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Off the Top
First things first. I’m betting on the Broncos here.
My fair pricing, according to my power ratings, has this game close to a straight-up pick ‘em. I don’t always go strictly by the power numbers, but I like the matchup we’ll see against a Chargers defense that is seemingly getting worse as the season winds down.
I’ll be playing:
Denver ML +130
Teaser: Denver +8.5 / Cincinnati -1.5
Ladd McConkey under 69.5 receiving yards -125
With the Chiefs already clinching the AFC West, we’ve got two teams likely locked into the 6 and 7 seeds for the AFC playoffs. Although there’s still football to be played and the Steelers and Ravens lock horns this Saturday, the winner could make a play at sliding up to the five spots.
It’s tough to take a ton away from the first matchup between these teams since it was back in early October. JK Dobbins had a big day, and Nix struggled a bit. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut, but since they last played, the Broncos have seen enough improvement for me to have them rated just inside the top half of the league, while the Chargers are still about where they’ve been most of the year, right in the middle.
I’m expecting the injuries to the Chargers secondary to matter and for Cam Sutton to have another big day here. We talked a little on the podcast this week about Mike Tomlin having a bad record on short weeks when we were discussing the Saturday games. Sean Payton is the opposite, with an above-average record with less time to prep.
Calling it Denver 24 - LA 21
How good is the Denver Defense?
Whenever something seems too good to be true, I try to find some holes to poke in it but there seem to be precious few when it comes to this team.
Zach Allen only has five sacks as an interior guy, but leads all DTs in pass rush win rate, while his linemate D.J. Jones is the NFL leader in run stop win rate. Nik Bonitto doesn’t need much pumping up after the big plays he’s made over the past few weeks, but he’s also among the leaders in pass rush win rates among edge players, essentially tied with T.J. Watt for % of plays where he beats his block while pass rushing.
Bonitto’s big plays beg the question: are the Broncos' successes propped up by big-play turnovers? While that’s certainly the case, removing all plays with turnovers and comparing them to the rest of the league still has the Denver Broncos rated as the top team in the NFL. They’re getting it done with solid adjustments, constant wins in the trenches, and great coverage. The turnovers are a cherry on top.
Finally, I looked at opponents and went to DVOA, which famously adjusts for opponents when rating teams. The Denver Broncos again, lead the league in a defensive metric, even when adjusting for who you played.
It should not go without mentioning that Vance Joseph is doing a hell of a job as a DC. While the Colts for sure pissed that game away at times, the team did a nice job of bouncing back in the secondary by inserting the rookie CB Kris Abrams-Draine instead of another week of Levi Wallace (go look at Jerry Jeudy’s game logs). Vance deserves at least some credit for the emergence of Bonitto, the continued dominance of Pat Sutain, and the rest of the success this team is having defensively.
Denver at LA Chargers -2.5 / 41.5
Injury Report
CB Riley Moss will once again be out for the Broncos. RB Jaleel McLaughlin is also ruled out.
The Chargers will also be missing a cornerback with Cam Hart still in the concussion protocol. TE Will Dissly will miss another game with his shoulder injury and DB Elijah Molden is listed as doubtful.
TE Hayden Hurst (hip), G Zion Johnson (ankle), LB Denzel Perryman (groin), and DL Otito Ogbonnia (pelvis) are listed as questionable for Los Angeles.
Quarterback Justin Herbert is not on the injury report but is likely still dealing with an ankle injury that could affect his mobility.
The Rest of the Games:
Pick a game, click a time stamp, argue with us in the comments, and have a happy holiday.