Final early morning game of the year, so cherish it. We’re only getting 10 hours of football per Sunday from here on out. I woke up and thought about the total in this one and chuckled a little thinking about a game with Mac Jones and Gardner Minshew being more high scoring than the other Frankfurt game featuring Tua and Mahomes. Football if nothing else, it funny like that.

Not a ton of weather concerns, it’ll be raining in Seattle, but that’s what it does there. Some winds in Jacksonville, but nothing crazy.

The real nasty weather will be high winds, maybe gusting north of 30 MPH in Buffalo, but that’s a problem for tomorrow night.

Injuries

• Vikings will get TJ Hockenson back, but on a snap count due to his injured ribs. No Osborn, no Jefferson

• Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell expected to play

• Cardinals will activate RB James Connor for Sunday’s game

• Ja'Marr Chase is being called 50/50 and will be a GTD

• Texans WR Nico Collins and RB Dameon Pierce are both out on Sunday against the Bengals.

• Zay Jones is ruled out for the Jags

• Deebo Samuel is back for the 49ers, it’s a little less clear on Trent Williams as there are contradicting reports as of right now

The card for week 10:

Baltimore -6.5

Played this last Sunday night and I guess I’m a bit surprised it hasn’t seen a bit more steam. While there are still a few hiccups in this Ravens’ offense, it’s definitely looking good enough to move the ball, even against a very tough defense. The matchup that has me interested in this price though, is the Ravens defense vs Deshaun Watson. He still isn’t 100% and is now down yet another offensive tackle with Dawand Jones being ruled out after the team has already lost Wills and Conklin. Expecting plenty of pressure and hits on Watson and a lackluster offensive output by the Browns.

Las Vegas +100

Eventually, the excitement the team is feeling by getting rid of Josh McDaniels will wane, but I don’t think we’re quite there yet. This one is just another bet against the Jets’ offense though. Coming off a short week and looking very ineffective offensively for the second straight week, I’ll take the home team with the stud pass rusher as a slight dog here. The Raiders can be run on, so I’d expect a heavy dose of Breece, but if they can create long third downs, I think we’ll see another week of the Jets struggling to cross midfield.

Dallas -10 (1st Half)

Hey, here’s one of the worst 1st half teams all season (31st, 4.7 points per game), except now they don’t even have an actual QB. Losing CB Adoree Jackson for this one isn’t great either.

The injuries have hurt this Dallas defense for sure, but they still have a very good DC and the pass rushers to limit the Giants to very, very little. I don’t love laying a massive number for the full game as things can get a little wonky when you’re up three scores late, but this looks like a spot where we could see a first-half shutout.

New Orleans -3 +102

Good (6th in defensive EPA/play) defense with a week to prep for him leads me to believe that Josh Dobbs may not have another magical week. Hockenson will be on a snap count while Osborn and Jefferson are out. That means you essentially just have to lock down a rookie WR and can dictate the game a bit with your defense.

6-point teaser: Tennessee +8.5 / Arizona + 8

Moreso just because they fit nicely in the price zone I like to play teasers but still a couple of legs I like.

Tampa’s defensive injuries should really open things up for the Titans’ passing game. (I bet some Hopkins overs as well)

Arizona getting James Connor and Michael Wilson back for Kyler’s first start is a big deal. He can elevate players around him, but it’s a ton easier if he’s at least working with the starters.

Went over all the games like we do each and every week, with time stamps if you want a quick opinion on a certain one. The podcast is available for anyone who wants to listen while they watch the German game on mute.

My defensive guy Ryan Noonan already got me on the board this week with a Discord winner on TNF on T.J. Edwards and as we do on Sundays, he’s contributing a free one to share with the masses.

Brian Branch (DET) Over 5.5 Tackles + assists -130

Short and sweet this week, Ryan says:

“Branch played every snap in DET's last game before the bye, playing a hybrid slot corner/box safety role that puts him near the action. This is the premier matchup for that role, with nearly 70% of the tackles against the Chargers coming from S or CBs.”

If you want more of these, you can always head over to 4for4 and grab a sub to get full discord access (you do want more of these, Ryan is 50-29 +20.43u w/ a 22.6% ROI on Tackle + Assist props this year). Promo code BETS50 gets you half off if you’re into that.