MNF Betting Preview: Eagles vs Chiefs

Hell of a Sunday for division leaders. The Jags, Niners, Lions, and Dolphins all got wins, while Baltimore and New Orleans saw their division rivals either beat up on each other or lose outright while they rested up on bye. Two division leaders will go at it tonight, and while cross-conference games aren’t the most important in the end, it’s still a Super Bowl rematch and a big old feather in the cap of the winner.

Market

Very little movement even from the KC -2.5 lookahead that was posted on the 7th. Chiefs’ money is coming in, but so far it’s been just enough to take it to -2.5 (-120), but not to get it to -3 and keep it there. Most places are at the 2.5 with some extra juice currently.

The total was 48 on the early look-ahead lines and opened 48/48.5 last Sunday. Under money quickly showed up, taking it down to 46 by Monday morning. Seeing some resistance finally at 45 with the consensus line at 45.5 while I write this.

Injuries

Extremely light injury report for Kansas City, with anyone listed practicing in full all week. Richie James is questionable, but the team did activate him off the IR this morning, which leads me to believe he plays.

The Eagles are not as lucky, TE Dallas Goedert is out with his broken forearm as expected (there is some hope that he can return sooner than originally thought). S Justin Evans is also listed as out, he’s in the window to return, but the Eagles have not activated him off the IR just yet.

Update: defensive end Derek Barnett was downgraded to out for personal reasons. Barnett was rotational but did play on roughly 20% of defensive snaps.

Matchup

So many good matchups across the board here, and I still have no idea who’s going to win this thing. I wanted to focus on three that I think could have big impacts tonight.

Strength on Weakness: Eagles Running vs KC Run D

The Chiefs’ defense has played well this year, but they are giving up 4.5 yards per carry. The defense as a whole is only allowing 15.9 points per game (2nd best) and 288 yards per game (4th best), but the run stop has been suspect at best.

The Eagles not only bring a good RB1 to the table in D’Andre Swift, but Jalen Hurts is also averaging nearly 10 carries per game. The loss of Nick Bolton is felt for sure and if this matchup advantage comes to fruition for the Eagles, it may lead to some 2nd-half camera shots of a frustrated Mahomes sitting on the bench as Philly matriculates down the field on a long, time-gobbling drive or two.

Strength on Strength: Eagles WR vs Chiefs CBs

AJ Brown is a legit problem and very much in the offensive player of the year conversation and Devonta Smith has racked up 500 yards and four touchdowns as well. They should pose a stiff test for this secondary.

Maybe one of the biggest reasons this KC defense is the best it’s been in years: young players that developed quickly.

I pulled a good quote in an article on Bleeding Green by Brandon Lee Gowton, in which he asks a Chiefs blogger some questions about tonight’s matchup. Sneed and McDuffie have been quietly becoming an elite CB duo:

Now maybe the Eagles find enough success on the ground to lessen the impact here, but missing Dallas Goedert hurts even more in a game where they may need to rely on the secondary pass catchers to move the chains.

Weakness on Weakness: KC WRs vs Philly Secondary

Maybe a bit of a lie in the header here. Obviously, the Chiefs have one of the best receivers in the game in Travis Kelce. He’s always open and when he’s not, he seems to have an otherworldly mental connection with his QB and can find his way to gaps in the zone while Pat extends the play to find him for another easy first down.

That said, the rest of the motley crew has been nothing but disappointing. We’ve gotten some flashes from rookie Rashee Rice, but injuries, drops, and miscues have marred the seasons of the rest of the WR room.

Additionally, with CB Bradley Roby returning from injury and S Kevin Byard having another week to get familiar with this defense, maybe the Eagles’ secondary can start to tighten up a bit. I’d be willing to believe that before a scenario where the KC receivers all suddenly “get it”.

Betting

After outlining those matchups, I guess I can see why this under has been getting hit. It’s still very tough to sort out a game script and I think this side and total are probably about where they need to be.

I do know one thing, unless the game state is in a really weird place, I’ll likely take the 2nd half under. I hate to ride a trend one week too long, but man, the way both of these teams call a 2nd half is ripe for another under. Hell, I probably should just consider another full game under here.