Betting on TNF: Jets vs Browns

Market

Markets were a little funny this week with the holiday and the multiple Monday games, but this did open up Sunday night at -7 after being around -5.5/6 on the look-ahead all week heading in. It’s been some back-and-forth action but for the most part, it’s sitting around -7.5 flat now.

The Total reopened at 36 and really started to take some serious under money Wednesday morning, pushing it down from an expensive 36 to the current 34.

Weather: It did look like we may get a little rain for this one, but the threat has lessened and most places are saying that a passing shower is about all we may see. The winds should be light as well, so weather likely won’t be a factor tonight.

Injuries

In the weirdest way to start an injury report, the Browns will be without their kicker and punter. K Dustin Hopkins is already ruled out and punter Corey Bojorquez is doubtful. The Browns added Riley Patterson to the practice squad to take over kicking duties and Matt Haack to step in as the punter.

Amari Cooper, Marquise Goodwin, and Juan Thornhill are listed as questionable. It seemed that Cooper was listed as a precaution, but some reports today seem to indicate that there’s a real chance he could be held out.

Funny one to start with on the other side as well: Since Aaron Rodgers is now on the active roster, he’s on the injury report. He has been ruled out with an Achilles injury. His replacement, Zach Wilson is still out with a concussion and Trevor Siemian will once again start.

Tight end Jeremy Ruckert remains out with a concussion, OT Duane Brown was placed on the IR for his back injury, and backup RB Israel Abanlkanda is listed as questionable. If he can’t go, Dalvin Cook would slide back into the #2 spot behind Breece Hall.

Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein is also questionable with a quad injury. The team signed Austin Seibert to their practice squad Wednesday just in case.

WR Allen Lazard was a late addition to the injury report with an illness. He’s listed as questionable for tonight.

Matchup

If Amari Cooper doesn’t go, it changes the complexion of this game quite a bit. He’s had 37 targets over the past three weeks playing with Flacco and of course, had his massive game last week.

The main matchup I’m excited to watch is the Browns’ pass rush versus this beleaguered Jets’ offensive line. Having a bottom-five pass-blocking win rate as a team isn’t a recipe for success against Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith.

Although they have good corners, with Grant Delpit on the IR and Juan Thornhill questionable, they are a little thin at safety. Getting pressure early and often on Trevor Siemian could go a long way toward keeping Garrett Wilson from hurting you over the middle.

I think the onus will be placed on Breece Hall in this one again. He had SIXTEEN targets last week versus the Commanders to accompany his 20 carries. This Browns’ defense is a whole different animal, but what else has worked if Wilson is being blanketed?

I think the market number is pretty fair here and with the news coming down that Salah and staff are supposedly “safe”, I’m curious to see what sort of game plan they put out on a short week, in a lost season.

Betting

You probably missed the boat on this under, but these are two of the best defenses in the league playing against offenses with a short week to put together a game plan. Flacco has been airing it out of late, but Cooper is a legitimate threat to miss the game. At 34, I’m fine passing on this totale and digging in on props.`

As I mentioned, I expect it to be Breece-heavy again this week. Maybe not “12 catches, 20 totes” heavy, but still with the obvious loss of faith in Dalvin Cook and Israel Abanlkanda limited with an ankle injury it seems like a likely game plan to help a QB who will probably need some help.

The issue is that the Jets have been near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts per game all year. It’s ticked up a bit over the past few weeks but part of that was being in such positive game states versus Washington and Houston in their wins. I think looking at his rushing props over live if the Jets were to build a lead is a look for tonight.

I like one of my favorite tight ends tonight.

If Cooper does play, he should be the focus of the defense and Njoku has been getting targets and catches in volume since Flacco took over. I don’t see the Browns suddenly dialing back the pass/run ratio now. If Amari sits, it draws tougher assignments for Njoku, but he might have 18 damn targets as well.

Splitting a bet between his catches and yards.

Njoku over 5.5 receptions +110

Njoku over 49.5 yards -110