Some quick notes

P.J. Walker implying that he’ll have media availability on a Friday…..

Not looking great for DJ in NY either

Talked about this during the podcast last night, wondering if the 49ers would again spend the week in West Virginia. The answer is apparently no:

Market

This total has come way down, mostly based on the weather reports heading into the game. With 15+ mph sustained winds and gusts up to 30 mph, this has come all the way to 47 (or lower) from openers as high as 52.

The point spread has hung pretty steadily on the Chiefs’ side of ten, getting bet down a few times to the -10 range but always bouncing back up with some KC money.

Matchup

With the news of Ms. Swift being announced as an attendee, it was assumed that Kelce would be a go and we did finally get actual confirmation on this. LB Nick Bolton is expected to go, but there are worries that pass rusher George Karlaftis will miss the game with his hamstring injury, he’s listed as questionable.

On the Broncos' side, pass rusher Frank Clark was listed on the injury report as having an illness, but now that situation has escalated to him not being a Bronco for much longer.

Additionally, DT D.J. Jones and LB Baron Browning had been ruled out with their injuries, TE Greg Dulchich is questionable but seems like he’s a go after being activated off IR.

This one will feature a couple of teams near the bottom of the league in rush EPA/play on defense in a game that might heavily feature the ground game. In a normal world, I’d give a hard look at the underdog here if you really believe the weather can even the gap in QB skill here, but Patrick Mahomes tends to make people who believe in things like that look stupid (at least straight-up, against the spread may be another story).

Even with the piss-poor defense, Russ is coming around a bit and if you made me take a side here, I’d take the 10.5 with the Broncos on the road, very begrudgingly.

Betting

Not getting too cute with this due to the extenuating circumstances of the weather, the fact that Andy Reid can sometimes punt on a game plan vs a bad team and it being a TNF.

While the KC EPA/rush is just middling, this is a great spot to find some success on the ground if you’re looking to avoid the issue involved with throwing in high winds. Small bets on a few props while I sort out the action for the weekend:

Jerrick McKinnon rushing + receiving over 25.5 -114

Kadarius Toney under 3.5 receptions -135

Marvin Mims over 20.5 receiving yards -110

I went ahead and bugged noted golf betting sharp and DFS genius, Link Calhoun about some first TD scorers this morning. Despite being wildly busy, he took a chunk of time out of his morning and laid these at my feet. I shopped around and found the best legal prices I could muster:

Skyy Moore +1700 (DK)

Jerick McKinnon +1800 (MGM)

Jerry Jeudy +1800 (MGM)

Marvin Mims Jr. +4000 (MGM)

Golf (betting, not playing), a sick dog (he’s fine), and other real-life stuff have put me behind a bit this week, but I’m still tracking all betting odds for the awards markets and have some quick hitters for each:

• MVP: Mahomes deserved favorite, but huge weeks from Tua or just continued steady excellence from Purdy can threaten that. Jalen Hurts not getting the love he was last year, despite solid numbers, beating the 49ers in a few weeks would do wonders for that.

• OPOY: Obviously our BIG THREE has lost a member with JJ going to IR. Tyreek upper hand with his usage if the 49er ever dial back. Both Hill and CMC are in line for big weeks based on matchups, although maybe the Browns stiffen up against the 49ers RB. Ja’Marr Chase a longer shot to monitor?

• DPOY: Same as it ever was. Parsons, Watt, and Garrett at the top by themselves. Hutchinson trying to push his way into the convo. Khalil Mack (and a few others) tied for 2nd in the league with 6 sacks, but 100/1? A couple of big weeks could move one of those guys way up if you really wanna get dumb with a big price.

• OROY: Achane is probably out of the conversation now with Stroud, Puka, and Bijan still holding firm at the top. Jordan Addison an interesting name as about 150 damn targets just were vacated. A long IR stint for JJ would be massive for him. (20/1 at DK)

• DPOY: Carter is now out to -175 with Witherspoon on his tail after a big week before the bye. I'm not sure Spoon can find enough game states to have huge games, but he’s for sure a solid player. I don’t see a long price that entices me unless you still want to buy on Will Anderson.

• Coach of the Year: Dan and Mike, as it should be. I’m holding a 33/1 on Shanny so I will use this platform to say that he should win this if he goes 15-2 or better with a 7th-round pick at QB.

• Comeback: Hamlin dropped back down to around -200, but with more and more defensive injuries for the Bills, he may be dressing more games going forward. No appetite to fade that yet.

Good luck with your wagers tonight, and here’s hoping this game isn’t horrible.