TNF: Texans at Jets

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Market

The Sunday opener was as low as PK, and I even saw some Houston -1 on Monday morning before getting pushed out to Jets -2 by the time MNF was over. I’m not sure if there was some hopefulness that Diggs would not miss time. It would seem that would have been misguided, considering the track record for non-contact knee injuries.

There have been some nibbles at Houston +2, but the price keeps returning after dropping to Jets -1/-1.5.

The total has teetered around 42 after some initial under money took it down from the opener of 43. Some action to the over this morning, bringing 42.5 and even some 43 back on the screen.

Injuries

TEXANS

RB Dameon Pierce (groin), OL Jarrett Patterson (concussion), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), S Jimmie Ward (groin) are all OUT for the Texans. Obviously, WR Stefon Diggs will be missing from the lineup as well after being put on the IR.

With Pierce out, we’ll likely see a bit more Dare Ogunbowale, especially with Cam Akers no longer on the roster. Patterson had been playing LG and was replaced by Kenyon Green, who will again get the start. Ward has been out since week five, while Al-Shaair has missed the past two games.

JETS

WR Allen Lazard (chest), OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), DL Leki Fotu (knee), LB C.J. Mosley (neck), S Tony Adams (hamstring), S Ashtyn Davis (concussion) are out for New York. TE Kenny Yeboah (abdomen), OL Morgan Moses (knee), and LB Chazz Surratt (heel) are questionable.

Lazard out likely means more snaps for Mike Williams and Xavier Gipson. The big concern here is losing both starting safeties (after already losing Chuck Clark two weeks ago) in what’s been a pretty strong coverage unit. I suppose the silver lining is that CB Michael Carter was back last week after missing almost three full games.

Check out the full list of week 9 injuries and practice reports

Matchup

The biggest question for anyone betting tonight: what’s the game plan for the Texans?

They are a pass-heavy team that’s now down their top two receivers, going up against a trio of good CBs. Mixon has been great, and the Jets can be run on, but still, it’s just not been their identity under OC Bobby Slowik. I still expect Mixon to have success and likely get a huge majority of the carries, considering the backup options.

Inside of that, the other question is: “What does the target share look like with Diggs out?” It should be Tank Dell as the #1, with Metchie and Hutchinson rounding out the starters and Robert Woods stepping in as well. With a strong CB1 in Sauce Gardner and Metchie and Hutch unproven, I wonder if we will see a big night (at least in terms of targets) for Dalton Schultz. The tight end had his biggest outburst of the season last week, snagging four balls on six targets for 52 yards.

While I have concerns about the WR group, the offensive line going up against the Jets’ pass rush appears to be a weakness-on-weakness matchup. Laremy Tunsil is great, and Will McDonald has gotten home a bit for the Jets, but both are greatly underperforming in my numbers this year. I’d expect CJ Stroud to have time to throw.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets offense hasn’t actually been bad; it is more average than anything. I tend to focus on the coaching, but Rodgers isn’t blameless either, with some bad throws leading to turnovers. It’s feeling a bit similar to last year’s Bucs. A ton of running (with low success) on early downs and asking a QB to bail them out with 3rd down conversions. This roster would seem to be able to make it happen, but if they are going to go ahead and be in clear passing downs all night, I would put my money on the Texans’ pass rush getting home multiple times.

Despite the injuries, this Houston secondary has put up some nice numbers, partially due to the pressure they’ve been able to generate up front. Houston playing with five DBs damn near constantly and still averaging the third most sacks per game (3.4 from a 9.93% sack rate) is sort of incredible. This has been a big part of why they’ve managed to stay winning despite seeing the offense sputter without Nico Collins.

I went into this one leaning toward the Jets and agreeing with the market movement, but as the day has gone on, I’m starting to see why this team has lost five straight games.

Betting

My numbers say Houston, my eye test says New York, and my better judgment says I’m not banking on a ton from either coaching staff on a short week and should stay clear.

Since I’m feeling myself a bit after a nice MNF, I will stick to some props again and find a good halftime bet with Drew later on.

Dalton Schultz over 43.5 yards receiving -110

Joe Mixon 100+ yards rushing +175

Robert Woods over 2.5 catches +129

Tyler Conklin over 25.5 yards receiving -108

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