Three divisional matchups, first one starts soon, no time to write much in any sort of preamble here, just getting right into it before I have to help cook.

Market

A little back and forth on this side with some shops seeing expensive -7s or some cheap -8s, but for the most part, we’ve been sitting at Lions -7.5 for most of this (short) cycle.

The total has seen steady action to the over from the jump. The look-ahead last week was 44.5, opening slightly higher Sunday at 45. Up to 47.5 by Monday afternoon, there’s been some resistance there but for now, we’re back up above 47 at some places.

Injuries

Green Bay is injured. Not only were they forced to put TE Luke Musgrave and RB Emmanuel Wilson on IR this week, but they’ll be missing key pieces.

Top RB Aaron Jones will be out for this one, as will safety Darnell Savage and another TE, Josiah Deguara. Savage is coming back from injury and is in the 21-day practice window, he’s just yet to be activated.

CB Jaire Alexander, LB De’Vondre Campbell, RB A.J. Dillon, S Rudy Ford, and WR Dontayvion Wicks are all listed as questionable. The only really good news for GB was that Campbell was a full participant in practice on Wednesday (estimated, Green Bay didn’t actually practice this week). He’s massive to this defense, especially against a pair of good running backs.

Detroit’s injury report is very short: G Jonah Jackson will miss the with wrist and knee injuries. Goff should finally have all his offensive weapons healthy and ready to go.

Matchup

As I thought about the fact that this market has hung pretty steady at -7.5 despite all the injuries for Green Bay, I was forced to reckon with a pretty glaring weakness for an 8-2 team. Detroit’s defense hasn’t taken a meaningful step forward despite some off-season additions through the draft and the free agency. I think we know that the Lions can be a very dangerous offense, even when they scuffle around a bit and don’t look great for three quarters (like last week).

So the big question to answer in this one: Can Jordan Love and the offense get things going against this Lions defense? That might be the entire handicap here.

The Bears were not able to get the running backs going last week, but when Justin Fields took off on scrambles it was a big problem for Detroit. Obviously, Jordan Love doesn’t have that in his bag and we’ll likely need to see an inconsistent group of WRs open things up, especially deep where the Lions have been a bit susceptible.

Bit of a weakness-on-weakness trash matchup, with a Lions secondary that allows a 48% dropback success rate (23rd) and a GB offense that has only put up a 44.5% SR so far this season (20th). If Love is able to make more accurate passes than usual and find his young receivers against a team that will give up big plays, then this spread will be in doubt. If the absences of Jones and Musgrave are too much, then I don’t see how they keep pace with Detroit.

We saw some flashes from the Pack last week, but the sad reality is that the Chargers’ defense is worse than the Lions, it’s just hard to reckon with that fact given the big names they carry.

As for Detroit, maybe we can overlook the defensive deficiencies if we are able to get a better performance from this offense. They have one of the best offensive line units in the league and grade out extremely well in run blocking against a team that is very beat up defensively.

Prediction: Detroit 31 - Green Bay 17

Market

Heavy Cowboys money on Wednesday afternoon and evening, pushing this out to -13.5 after sitting around -11 for most of the early week and into yesterday morning. Some playback today, with a few places back down to -13.

This lookahead total was 45, but opened higher, with most places that throw up a Sunday number starting at 46.5. Over money all week with some buyback at 49 Wednesday afternoon. Currently sitting at 48.5.

Injuries

The Commanders will be without rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes, who injured his elbow against the Giants. FB Alex Armah and DE James Smith-Williams will also be out.

LB Khaleke Hudson and RB Antonio Gibson are listed as questionable

The biggest concern coming into this was CeeDee Lamb’s status. He’s not carrying an injury designation, but I still wonder if he’s actually 100%.

Jayron Kearse is listed as doubtful. RB Rico Dowdle is questionable, but expected to play according to reports this morning.

Matchup

Is this another situation where the Cowboys will beat up on a bad team? Yeah, there was the weird hiccup against the Cardinals in week three, but in the other three games where they were a large favorite, this team has covered on average by 12 points, even with some garbage time points against them.

Washington’s defense is obviously in a bad place right now. I realize the turnovers were what doomed them, but to let Tommy DeVito dice you up once he got the ball wasn’t great. Forbes was struggling, but he was playing for a reason, he was likely better than his replacement. Now they go from having to keep a lid on the lowly Giants WRs to facing one of the most dangerous receiving rooms in the league.

It’s a reductive stat, but it’s built on the back of more predictive ones: The Commanders give up 27.7 points per game. This is dead last. The Cowboys have scored 30.2 points per game this year, good for 2nd in the league.

Sure we can get some odd game state that we see week in and week out where a good offense gives the ball away a bunch and struggles, but for the most part, I think it’s a safe bet that the Cowboys will score at home in this one. So, again, like the first game of the day, this one will come down to a young QB’s ability to move the ball against the home team in order to keep it close.

I think we’ll sort this one out early. Dallas has been a very good third-down defense and we all know that Howell has trouble against pressure. If the Commanders are working to get the ball out quickly and avoiding long third downs, they will be able to move the ball. The Cowboys can also be run on a bit, but that may go out the window if the scoreboard starts to light up for Dallas.

Dallas’ defense is still good, but it’s not the same team that came into this season after losing some key pieces. If the Washington game plan is wasting downs and Howell is holding the ball too long, this game might suck (unless you’re a Cowboys fan).

Prediction: Commanders 18 - Cowboys 33

Market

I don’t know for sure if we’re getting Geno Smith (Pete Carroll says so, he’s still listed as Q), but the market has taken this from SF -6.5 off the open to the -7.5 we’re seeing now and I’d imagine the prospects of Drew Lock or a less-than-100% Smith have played some part. Some books are back down to -7 as we continue to see some two-way action.

Less movement on this total, with slight action to the over. Openers were 43/43.5 and for the most part, the market has ticked up to 44.

Injuries

The 49ers are dealing with a couple of injuries up front. Guard Aaron Banks is listed as questionable and has a chance to be activated off the IR to play in this one according to Shanny. Guard Spencer Burford is nursing a knee injury and is also questionable.

DE Robert Beal and CB Samuel Womack are both also listed as questionable with designated for return statuses after missing time.

Pete Carroll says that Geno Smith will play. How effective he’ll be remains to be seen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Drew Lock was doing some prepping and keeping that arm warm.

Kenneth Walker is listed as doubtful but has already pretty much been ruled out. OT Abe Lucas was activated to the roster, but he’s not expected to take his place with the starters just yet. Jason Peters is expected to go again after getting a good portion of the snaps against Washington and LA.

Jamal Adams has no injury designation.

Matchup

Over the past month, the Seahawks have been a bad defense against the run, giving up 0.03 EPA/play on the ground, 30th in the league. The 49ers have Christian McCaffrey. I guess that concludes this one.

…

Seriously though, the Seattle defense is a tough one to figure out, we’ve seen some improvements through the scheme, but again, since week 8 they are the 28th ranked defense in EPA/play. They are one of the teams that made Howell look good and tricked us into believing in him again. They were able to limit a Rams team last week, but giving up 29 to Washington and 37 to Baltimore seems closer to what we may want to expect here.

The 49ers are still a good defense but have seen teams able to beat their secondary a little more than I suppose I expected. Now a team that will be missing a key piece in Talanoa Hufanga, can they shut down an even better set of WRs on the road here? What I saw last week from Baker Mayfield gave me a glimmer of hope for teams that are rostered with a strong passing game unit.

I think I know what we’ll get from Purdy, Deebo, CMC, Aiyuk, Kittle, etc. Even with a fully healthy Geno, I like the 49ers to get it done on the road, but it’s a lot of points to lay, hence the teaser.

Prediction: 49ers 27 - Seahawks 20

ICYMI:

I posted this yesterday, but in case you missed it, Connor has a few props he likes for today with some write-ups. (one is doubled up with one of mine, so we’ll just call it TWO props he likes for today’s game I suppose):