NFL Week Ten Early Line Moves 📊

Week nine in the books and if the playoffs started today, Josh Dobbs and Kenny Pickett would start playoff games, while Josh Allen and Justin Herbert would not. But, many a slip twixt the cup and the lip and lots of football left, including the Bears/Panthers standalone matchup America has been clamoring for.

Final scores have a way of lying. I’m not saying the Jets deserved to win this one, the offense was much too poor for me to really die on that hill, but this for sure was closer than the scoreboard lets on.

The easy way to tell who won a Jets game: If Wilson has 49 attempts, the Jets probably lost.

The Jets outgained the Bolts, had more YPP, threw for almost twice as many yards, but went 0-2 in the red zone (one was in meaningless garbage time to be fair), turned the ball over 3 times, and went 3-17 on third down. The pressure from LA’s front four got home eight times and also kept the running game to a minimum for most of the contest.

Both offenses had pretty rough nights, but the turnovers and punt return made this one look a lot worse than it was for the Jets (again, not defending the Jets). The Chargers essentially had one half-decent drive and capitalized on it. Going 2-2 in the red zone in a game where you were outgained is massive and they’ve got themselves back in the wildcard conversation. The defensive line was a damn menace all night long.

The Jets are in a weird place now, with Zach Wilson clearly not the answer, the offensive line beat up, and Aaron Rodgers swearing that he’ll be back in a few weeks. They’re not really that far out of the playoff discussion!

Saleh says they won’t change the play-caller or quarterback at this time which sounds dumb at first, but honestly, what are the better options at this point?

I feel like I should say something nice about the Jets’ defense. They played their asses off and got pressure on well over half of Herbert’s dropbacks last night. All around great unit being wasted with the offense they’re unlucky enough to be paired up with.

Betting: Breece’s catches got home, but the yardage was short. The SGP seemed like a good idea and they did get Ekeler SEVEN targets, he just somehow only ended up with the two catches after some uncharacteristic drops.

We took the under 18.5 in the 2nd half on the halftime stream last night and it got a little sweaty thanks to the Jets fumbling late for an easy score and then deciding to put together their best drive. Better lucky than good, I suppose, but I still think it was the right side. On to week 10.

A quick roundup of the lines jumping around early in the week. We’ll go through all the games tomorrow night and hopefully find some winners. Did grab the early line on the Ravens Sunday night and am feeling better about that after a quick rewatch of the Browns game. I think Watson is in for a long day.

Bears up to -3.5 for TNF

This opened on the other side of 3 and hopefully, this is more a fade of a bad Panthers offense than a bet on Justin Fields returning. I’m not super sure it’d be a good idea on a short week if he’s still struggling to grip a ball as well as he needs to.

Houston Money in, now under a TD

Opened +7.5 and bet down to +6.5 at most joints. I understand the excitement about Stroud and the Texans, but they also just made the Tampa Bay offense look pretty lively. I’d assume the Ja’Marr Chase injury news is playing a part in this as well.

NO/MIN over getting bet

This was 39 on the look-ahead, and yeah Dobbs was fun last week as a fill-in, but this is a better defense, and Osborne and Akers suffered injuries. This one is up to as high as 41.5, maybe partially after seeing the Vikings’ defense open up a bit as well.

CLE/BAL under bet down to 37.5

Lookahead was 41 and this has gotten smashed to the under early in the week. Two best defenses in the league, divisional game, throw out the records, etc.

NYG/DAL under

Down to 38.5 off an opener of 41. Don’t think it matters if it’s DeVito or Barkley, probably not a good week to face the Dallas defense either way. This one likely comes down to how many points the Cowboys can muster.

DEN/BUF over

This one has been bet up from 45.5 to 47 early in the week and I’m a little puzzled here too. Denver’s defense is getting healthy and seems to be playing better while Josh Allen is struggling a little with his deep ball since the shoulder injury. Maybe we’ve just seen enough of the Buffalo defense getting exposed, this isn’t one I agree with.