Thursday Night Football

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Market

This one was Vikes -3/46.5 on the lookahead and opened farily close on the side with juicy -3s or some -3.5s. Rams’ money has come in strongly enough to see this dip below the key number several times, but the -2.5s with extra juice have been gobbled up quickly.

The total reopened 46.5/47 and was bet up early in the week, finding some resistance at 48, where it currently resides.

Injuries

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota will be without LB Blake Cashman who is out with a toe injury. CB Akayleb Evans (hip), TE TJ Hockenson (knee), and G Dalton Risner (back) are listed as questionable.

There is a possibility that Hockenson would be on a snap count if he does return.

Los Angeles Rams

LB Troy Reeder (hamstring) is out, as are WR Jordan Whittington (shoulder) & OL Joe Noteboom (ankle).

DE Braden Fiske (back), NT Neville Gallimore (shoulder), and WR Puka Nacua (knee) are questionable.

Cooper Kupp has no designation and will play, we just don’t know if reports of him being on a pitch count hold water or not. I felt like the Puka Nacua stuff was gamesmanship, but he has been out for like five full weeks at this point, so maybe he’s playing, even in a limited role, tonight.

NFL Week Eight Injury Updates

Matchup

Bit of a toughie considering the guessing game around the availability and usage of the Rams WRs and where they think the season is headed. As discussed many times, players don’t tank, coaches don’t tank, front offices tank. Despite the rumors of wanting to move Cooper Kupp, the fact that they are putting him out on the field tonight and possibly escalating Puka Nacua’s return has me believing they are still intent on saving the season (that could change as soon as halftime I suppose if they were at a big deficit).

Maybe the team’s posturing is all smoke and mirrors. If we see Kupp rotating out for Tyler Johnson early and often, I suppose we could have been fooled.

The Vikings' defense is still good, I believe. The Lions are a very hard team to defend when they are clicking, and Minnesota’s season as a whole still shows pretty good metrics in what matters. When a team is leading constantly, it does require a bit of context to figure things out. Minny gives up a ton of passing yards, but again, so much of that is in game states where they have multi-score leads.

Flores, coming off the team’s worst defensive output against a MUCH easier opposing offensive line, should be able to find the QB. The Rams have had some guys in an out of the lineup up front, but so far on the season they are 20th in sack% and 27th in Pass Block Win Rate. The Rams have faced pressure on 32.9% of dropbacks, good for 6th worst this year.

On the other hand, while I do rate the Rams' defense a bit higher than the market, it is a team that you can run on if you have the right personnel. They rank 26th in running success rate and 29th in rush EPA/play, giving up 9.5 first downs on the ground per game (31st). I may fire up some Aaron Jones props if it looks like the Vikings could lean on the run in the 2H.

Betting

The total is a bit high for my liking in a Thursday Night game. As I said, I think Minnesota’s pass rush and run defense matchup is much better this week against a team with a short time to prep an offensive game plan that may be shuffling around the WR room a bit. Trying to thaw out a bit after a tough week seven. The Rams are 25th in the league in Red Zone percentage and have a tough test, even with the god of slot receivers back in the fold.

UNDER 48 -110

It has been a while, and honestly, thank god I have been laying off of these. Nothing but chalk running backs and WR1s scoring first TDs all year as it is. Maybe I’ll buy the WR2/TE dip here and spray a few shots for tonight. I hope we don’t cash this until the early 4th quarter, for the record.

Jordan Addison +1100
Colby Parkinson +2000
Jalen Nailor +1800
Demarcus Robinson +2800

and lastly, the only stat that matters this week. 80,000!

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