardinals. It’s still a SF defense that’s so thin that Brissett, McBride, and whoever else wants to participate should be able to score in the mid to upper 20s today. I did look at maybe just hitting the SF team total over here, but I think we get contributions from both teams.
Trevor Lawrence o0.5 Interceptions -109
Not a big props guy, but I like how this game state likely unfolds for Lawrence needing to be a bit more aggressive throwing (without several of his starting WRs on the field). The Chargers have averaged around a pick per game and are definitely trending upwards on that side of the ball.
Bears ML +132
It’s been an opportunistic defense, but from what I’ve seen of JJ McCarthy after his return, they may just have those opportunities again today. As for the Vikings’ defense, it’s been very middling over the past few weeks and will be without Jonathan Greenard today. Ben Johnson is starting to find his groove a bit, and the Bears should be able to find some offensive success today.
Aaron Rodgers o231.5 Passing Yards -107
Already a beleaguered defense, now down two pass rushers. Rodgers still has it (when he’s up against teams that can’t hurry him), and with the Bengals off the bye and some defensive pieces out for the Steelers, I think the Bengals stay in this game and keep the game script neutral enough where Rodgers is forced to throw 35 times or so.
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Everything else for the week (with timestamps):
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