Recapping Saturday:

• Stroud showed so much poise for a first playoff start, and Flacco’s INTs caught up to him in a big way. Houston’s offensive game plan was solid, but Cleveland’s defense was not. Bad combo for the Browns.

• Miami’s injured pass rushers hurt them, but not as much as Tua’s performance did. Even the touchdown to Tyreek was a bad pass. Kansas City still isn’t finishing drives, but it didn’t matter last night. Also, had to include this amazing shot:

• As for the Bills’ game being moved: it’s fine, they know their city better than I do. If they think it’ll be unsafe travel conditions and a playoff game could put undue stress on the emergency responders, then let’s do another doubleheader tomorrow.

• I won several bets on a Saturday! Bit of a breakthrough, almost hate to see them go.

on to today…

Green Bay at Dallas (-7 / 50.5)

4:30 ET, FOX, Fubo, NFL+

Market: Green Bay money came in and pushed this down to the flat 7 after a +7.5 opener. The total pushed up over 50 and tested 51 early in the week and found resistance there.

Injuries

Lots of guys ailing this time of year, but only a few are listed. Jaire Alexander did not practice on Thursday or Friday. He and Christian Watson are listed as questionable. A.J. Dillon is ruled out with his neck and thumb injuries.

Dallas on the other hand had good news on their star CB. Stephon Gilmore is off the injury report and good to go. Guard Tyler Smith and DT Jonathan Hankins are without gameday designations as well. Cooper Rush is listed as questionable after missing Friday’s practice with an illness. Hopefully the Cowboys don’t have a flu outbreak again.

…..

I think I made my feelings on the Green Bay defense quite clear over the second half of the season, taking multiple overs in games they played in. Despite the Bears’ terrible showing last week, I don’t think Joe Barry has turned some corner just in time for a magical playoff run here.

In the end, it’s one of the best offenses in the league, especially when playing a bad defense. The Cowboys lead the league in points per game (29.9) and are second in yards (40.2) and points (2.89) per drive. On the other side, a defense ranked in the bottom ten of damn near anything important, on the road. Sticking with my guns on this one and calling for the Boys to score at least 30, as they’ve done ten times already this season. Seven of those were at home.

Devils advocate: Green Bay has been decent in the Red Zone, defensively. The Cowboys are middle of the pack as far as converting Red Zone drives into TDs, but might just kill you by volume, as they lead the league with 4.2 appearances per game. Anyways, splitting up a bet on 1H/FG:

Dallas Cowboys 1st Half Team Total over 14.5 -117

Dallas Cowboys Team Total over 29 -112

Los Angeles at Detroit (-3 / 50.5)

8 pm ET, NBC/Peacock

Market: Sitting at -3 most of the week, the total was lower at some soft books to open, but the real opener was more like 52, which came down slightly before being pushed right back up overnight.

Injuries

James Houston, Jerry Jacobs, James Mitchell, and Kalif Raymond are out for the Lions. Houston has been missing since September, and while Jacobs and Mitchell do hurt the depth at some thinner positions, the Raymond injury may be impactful as he’s been their main punt return man this year. I would assume Donovan Peoples-Jones steps in here but, apparently Amon-Ra St. Brown or Maurice Alexander are in the mix as well.

Defensive lineman John Cominsky and tight end Sam LaPorta are questionable. I still wonder if LaPorta is more of a decoy/he won’t see the field much, but I’ve been wrong about injuries before.

Rams: OL Joe Noteboom, LB Troy Reeder, TE Tyler Higbee, OL Kevin Dotson, and DB Jordan Fuller are all listed as questionable. Fuller missed Friday’s practice but there’s still hope he plays. Higbee and Dotson are expected to play, and Noteboom is also likely to be available.

…..

This is a matchup we’ve been dreaming about for two months once it became apparent that the Lions had the North sewn up and the Rams were coming into form and likely to grab a wildcard. I’m not sure the narratives surrounding this will actually affect the game (how much more motivation do you need, it’s a playoff game?), but man it’s still a lot of fun.

The Rams are getting what feels like 100% of the love in the media, but this line is stuck on -3 and has been for a bit. The Lions’ defense being suspect is a big part of it, but this will be the third straight week on the road for the Rams. Underdogs are 44-104-0 (29.7%) straight up and 64-83-1 against the spread (43.5%) in this spot.

Some weird game factors to weigh in this one for sure. How much is McVay’s familiarity with Goff worth for the Rams’ defensive game plan? How big is the home-field advantage in a dome full of folks who’ve been playoff blue-balled for the better part of five presidencies? Just how blindly aggressive with Dan Campbell be when it comes down to it?

While I did bump up home field a bit and think the the Rams have the coaching advantage in this one, I still see this game as one with high variance and a wide range of outcomes. I took the Rams, no points, just straight up. If McVay cooks, the Lions’ secondary will be in hell and they can keep this thing rolling. If they don’t, I don’t see them staying within three points or back dooring it.

Los Angeles Moneyline +140

Catch ya tomorrow for more football, enjoy the day, and take the extra time you’ve been given with the Bills game moving to do something you’ve been putting off.