📊 Week Eleven Early NFL Line Moves

Turned out to be an expensive missed extra point for yours truly. I did the right thing and found a reasonably priced 47 yesterday when the market pushed it down for a spell, but the Broncos had other plans for me. Hell, they missed two. Sometimes you’re the windshield, sometimes you’re the bug.

I didn’t come away from this one feeling great about anyone. Sean Payton’s game plan seemed to forget that this was a secondary you could push the ball downfield on. Russell Wilson seemed scared to throw past the sticks on most downs. Sean McDermott decided to give us the Latavius Murray revenge game for big chunks of the 1st half and Josh Allen was careless with the ball again.

On top of it all, Trevon Diggs not only stirred the pot with his post about getting his brother out of town, he doubled down on it this moring:

This morning, the Bills pulled off the first step in what I can only assume will lead to the eventual offseason firing of head coach Sean McDermott: they jettisoned a coordinator (despite having a pretty good offense). Ken Dorsey was let go and Joe Brady will step in as interim OC.

They had 7.1 yards per play last night, it probably just took ONE fewer turnover and they are 5-0 in home games and looking toward overtaking Miami for the division crown. Thems the breaks.

Using a simulator built out by DDD Discord luminary, Christopher Davis, I’m still a bit higher than the market on the Bills’ playoff chances (still under 50%). I guess I’m still seeing them through the lens of a team that can really move the damn ball and just needs to clean up the turnovers. (you can play around with his simulator too, you just need power ratings and a HFA number)

Seeding Projections:

Win Total Projections

Not a ton of moves really, just some light early week action in a few spots:

• Pittsburgh/Cleveland is getting bet to the under, down a point or more to 36.5/36

• Las Vegas/Miami total is also seeing a little downward movement with some shops showing a 46 after openers as high ast 48.5

• With sentiment around Matt Stafford staring, the Rams are now -1 hosting Seattle. They were +2.5 dogs yesterday afternoon.

ALL WEEK 11 GAME ODDS

Starting backwards here, because the discourse online over the Comeback Player of the Year is at an all time high.

I don’t know how the voters will treat this when the ballots are finally handed in, but Damar (-210) getting snaps that weren’t just kick return coverage has to mean something. Tua remains the second favorite at +470.

That said, Josh Dobbs (+650) has that feel-good story vibe. He’s getting the T-Swift treatment from the league’s social media and a run to the playoffs would keep the narrative train rolling. Geno crawled to that Josh could run, I’m convinced this is a way more likely candidate to overtake Hamlin than Tua or Baker.

Most of the rest of the awards markets were pretty status quo.

• OPOY remains the two man race between Hill (+140) and CMC (+160) with A.J. Brown (+550) sticking around. CeeDee Lamb at 30/1 or better is interesting. A big day in front of the world on Thanksgiving could catapult him into the convo for sure.

• DPOY saw Micah Parsons (+290) take a small step back. Garrett (+140) has had the flash plays and is now favored over TJ Watt (+230). Garrett is getting a sack roughly every 20 times he rushes the passer, which is very good.

• CJ Stroud is -2000 for OROY. I’m not even sure an injury derails this train now.

• The Eagles didn’t play and Jalen Carter’s price got shorter at -210. Witherspoon is going to need some highlights/TDs to catch up, he’s down to +175.

• Dan Campbell (+145) got a big win and had a crazy quote to keep DeMeco Ryans (+300) at arms length for coach of the year. McDaniel (+650) has a chance to make up some ground with a home game vs the Raiders off the bye this week.

• MVP feels very much up in the air still. Burrow (+1700) still has time to get back in this but as of now this is probably going to a QB on a team that secures a one seed in the playoffs. Mahomes leads the pack at +270, Hurts is right behind him at +300, Tua and Lamar sit at +550.

Finally, just because I’m way too online, I would encourage people with boring office jobs or nothing better to do to dig into the new Aaron Rodgers conspiracy theory a bit. Nothing brings me more joy than people going all-in head first on some crazy speculation like “Aaron Rodgers faked a catastrohic injury so that he could defy expectations and come back and play earlier”.

I hate to be reasonable and ruin the fun, but I feel like a team that’s paying him $36 million this year would probably do some double checking to make sure he 100% ripped up his old-ass leg tendon and isn’t just playing some elaborate and confusing long-con.

Still, I love the internet and the gusto it brings to these conversations and encourage everyone to continue to question everything and then tweet about it.