Market

The look-ahead price for this was -5.5 last week. It opened a shade lower, but immediately took Commanders’ money, driving this all the way up to -7 or higher at a few shops on Monday. Some buyback on Chicago has this back down to the current -6.

The Total took a similar arc, opening 44 after a slightly lower look ahead and getting bet up to 45 a couple of times early in the week before meeting resistance. It’s been bouncing between 44 and 45 steadily since Tuesday.

All week 5 betting odds

Matchup

The Bears again will be beat up and short-handed in the defensive secondary.

With two CBs already on the IR, they will again be without corner Jaylon Johnson and safety Eddie Jackson. Safety Jaquan Brisker is also listed as questionable after a limited Friday practice. OT Tevin Jenkins has been designated to return after a stint on the IR, practiced all week, and is listed as questionable. If he goes at left guard, the assumption is that Cody Whitehair would then move back to center, further strengthening the overall OL.

WR Chase Claypool will remain out, and presumably not with the team again.

The Commanders are fairly healthy and have no injury designations for either of the WRs with health concerns. Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel are both a full go.

Howell looked much better last week after a brutal showing vs. Buffalo in week three but still has been a little rough under pressure, taking five sacks last week to go along with the nine from the week prior. With the full complement of weapons healthy, at home and against an ailing defense, you’d think we’d see more of the Howell we saw in the Denver game (and parts of the Philly matchup!)

The Bears offense looked a little lively at times last week, albeit versus a really disappointing Denver squad. In the end, they did give up the lead and lost, again. But, seeing Fields look comfortable and confident at certain moments in that game was the first real silver lining the Bears faithful have had this year so far.

If it was actual growth and not just a weak offense looking serviceable for a little bit against a bad defense, the Bears can stay in this one. If it was a fleeting glimpse at something we won’t get against a good pass rush, this one might get ugly. Even with the short week, I trust Bieniemy over Luke Getsy, especially with the bonus of getting to see the Chiefs play this Bears defense knowing what he does about how KC game plans.

Betting

TNF can be a little weird with the short week to prepare, especially for inexperienced coaches. Matt Eberflus does have a Thursday game under his belt, strangely enough against this same team in week six last year.

Obviously an ugly one at first glance, but the Bears offense was fairly decent here. They racked up nearly 400 yards of offense but, were snakebitten on turnovers (2-0) and went 0-3 in the red zone, having drives end at the 1, 4, and 5-yard line with ZERO points between them.

Not much action for me in this one, I like the Commies to cover the number if they win and love their pass rush against this Bears front if they are leading in the 2H. Will enjoy taking them and maybe an under at the half as they have several running backs who can lead them on long, clock-killing drives here.

Some of this has been matchups, but the Bears have been atrocious versus running backs. Not just against the run, against running backs. Denver leads in this with the Miami game really tilting the scales, but the Bears are near the bottom of the league when it comes to yardage given up on the ground & through the air to RBs, and have given up 8 combined TDs. I’m leaning on both of Washington's backs in the total yardage prices, expecting to hit one, and feeling like I can hit both.

Despite the success I outlined above, staying away from the RBs here with the current pricing. Weekly dose of picking the wrong tight ends, but I love Tonyan in a spot where the loss of Claypool may turn into more 2-TE sets for the Bears. As always, I hunted down the best pricing I could find.

Justin Fields +950 (FD)

Terry McLaurin +1000 (FD)

Logan Thomas +1500 (FD)

Robert Tonyan +6500 (FD)