Lions at Packers, TNF Best Bets

Market

Look-ahead price on this one was actually Packers -1 at some shops but did get around to the Lions being a short favorite, which is where it opened again on Sunday night. The line has been holding pretty steady at Lions -2 despite injury news on both sides coming into the short week.

The look-ahead total was 46 but opened lower on Sunday night (44.5/45) and has been slowly and steadily been bet up to 46 again. A few places are starting to shade back to the under despite some good news on the offensive side for Green Bay.

All week 4 betting odds

Matchup

The Packers will again be without David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins up front but finally get their deep threat WR Christian Watson and will also see the return of RB Aaron Jones (last seen knocking out 4.5/carry vs. the Bears). They’ll also be without LB De’Vondre Campbell on the other side of the ball, and possibly/probably CB Jaire Alexander. The missing defenders might matter a ton against the run and pass, respectively.

Conflicting reports this morning for the Lions, first saying that LT Taylor Decker and RB David Montgomery would be out, now hearing that both will suit up tonight. The Lions’ offensive line was a strength coming into the season but has taken some blows so far. Right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai was ruled out in addition to Matt Nelson not being able to go. Nelson is depth, but matters if Decker can’t finish the game as the next man up would be a fifth-round rookie.

With both defenses missing pieces, the hope would be some offensive fireworks, but on a short week, against a divisional foe, we’re not often rewarded with what we want via some scaled-back game plans. As I’m finishing this, some under money is coming in pushing this total towards 45.5 again. Both teams have been more efficient through the air, but both teams also lost their starting running backs at some point.

Obviously excited to finally see Jordan Love with his full complement of weapons. Both offenses have an upside we haven’t really gotten to see a ton of yet this year and will be going against middle-of-the-road defenses. I have this price closer to a pick’em in my numbers, but understand the market being a little out on Jordan Love so far. I’m still in on him and do want to point out that he’s been great about avoiding turnovers despite working with a crazy inexperienced WR/TE group.

Betting

Leanings: Green Bay +2 / Under 45.5

I wonder about the amount of snaps we’ll see from some of the guys returning from injuries. Watson may not get his full compliment and Jones may be spelled by AJ Dillon more often than usual, just not getting a good enough read on that to sort it out.

I did play look at some Sam LaPorta alt yards over props and may dabble. Teams have targeted the tight ends quite heavily vs. this Packers secondary and LaPorta has 22 targets on the season already for 18 catches and 180 yards. If ARSB is stymied a bit, the youngster could have another big day. 60+ yards is +178 at FanDuel, 80+ is +370. Just need one of these:

That said, props aren’t my forte and while I’ll likely have a small bet on the Packers straight up as well, my money will be mostly tied up in a teaser. Like I said, I make this game a pick’em by my pricing and do like the Packers to look better on offense this week. With the price falling into the basic strategy/Wong zone, the only question it leaves is “What’s the other leg?”

I’ll rank all my teaser legs for the weekend tomorrow but for now, my favorite of the Sunday games is the Eagles. I was a bit off-market on them last week and managed to get through the flu game unscathed. The big knock on them for sure is the short week of prep for a divisional road game, but I make the price nearly -10 in my numbers and am more than happy to tease the current -8 down to -2 as a second leg here.

I usually keep these balanced, splitting them between both teams, even in a spot where one team is a sizeable favorite, but for the most part, I just didn’t care for a lot of the Lions’ pricing and ended up with too many Packers. We’ll see how that goes.

Mostly just price plays considering their usage, routes run (hard to sort out how much Watson affects that, so I went aggressive on his usage), red zone targets, and how these receivers match up against these secondaries.

Shopped out the best prices I could find:

Sam LaPorta +1400 (FanDuel)

Luke Musgrave +1800 (DraftKings)

Jayden Reed +2200 (DraftKings)

Dontayvion Wicks +4000 (BetMGM)

Four rookies. What could go wrong?

Still don’t think I’m entering this market, but I’ll be tracking the odds each week and waiting for news or any info on how voters are leaning here.

3 weeks, and 3 inactives for Damar Hamlin.  

He’s down to -120 from -150 last week. Tua is now +165 and I guess there’s nothing saying you can’t win this AND MVP. Still think voters may look elsewhere if Tua gets the big prize.

Another mover this last week was T.J. Watt, who missed 7 games last year and has already eclipsed his sack total from 2022 with six through three games. He’s now +1300, down from 20/1. It’s an interesting case as I mentioned last week… a nice consolation prize if he’s getting 2nd place votes for DPOY.

Current Odds

Good luck with your wagers tonight, and here’s to a LaPorta seam route TD to start things out.