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Super Bowl Prop Day
All the props I've fallen in love with plus some help from Noonan, Connor, & Drew
ICYMI: I went over my side and total yesterday
Super Bowl Props
Pacheco Leading Receiver +2500 (DK)
This is RECEPTIONS, not yardage. I found this at 30/1 earlier in the week but still don’t hate it at 25/1. This is a longer shot but has happened already this season when he hauled in seven for 35 in the win over Cincy. There were four players with more yardage, but no one had more than five catches.
Pacheco has had 9 games this year with at least 4 targets, and 7 games with at least 4 catches including that 7 catch day against the Bengals. Rice, Kelce, Aiyuk, and Deebo are eating up a ton of the equity at the top.
The 49ers defense is 26th in the league in RB catches per game and 28th in targets against. Additionally, even in a game state where they are leading, the Chiefs will still throw. Leading by 8 or more this year, they still only run 48.1% of the time, 25th in the league. Anddd of course, no defense is thrown on more than the 49ers, so here’s hoping the ball gets spread out a bunch and Pacheco finds 15 targets out of the backfield
Spoiler: Kelce Ruins this, so I played some Pacheco o3.5 receptions +124 as well
KC over 20.5 1st Downs -105
This is on par with their season average, but again, they were a team that was really losing a ton of EPA and opportunities via turnovers for a big part of the season. My thesis is a measured, “cross the street a dozen times” offense by the Chiefs. If they feature a lot of Pachecho as both a runner and an outlet as well as the usual Kelce over the middle stuff, I can see them getting closer to 25 1st downs.
San Francisco gives up just under 20 per game on average, which is middle of the pack. They also played a middle-of-the-pack schedule though, as far as hindsight strength of schedule.
Connor Allen’s Kicker Props
For some reason, CA is wrist-deep in the kicker stuff this year, but you know, whatever pays, pays:
Chiefs longest FG -105 at DK
To find this, go to D/ST props, then click FG-Props.
Harrison Butker is having the best year of his career, drilling 94% of his field goals including hitting 100% of his kicks from 40 yards and on. He is 8-of-8 from 40-49 yards and 6-of-6 from 50+ yards. On the other side, Jake Moody has been, fine but struggled a bit in the playoffs.
On the season Moody is hitting 84% of his kicks but has struggled especially from distance. He is just 5-of-9 on 40-49 yard kicks this year including two misses in the playoffs alone.
This is only -105 because it is listed as a 3-way market whereas Caesars and FD have this around -130 because they have it listed as a 2-way market where if no FG happens it voids
Niners first team to miss a FG -130 at FD and CZRS
This voids if neither team misses and as I mentioned above, Butker has been automatic while Moody has been a bit shaky this season ...especially in the postseason.
You can find this at FD under "Kicking/Punting" or on CZRS under "kicking props"
Ryan Noonan Gets Defensive
Ryan Noonan didn’t just give you a play or two on tackle props this year. He went through EVERY SINGLE PLAYER with a betting line on both teams, laid out his projections, what bets he would make, which he would avoid and some general tips about betting defensive tackle + assist props:
Follow Noonan on the Twitter
First TD Scorers
I’ll be tailing my guy Noops on that. I may be privy to the early peek at what he’s cooked up for this one, but I won’t spoil it, that’d be rude. Give him a follow, he’ll have a full portfolio of first TD scorers out sometime Saturday Afternoon by the looks of it.
1st TD Scorer bets will be released in full tomorrow afternoon.
— Noops Christenson (@_Noops)
Feb 10, 2024
All the Fun Ones
Gatorade - I’m leaning Kansas City. I CANNOT find the tweet, but there was something saying that equipment teams tend to use the colors that won’t stain the jerseys, so blue and purple for white tops and darker colors when they wear the colorful ones. This sorta checks out in the smallest of samples.
KC wore red four years ago when they beat the 49ers and poured orange Gatorade that day. KC wore white last year and poured the purple. They’ll be in the red tops tomorrow and I’ll play some ORANGE +350. No insider knowledge here, just can’t go through life and not play Gatorade props.
Final Score to Have Occurred as Past Super Bowl Final Score? Yes +410 - Just because I know this is an annoyance to me when people give out props: this is at FanDuel, under “SB LVIII Specials”. This is essentially “Reverse Scorigami”, but only for the other 57 Super Bowls. Confusing? A bit. I’m banking on a low-scoring game and to win this, the final score has to be the exact score of any previous Super Bowl. 21-17, 17-14, 24-21, 27-17, even 55-10. They all work. This is probably a bad call mathematically, but I enjoy having a few dumb ones.
Coin Toss - Please don’t. But if you have to for a prop game or just can’t fight the urge to bet it, here’s a terrible trend to help you feel like you made the right choice:
Ever since the NFL started using The Highland Mint (Melbourne, Fla.) for the Super Bowl coin toss, tails has dominated 18-12. That's a 60 percent cash rate.
— Larry Hartstein (@LarryHartstein)
Feb 8, 2024
Anthem - getting conflicting reports + it’s very hard to bet after a ton of places just took it down off the board anyway.
There are rumors that the Reba times are being mixed up with the Post Malone times, and some of the reported “leaked” rehearsal times are VERY close to where the market was anyway. Gone are the days of maxing the alt lines at 5Dimes and just starting your day up a bunch. I’m staying off this one, but will still be guessing that it’ll be quicker than most years, maybe 88ish.
MVP - I mean you probably need to decide who you think is winning this if you want to toss in a few MVP bets first. It’s hard to get past the QBs, first off, but there can sometimes be a bit of value in the Running Backs. Often though, it’s better to just go look at “what would they need to do to actually win the MVP?” and bet that SGP instead.
That said, I’m a sucker for Pacheco still and will take a bad price at 25/1 here.
As is tradition, Drew has put together the official Deep Dive Super Bowl Prop Sheet. There’s a link to a printable file in the tweet if you want to make a bunch and have a contest at your party. Tweet at either of us or @DeepDivePod afterward if you or someone at your get-together ended up doing exceptionally well (or poorly, that’s funny too).
🐳🏈 A tradition like many others, Super Bowl LVIII Prop Sheet will make your party more fun even if the Niners lose... pdf to download and print: drive.google.com/file/d/1_iLhzD…
— Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
Feb 8, 2024
Want More? I hopped on the Forward Progress Prop Extravaganza Wednesday and will be on the Unabated SuperStream tonight. Both shows are a massive list of prop bets from folks in the gambling space and are worth your time.