Super Bowl Props Philosophy

I’ve read, listened to, and seen some pretty awful content this week. I won’t name names because that’s not nice, and also, a few of them are folks I normally like.

Also, I don’t think it’s their fault! Normally, we have six days and a dozen games to talk about. Now we have two weeks and one game, and the demand for advertising spots and numbers is increasing, which is how we get people churning out fluff.

It had me thinking before we recorded last night about how I even wanted to approach the game and record a podcast that wouldn’t sound the exact same as 100 other ones. We did end up trying something different, and while I don’t think it was revolutionary or anything, I enjoyed the format and the discussions it led to.

I think the mark of a good gambling podcast is making you want to go place a bet when the credits roll, and I left last night with a plethora of ideas for some angles to attack the game. I convinced myself (not hard to do).

If you haven’t watched or listened yet:

We went through four different scenarios (KC/under, KC/over, PHI/over, PHI/under), discussed what sort of game state gets you that result, and started finding props that matched up well with what was likely to happen on both sides of the ball to get to that final result.

Our favorite outcome (because it matches what we bet):

Eagles and the Under

As someone who doesn’t do a TON of same game parlays, I was pretty disappointed that a lot of this stuff couldn’t be parlayed (I thought this was America) where I was trying to. I still think it’s a good way to fill up a portfolio if you are looking for some props and you already have a thesis on how the game might turn out. They may not pay out as big, but some alts on props are another way to cash in a little better price when you’re correct.

We went over in greater detail in the stream, but basically, The Eagles’ good run game is good against a KC run defense that has struggled but doesn’t end up getting the big explosive plays. Drives are long and drawn out, and the Sodfather isn’t here to mess up the turf, so the Eagles’ pass rush gets to Mahomes early and often.

Obviously, you can disagree with my take on how the game plays out, and that's fine, but it’s beside the point.

I want Sunday to be fun, and there are a ton of BIG prices on stupid shit this week. Most of them are sucker bets, severely mispriced, and often only offered as a one-way bet (a red flag).

You can bet 10/1 on Donna Kelce to show cleavage, or you can puzzle out a few legs of a good SGP for your version of the game script and have a sweat come Sunday night!

Last Night’s Live Stream

What About Next Week?

Well, there’s still football to talk about I suppose. I will be doing a Mock Draft Monday each week and then following up later in the week with early looks at next year’s betting odds, combine stuff, free agency news, and anything else to kill the time.

In the meantime, we also have a golf newsletter that comes out on Tuesdays that’s:

1. Free

2. Doesn’t cost anything

3. Can be subscribed to by clicking the link