Thursday Night Football

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A quick one today, as I’d prefer to spend the afternoon digging into GB/HOU, KC/SF, MIN/DET, and the awards markets. Maybe we get a funny one tonight, more likely it’s reminiscent of the old Jags-Titans TNFs of years gone by. Either way, I’ll check in at halftime with Drew, and we’ll end up betting this 2nd half.

Market

Nothing but Broncos money with a laundry list of Saints injuries, moving all the way out to Denver -3 from the opening pick’em. There has been a little resistance as we approach the key number.

The total has held fairly steady at around 37.

Injuries

Deep Breath

For the Saints:

• QB Derek Carr Doubtful

• TE Tasom Hill Doubtful

• WR Chris Olave OUT

• WR Rashid Shaheed OUT

• LB Pete Werner OUT

• C Cesar Ruiz OUT

• G Lucas Patrick Questionable

• DT Khalen Saunders Questionable

The Broncos are healthier from a numbers standpoint, but they will be missing what’s likely their best player in CB Patrick Surtain tonight as he’s still in the concussion protocol. OT Alex Palczewski will also be out with an ankle injury, leaving the Broncos down two starting offensive linemen with center Luke Wattenberg on IR. Alex Forsyth and Matt Peart will fill in at center and RT, respectively.

Matchup

What a journey it’s been with the Saints from a rating standpoint.

From “Are they elite?” to “Can they field a whole team?”

It’s exceedingly difficult to price this team as currently rostered, but they are home, and Rattler has a game under his belt. The injuries, the short week to prep, and the opponent just make it hard for me to see the Saints even having the success they did last week.

The Denver defense has been getting it done in ways I wasn’t expecting this year. I considered them a good coverage team with above-average linebackers, but this pass rush has really taken it up a notch. In fact they are currently 1st in the league in pass rush win rate after six weeks.

Missing Suratin stinks, but Riley Moss has been a sneaky-good 2nd CB and isn’t going to face any top WRs in this one. If this pass rush continues to work out against a beat up offensive line, I would think Denver can really limit what Rattler does in this one.

Despite last week's scoreline, the Saints’ defense is still a good unit; they just really need to clean up the tackling. Bo Nix and this group of receivers are a step down from what Tampa Bay brings, but they still gave up 200+ yards of YAC, partially because of 15 missed tackles just four days ago. The Denver play calling has been anything but aggressive, but even the short stuff can become a problem when you can’t bring the ball carrier to the ground.

As for either offense, I’ll say it again: it’s a short week for rookie QBs; this might be a bit vanilla from a game-planning standpoint. Denver hasn’t been a team that pushes the ball down the field as it is, and the Saints are down to WR1 Bub Means. The easy fallback option would be leaning into the run, but both teams are experiencing injuries on the OL as well. I’m not sure what I’d do as an offensive coordinator looking to keep the season from slipping away.

Betting

Surprised to see some steam to the over today, I think the absence of star CB Patrick Surtain is mitigated a bit by the top two WRs being out for the Saints. I trust these offenses to put together decent game plans but it’s still trying to get a game plan installed for two rookie QBs on a short week, both with offensive line injuries and massive questions at the offensive skill group level. Not on of my stronger angles for the week, but I’ll ride with a TNF under here.

Here’s hoping the turnovers are on the right side of the 50 and the offensive players can tackle.

BET: under 37.5 -114

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