We’ve reached the “Carson Wentz is on a team” part of the season, as I feared we soon would. Still, some bangers this weekend with Houston going to Cincy, Baltimore getting a tough test for their offense facing Cleveland, and the 49ers looking for the bounceback in Duval County.

New tiers, new top team. Hard to ignore a squad with a top 5 offense and defense. Maybe their only weakness right now is onside-kick coverage.

Didn’t get a chance to show my updates last week when I was out sick, so instead of going over the moves from last week I wanted to touch on the adjustments I made for QBs this week as the injuries and benchings mount up.

NY Giants: Barkley or DeVito

Matt Barkley hasn’t started a game since 2018, but Tommy DeVito was truly abhorrent as last week, with a -0.433 EPA/play in his time on the field so far. The last time Barkley was pressed into service for an extended time was on a play where Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers hit Brian Hoyer and broke his arm, so it’s going to be tough to extrapolate numbers that old for the career backup. If it’s Barkley though, I’ll upgrade the Giants by about a full point over DeVito (update while I was writing, it’s Devito, but I suppose it doesn’t really matter this week).

Tennessee - Levis announced as the starter

The passing success rate was trash most of the year with Tannehill and we did get to see the big arm in the first game. I won’t have this as much of an adjustment at all. I’m willing to give him a bit of a pass for some struggles last week as a lot of it was the offensive line getting dumptrucked by the Steelers’ pass rush. Excited to see him with extra prep against a defense that just got savaged by Baker Mayfield. No downgrade from Tannehill in my numbers.

Atlanta - Another week of Heinicke

Ridder was fine a lot of the time if we’re being honest. Decent completion rate and wasn’t asked to do a ton in this weird Atlanta offense, it’s the turnovers that really make his numbers look like hot garbage. Looking at the smallish sample and how he played in Washington, I’m not willing to upgrade this team rating at all for Heinicke. He’s going to work down the field a little more, but likely at a lower completion rate and just a slightly better EPA/play.

Arizona - Murray back in

Tough since the skill position players around him aren’t great. Obviously, Tune was put into an untenable position last week and never had a shot, but when comparing this to the Dobbs-led team from the first half of the season, it’s still gotta be a multiple-point upgrade just based on his skill set and ceiling.

We’ll know a ton more after seeing it in action, but if he trusts his knee and is getting designed runs + scrambles, I’m willing to make as much as a 4-point upgrade from Dobbs to Kyler off the bat, and more if he can elevate this lackluster offense by himself.

Minnesota - Dobbs with time to prep

Still a massive downgrade from Cousins, who was honestly pushing to have a season as a top-5 QB in the league. With no Jefferson still, the run game messy and KJ Osborne carted off last week, I don’t think we can expect every game to be as fun and exciting as the win over the Falcons. 4 point downgrade for me here from where we were two weeks ago. Likely should be more, but giving them a little credit for likely having a top-tier head coach/OC in O’Connell.

Bears - Fields back?

Surely some of the money coming in on the Bears has to do with the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for Carolina. I won’t be getting involved here on either side, the variance between a fully ready-to-go Fields and one who can’t grip a ball as well as he needs to is too much. If Fields goes and is fine, he’s a 2-point upgrade over Bagent.

Cleveland - Watson made it through a whole game

Still don’t trust him. PJ Walker and DTR put up some all-time bad success rates when they played, so it’s a clear upgrade. I did upgrade the Browns a titch just based on the fact that they have a QB that likely won’t have a long-term negative impact on a play-by-play basis, but this is a tough matchup heading to Baltimore. Watson still has to wind up and put his whole body behind some of these throws, that shoulder ain’t right.

Las Vegas - AOC

They aren’t asking the youngster to do much yet, you will continue to see more short stuff and running, but the drop-off from fully healthy Jimmy to what we’ve gotten from Aiden isn’t much at all. Obviously, they got a new coach motivation bump last week that’ll wear off, but I really have only made about a half-point adjustment down here based on the QB change.

NY Jets - not making a change!

Top 5 defense and a bottom 5 offense does not equal a middle-of-the-pack team. Still annoyed that this team is just going to waste an all-time defense on Zach Wilson. Just wanted to complain.

Bonus! LA Rams: Carson Wentz

Similar to the situation in Minnesota, you do have to account for the play caller/game planner in this one. McVay got Baker Mayfield ready in a hurry and gets the bye week to do it if he needs to.

The Rams expect Stafford to be ready, but I still went and pulled Wentz’s numbers for the past two years and if it came to it, would have to drop the Rams about halfway between Stafford and Brett Rypien, so likely a 2.5 to 3-point downgrade from healthy Stafford.

🚨Live Show Tonight🚨

Stinky primetime games, but still a ton of opinions to lay out here. Hop in live if you can, we’d love to hear what you have to say on some of these matchups.

When: 8EST | Where: The Internet

Mid Season Awards

Gonna make it quick since we’re still months early on the games that really matter for some of these.

MVP

Burrow (+900) took a well-deserved jump and Tua’s (+650) price will continue to go as the offense goes. If the Dolphins face a team they can dominate, he’s in the discussion that week. If they play a good team, he drops. Team success matters a ton for this, that’s why Mahomes (+240), Hurts (+320), and Lamar (+500) are now your top 3.

If I had to award it today: Hurts

OPOY 

A.J. Brown (+600) injects himself into the void left by Justin Jefferson. Now over 1,000 yards for the year and down to 6/1 at Fanduel to win this. Tyreek (+140) and CMC (+160) still have the inside track, but are we really destined to go two full years without this Eagles offense/coaching staff winning any awards?

If I had to award it today: Hill

DPOY

Same as always. Parsons (+190), Garrett (+190), Watt (+250), huge gap, other pass rushers. Maxx Crosby (+3300) should be getting more love. I think he’d need to find 20 sacks to really get strong consideration.

If I had to award it today: Watt

OROY

Stroud now -550 at FanDuel, which checks out. Any other bets are a wager on him getting seriously injured and missing the rest of the season I suppose.

If I had to award it today: Stroud

DROY

Jalen Carter hype train still rolling, he’s now -320 to win this with Witherspoon +350 and the rest quite a ways down. Didn’t even really have a great game vs Dallas, but a late assist on a sack in a big game was huge.

If I had to award it today: Carter

Coach of the Year

DeMeco Ryans (+400) getting some well-deserved love, but I will still stand strong on this being Campbell’s (+210) award if the Lions can hang a divisional banner. McDaniel (+450) has dropped to third fav at most places after some struggles.

If I had to award it today: Campbell

Comeback

What if Aaron Rodgers (+3000) is actually magic and plays late in the season? I may put a few bucks on that just because I would be so mad that he was actually right about the dolphin stuff and the money would help me feel better.

Hamlin is back up to -175 right now at FanDuel and even without playing is just such an easy out for voters who don’t want to think about this award.

I still like Lamar (+750) as a dark horse for those who want to give him something this year but don’t rate him as their top choice for MVP.

Josh Dobbs (+1500) has shot up the list after a fun story last week. I think it’s dumb to include him since he’s not coming back from anything, but the narrative exists for sure and if he plays well down the stretch it’ll be a thing, just like Geno.

If I had to award it today: dumb award, no one should get it