Five games ended with game-winning kicks yesterday! I’m not sure any of it helped me win any money, but it still made for a good product and an exciting afternoon with only a few games that weren’t at least close late. Really only three games all day that weren’t competitive late and it was due to non-NFL level QB play from Tommy DeVito, Will Levis, and (sorry) Trevor Lawrence.

Market

Much high in the lookahead markets, this was sitting at -9 on Halloween, reopening at -7.5 Monday morning of this past week. Took a bit of doing, but enough money came in on Denver that this finally pushed down to the -7 later in the week/yesterday.

The total has been bet up off the 45.5 opener, not really seeing resistance until it reached 47.5, now down to 47 across the board.

If you want to glean anything from an underdog getting money while the total is ticking up, I suppose it’s the market’s continued reluctance to trust the Bills’ defense after injuries have taken their toll.

Injuries

Continued bad news for the Bills’ defense with CB Christian Benford and S Micah Hyde ruled out. Terrel Bernard is questionable and would be another sizable blow as he’s been the man running the MIKE LB spot after Tremaine Edmunds left in the offseason. Tyrel Dodson moved into his spot after Bernard was ruled out last week, but he’s already a backup filling in for Matt Milano at weak-side LB, meaning you’re hitting a third level of depth at that position as well.

Everyone else on the injury report for Buffalo is expected to play. Worth monitoring Josh Allen’s shoulder and Stefon Diggs’ back. Jordan Poyer will play through a shin injury, keeping the Bills from missing yet another secondary piece.

Broncos have a clean injury report coming off the bye. Everyone’s good to go.

Matchup

The Bills (5-4) are in a bit of a rut here but have played well so far at home. The standings may show that they are 4-1 in home games, but that lone loss took place in a “home game” vs the Jaguars in London; they’ve yet to drop a game in upstate New York.

The Broncos (3-5) are starting to put it together a little bit after a very rocky start and not only are coming off the bye but getting the extra bonus day to prep for this one since it’s an MNF. With two straight home wins heading into the bye, I suppose they’re eyeing some sort of late-season drive toward a playoff spot.

This will be a good litmus test for the “Broncos defense is improving” takes. Over the past month, they have been a top-12 team in defensive EPA/play, but a ton is coming off the back of stopping the run. They’ve been incredibly stout against opposing rushing attacks but are still allowing teams over a 50% success rate on dropbacks.

Pat Surtain is a bona fide high-end CB1, but he’s not a guy who tends to follow the top receiver around and very rarely jumps into the slot. I think Buffalo’s ability to move Stefon Diggs around and pick on the other CBs should have him in line for a big game.

I would hope the Buffalo game plan is focused on getting Allen going early (they’ve struggled in the first half for the past month) and not banging their head against the wall with runs. They are at best an average rushing team and will be going up against a good defensive front. Why not just a whole mess of play-action and quick stuff taking advantage of the young tight end who’s suddenly very involved?

Can probably take this with a grain of salt since they’ve played Kelce and the Cheifs twice recently, but the Broncos are near the bottom of the league in most counting stats versus opposing tight ends, including dead last in yardage, giving up over 70 yards per game over their eight games this year. Kincaid’s upward trend should have every chance to continue tonight.

As mentioned with the injury report, the Bills are thin everywhere defensively and the Broncos have had high grades in the passing game when they go up against bad/beat-up secondaries (Bears/Packers). Outside of just Russell Wilson, I’m not exactly sure who needs to step up big for this offense to continue to improve, maybe it’s just a sum of the parts kind of thing, with plenty of passes continuing to be thrown to these running backs who can be dangerous with the ball in their hands.

If the coach you paid so handsomely for can’t come up with something good against a beleaguered defense in two weeks’ time, maybe I’ll just end up going to bed early for once.

Betting

Prime time unders are like 75-3 or whatever, but I’m willing to step in front of that train based on the matchups this week.

Even with an improving defense the Bills should be able to take advantage of the matchups that Diggs, Kincaid, and Davis will have. On the other side, I would take it as a personal affront if Denver isn’t able to move the ball against what’s left of the Bills’ defense with two weeks to prep.

Denver/Buffalo over 47

Little quicker today since I’m somehow running behind (I blame daylight’s saving time still). I’ll stick to one big thing I took away from each game.

Indy 10 - New England 6

I am actually starting to believe that Belichick could move on at some point, the Pats are a long way from being relevant right now. Currently the worst record in the AFC.

Sorry, Frankfurt.

Houston 30 - Cincinnati 27

Stroud is good, but the team’s upside is limited a bit with their secondary, still a crazy fun squad to watch and another massive notch in the belt with a road win over a playoff team.

New Orleans 19 - Minnesota 27

I think Dobbs may be good, but I KNOW Kevin O’Connell is great. The 1st half game plan with a new QB and two starting WRs missing against a good defense was just so solid. Jameis Winston somehow threw a 40-yard pass from inside the Red Zone.

Green Bay 19 - Pittsburgh 23

The Steelers were outgained again but still won. I guess I’ll just copy and paste that every week. (the pass was clearly backward though).

Tennessee 6 - Tampa Bay 20

Levis took a step back in a spot where I thought he might thrive a bit. I will begrudgingly admit that Baker has been fairly solid this year, even if it were as a wildcard team, the Bucs in the playoffs wouldn’t embarrass themselves.

San Francisco 34 - Jacksonville 3

Have to give the 49ers credit where it’s due, but the play from Trevor Lawrence was pretty rough. Now just sitting a game ahead of Houston in a division that looked won.

Atlanta 23 - Arizona 25

Kyler looked pretty decent in his first action back. No idea what the plan long-term in AZ is, but they are pesky again despite the roster. Atlanta will not be a team I figure out this year.

Cleveland 33 - Baltimore 31

Baltimore having trouble closing games isn’t giving me hope for them to finally make a playoff run. Watson deserves credit as well, he was 14/14 in the 2nd half and made some plays.

Detroit 41 - LA Chargers 38

Chargers couldn’t stop much, especially the runs. Detroit's secondary got burnt a few times. Last team with the ball kind of game, which is always fun. Detroit needs to figure out the defense a little if they want to make a run in January.

NY Giants 17 - Dallas 49

DeVito is the Giants’ best shot at drafting 1st overall. Dallas looked like the same team that has beaten the hell out of bad teams, the game was over at half (probably earlier, like “coin toss” earlier).

Washington 26 - Seattle 29

Howell continues to show some flashes of excellence and they almost got a nice road win here. Geno is somehow better in tight games rather than with a lead.

NY Jets 12 - Las Vegas 16

Two bad QBs, one total touchdown, and zero interest in revisiting this. Hail Mary was wildly close to finding a Jets receiver though, I guess at least it was a sweat until the end.

Sunday Betting: I got kicked in the ribs very hard by the NFL, but there is something to winning the final game of the day (Go Raiders) that makes you feel just a bit better about it all. The Saints never had a chance against the Passtronaut and the teaser couldn’t withstand Will Levis not being any good, but man I really thought the Ravens were going to get home. That one was a true gut punch.

Dallas -10 in the first half was a snoozer of a win and yeah the Raiders got it done in the long run, but still very much a down day with the prop bets dying on the vine as well.