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Market

The lookahead price here was -7, but after a tough week for Dallas, we saw this reopen at -4 or -4.5 at most shops. It has been bet up a bit, with Dallas money pushing it out to -5.5, but not really a meaningful move across a dead number.

The total has only seen action to the over, for the most part, finally seeing some resistance at 45 after opening at 43 last Sunday.

Injuries

For Dallas, CB Caelen Carson and S Markquese Bell will be game-time decisions. Both are DOUBTFUL for Thursday.

The Giants will be missing two defensive backs as well with CBs Adoree Jackson and Dru Phillips ruled out already. They will be getting CB Nick McCloud back after he missed two games with a knee injury. WR Darius Slayton is listed as questionable after hurting his thumb. He had X-rays on it this week, but they came back negative.

Check out all Week 4 Injury Updates

DAL @ NYG: Matchup

Despite the fact that Cleveland is in the tank a bit, a big takeaway from looking into the Dallas results is that they’ve clearly had a tough stretch of opposing defenses to start against. Even if they aren’t at the highs of last year, Baltimore is a very good unit, and the Browns and Saints remain in the top ten in my defensive ratings as well.

Which brings us to the Giants, a consensus bottom half of the league defense who’s strength (Dexter Lawrence) is going up against a top-end offensive line. Throw in a couple of defensive back injuries and one CeeDee Lamb and you’ve got the recipe for a get right game for Dak and the offense.

In fact, while the Giants actually measure near the middle of the pack in some EPA measures on defense, a weakness has been success rate against the run. Dallas getting anything from the group of backs they’ve put together would be massive, especially if they’re playing with a lead.

As for the Giants, this is where Daboll proves that he’s still got it as a play caller. Teams know what Malik Nabers is now. They understand that he’s who you’ll need to stop in the passing game. A good coordinator can still scheme him open. A good game planner has the plays and adjustments ready to keep scheming him open. Daniel Jones may have had a rough start to the season, but a absolute freak like Nabers can do wonders for a passer.

Betting

My numbers say Dallas should be a bigger favorite here, but the eye test isn’t matching the quality of the names on the roster for me. It’s been a struggle watching them the past two weeks, and after three weeks of the Browns, that opening weekend win doesn’t carry the weight it did.

Still, I trusted my pricing and matchup evaluation and ended up taking a small position on Dallas -3 1st half. They have been poor playing from behind outside of some garbage last week, and I don’t think we can sniff a full game cover unless they’re able to start fast out of the gate like we saw in week one. With the Giant's secondary beat up, Lamb should be able to dominating.

BET: Dallas +3 -110

Defensive Rookie of the Year

No one is separating yet, which means it’s time to dig in on what might be a fun market to take some shots on. I spent a chunk of time looking at usage, predicting future opportunities, crossing off off-ball linebackers, and trying to make sense of it all.

The Rams Jared Verse has flashed a bit, but a decent number of the rest of the names near the top have been injured. Dallas Turner and Byron Murphy II seem likely to miss time this week.

A few names that are interesting.

Laiatu Latu +600 - DE Indianapolis

Not the 6/1 is anything to write home about, but Latu may be the only enticing price near the top. He had a strip sack and leads all rookies (and his own team) in pressure rate. He’s only playing about 40% of defensive snaps, but I could see that increasing as he begins to prove himself valuable. With DE Samson Ebukam out for the year and Kwity Paye banged up as well, it makes sense to get him out there on more than just obvious passing downs.

With Dallas Turner looking like he’ll be more of a depth piece in Minnesota Jared Verse seemingly unlikely to continue as the favorite, I took some Latu.

Kamari Lassiter +1200 - CB Houston

He’s starting and playing on almost every down, which is the first box to check for a non-edge rusher. I think he’s the only rookie DB with a in interception (someone may want to double check that), but it’s very hard to guess on counting stats like that. I think the upside case may rely a bit on Derek Stingley. If he becomes the CB that is being targeted more, with Stingley progressing as a shutdown guy, he’ll have the opportunities to not only shine but to pick up some interceptions.

If you’re interested in trying to find the DB who catches a bunch of tipped balls, I think you start with playing time like I said. Tyler Nubin (S, NYG), Javon Bullard (S, GB), Terrion Arnold (CB, DET), and Mike Sainristil (CB, WAS) are playing a ton, out of necessity. I did NOT bet Lassiter, nor any of these other DBs. It’s hard catching the falling knife for “which guy gets some tipped ball INTS” when you don’t have a clear stud like Sauce Gardner.

Jonah Elliss +4500 - OLB Denver

Down to the longer shot portion of the dive. Jonah Elliss has:

• Played more snaps than the week before each week

• Got on the board with a sack against Pittsburgh and had three more pressures last week

• More opportunities moving forward? Hopefully. He’s listed on the right side behind Jonathan Cooper, but they had him lined up on the left side a handful of times last week across from Cooper. This would be ideal.

I held off on betting Elliss with a tough matchup vs. the Jets on deck, but I will have some bullets ready to fire on him.

DEEP CUT: Chris Braswell +8000 - EDGE Tampa Bay

He’s not getting a ton of snaps yet, but it's definitely part of the rotation down in Tampa. With the pass rush numbers not looking great, I wonder if he gets more involved going forward. He’s been moved around a bit and did have a couple of QB hits last week. He finished his career at Alabama with 8 sacks and a pick in 14 games. If he starts to “get it”, he has a pretty big advantage in this market: he’s a pass rusher. I took a small swing on his price.

TL;DR

I bet Latu at +600 and Braswell at +8000 because sacks make racks. Will likely add Elliss to the portfolio at some point while keeping an eye on everyone else.