🏈Week 11 NFL Best Bets: Sides, Totals, Moneylines and Props
A half dozen wagers I made, a defensive prop gem from Noonan and some news and notes to catch you up before kickoff
A quick look at situational stuff for today, it’s all baked in for the most part, but still worth taking into account if you can’t quite figure out why you’re pricing is slightly off for a game:
The Jets are on the 2nd leg of back-to-back road games
Tennessee and the Giants are on the THIRD leg of back-to-back-to-back road stretches.
The Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, and Eagles are coming off their byes
NO ONE is heading into their bye. Week 12 will feature 16 games.
Arizona, Las Vegas, and the Chargers are all Pacific Time teams playing early slate games on the road.
Chicago and Carolina play road games but have extra rest coming off last week’s TNF game.
Conversely, Denver and Buffalo both host this week, but play on the short week off MNF.
Another week where there won’t be much for weather impacts across Sunday’s games.
San Francisco will see some higher winds, but they should be end-to-end instead of across the field and may just affect kicks on one end, if at all.
There are some rain possibilities tonight in Denver as well as some winds that could kick up to 25 mph gusts, but neither is guaranteed.
OT Dawand Jones is good to go for the Browns
Alexander Mattison will start at RB tonight for the Vikings after clearing concussion protocol
Cards WR Michael Wilson is out with a shoulder injury
Texans WR Noah Brown is unlikely to play today but will test his knee out before the game
Keenan Allen is expected to play for the Chargers, Guyton is not
Jets WR Garrett Wilson says he’s playing today vs Buffalo
Tyler Lockett will have a pregame workout to test the hamstring, but “there is optimism” he will play
De’Von Achane is off the IR and will play vs Las Vegas
Went over every game on Wednesday afternoon. Lots of double-digit spreads this week, but sometimes that’s just how the games line up. We talked through some future positions as well as some spots to look ahead to over the next few weeks.
Tampa Bay +13
I think I should be giving Tampa Bay quite a bit more credit considering their strength of schedule so far (easily one of the toughest). They also won’t be pushed around up front as easily as Jacksonville was last week. I know there isn’t a huge difference in actual win probability between the two numbers, but I make this, at most, -11. I’ll take the extra points and hope we see a 49ers team that could be looking ahead to an important Thanksgiving Day matchup with Seattle.
Arizona/Houston over 48
I have some Arizona +5 as well, but the more I look at the matchups here, the more I like this to turn into a bit of a track meet. We’ve seen it a few times with Houston already this year, and obviously, the Arizona offense is an entirely different beast now with Murray back. I played with my projections and think this ends up in the 50s quite often given the two defenses are 26th and 28th in EPA/dropback over the past month.
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Devon Achane over 51 rushing yards
He’s back, he’s fast as hell and the Raiders’ defense couldn’t stop a cold, sufficing you handed the ball off to it first. Everyone in the world will be on this and I don’t care. Also found some over over 63.5 for rushing + receiving that I played.
SNF: Minnesota/Denver under 41
Less excited at this number with better prices earlier in the week, but I still think this price should be in the 30s. The Vikings’ defense has been a top-ten unit in EPA/play over the past month under Brian Flores and Denver has taken a massive leap forward defensively as well after continuing to get healthy. I don’t trust the Denver offense/game plan to make the right decisions and this on the other side this will be an incredibly tough test for Dobbs, on the road.
6-point Teaser: Washington -3 / Pittsburgh +8
Going off script a little here with Washington, but I don’t know how many chances I’m going to get to bet against Tommy DeVito. There is the odd -8.5 out there, but I’m fine just taking this to the -3 spot. Washington’s defense hasn’t been good, but has a chance to grab a rare W against a 3rd string QB that’s also been on the injury report.
The Steelers’ leg explains itself. Divisional game against a backup QB with a total of 33, kind of hard to pass this one up. I know that what the Steelers are doing is unsustainable, but I still have a very hard time seeing the Browns winning this by margin with DTR starting.
Back to the well with the ever-improving Minnesota defense. Noonan likes a look on the young roaming safety.
Josh Metellus (MIN) Over 5.5 Tackles + assists -135
What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?
Full Recap of all today’s action
Monday Night Football Betting
MNF First TD Scorers
Anything else that needs looking into