Super Wild Card Weekend Kicks Off

I have a ton of snow to shovel before the games start, so just some quick thoughts and final injury reports on the two games today. The playoffs are HERE!

Cleveland at Houston +2.5 / 44.5

The total has ticked up slightly to a 44.5 but the real story is on the side: Not a ton of respect for old man Flacco, as this 3 has seen enough Houston love to push down to as low as Cleveland -2 yesterday. I remember another time people doubted Joe.

Injuries

• Browns: ruled out kicker Dustin Hopkins, safety Grant Delpit, and WR Cedric Tillman. Hopkins was expected to miss as his hammy is still keeping him from kicking, Delpit was a bit of a long shot as he was just entering his practice window coming off the IR and Tillman was unable to be cleared with a concussion. Additionally, S Juan Thornhill, RB Pierre Strong, and CBs Mike Ford and Denzel Ward are all questionable. Ward was added to the report after hurting his knee in practice

• Texans: Jerry Hughes is out and most of the rest of the defensive line is questionable. Both Noah Brown and Robert Woods are listed as questionable, Woods practiced (but was limited) Wednesday and Thursday, Brown just Thursday. Will Anderson, Jonathan Greenard, Sheldon Rankins, and Maliek Collins are listed as Q on the defensive line. Fullback Andrew Beck (who caught a TD last week) is also on the injury report with a hurting calf.

I almost wish these two teams hadn’t played a month ago. It’s offering more confusion than insights as I dig in. The Browns had very little success on the ground despite Will Anderson, Jonathan Greenard, and Sheldon Rankins all being out on the defensive line. All three men are questionable heading into today but like the WR corps for Houston, people have continued to step up and make plays in the Texans’ push to take the AFC South.

On the other side of the ball, we have a similar fly in the ointment when looking back at the Browns’ 36-22 Christmas Eve win: Case Keenum started that game. He was replaced late in the 3rd by Davis Mills when it became apparent that he stunk and the game was lost. Fifteen of the 22 Houston points came with under 7 minutes to go in the game on back-to-back TD drives with a successful onside kick between them. We know the Browns defense is good, but that game certainly wasn’t a good representation of what we might see today.

The big story from the game was certainly Amari Cooper. The heel injury/resting players in week 18 kept him from an encore but lordy he blew this secondary up and will again be a deep threat that will likely force some safety help. If the defensive line injuries mean a pass rush that gives Flacco time and the Texans decide to attempt to take Cooper out of the picture we could see an uptick in usage for the other receivers.

This leads me to my bets for the day. Last week’s numbers get thrown out but looking back at the secondary receivers for this team and how the Texans’ secondary has played this year, I’ll take some shots at:

David Bell o2.5 receptions +135

Elijah Moore o3.5 receptions +124

David Njoku longest reception o20.5 yards -108

Small bets, because it’s Saturday and I’m cursed, but last time I bet on Njoku he had a fairly big day, and with Tillman out, I like these.

Miami @ Kansas City -5 / 43.5

(don’t forget this is on Peacock only!)

• Market: This total has been bouncing back and forth between 43 and 44 all week. Maybe a bit of the cold-weather narrative fighting with the fact that Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are magic. The side has been more one-way traffic toward the home team though. -3/3.5 has shot up to -4.5/5 with the Miami injuries looming over this one.

• Weather: Cold as balls

Injuries

• Miami: Both safeties, DeShone Elliot and Jevon Holland did not practice at all this week and are questionable. Mostert and Waddle are questionable after limited practices all week. Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey were limited in practices as well but are not carrying injury designations. CB Xavien Howard was ruled out earlier in the week.

• Kansas City: LT Wanya Morris has been ruled out, but the timing is funny since Donovan Smith is returning. Morris had been filling in for Smith since week 12. WRs Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross are both listed as questionable. Coach Reid has said that Toney would have a very small role tonight if any due to his injuries.

I get that it’s a Florida Team playing in the cold and they’re beat up, but honestly, I’m sort of out on both of these teams as we get into the playoffs.

Maybe Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes just turn it on again in the playoffs and I look dumb, but the main thing I see from the Chiefs that we haven’t seen in previous seasons is a team that I am concerned about if they fall behind. Kelce has looked his age as the season has gone on and no real WR1 has emerged from the mess that is the pass catcher depth chart. Additionally, a good (at times) defense does have a bit of a weak spot against the run.

Teams that are trailing need to get the ball back and score faster than usual. With a bad run defense and a lack of receiving weapons, I worry that an entire generation of bettors that have been rewarded by blindly mashing KC moneyline live are going to be shell-shocked at the end of the day. Maybe not this day, at home, but perhaps in Baltimore or Buffalo in the coming weeks.

We saw it at home versus a Vegas team that took the lead on defensive TDs and honestly even in the win versus Cincinnati two weeks ago. After falling behind in the 2nd quarter of those two games they had 14 combined drives, with only one ending up in the end zone (two if you count the Raiders housing their second defensive score I guess). The other 13 drives ended in six FGs, two turnovers, two punts, two turnovers on downs, and a missed kick.

No bet for me in this one, with my adjustment for injuries, I’m pretty much right on the numbers here, and with the uncertainty at the skill positions for Miami, I’m not sure I want to do much with this one. When we get inactive reports around 6:30 ET tonight maybe I’ll find something useful in the props market.