Super Bowl LIX

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Been saying it all week: I’m almost getting sick of talking about this game!

But, as we wake up and realize that today is the day that we’ll be timing the anthem on our phones and searching Twitter for photos or what color the Gatorade was, it makes the last two-week slog all worth it.

I’m not going to do some breakdown; we did an hour-long podcast on that earlier in the week, and I’m sure you can probably find an article or two out there if you really need to dig in this late in the cycle.

I’m just going to list the big props and which way I’d be going with things if you woke up realizing you didn’t have enough bets down on this game.

I’ll even start with the side and total in case you need a little push on those as well.

Eagles Moneyline

This is going to hurt when I get “Mahomes’d” but other than Reid, Butker, and the aforementioned QB, the Eagles are the better team in every other facet of the game. The biggest matchup that I’m leaning on is just how much worse the Chiefs’ run defense has been over the past couple of months. From week 10 onward (including the playoffs), they are 18th in Rush EPA/play. Go Birds.

Under 48.5

Building off the Eagles’ play, I do expect long drives for both teams, including the extending of drives by 4th downs and possibly some empty possessions when said 4th down attempts fail on the other side of the field against two pretty good red zone defenses. Rooting for Philly TDs and KC FGs.

Anthem time: Under

This is unlisted at a lot of places now, and as I’ve said a few times this week, read the rules. Some books that have had this up or still do are grading it by the first “word sung,” while others seem to imply that the beginning of the performance marks the start of the clock. With the high probability of some piano or other accompaniment possibly opening it up, I would likely bet the over (or pass) on books listing it that way.

Coin Toss

No lean on the coin toss for me this year.

But, if you wanted to bet it, I’d encourage you to do it with our friends at ProphetX.

ProphetX has even odds for Heads or Tails in this year’s Super Bowl Coin Toss.

ProphetX is a peer-to-peer exchange available in 40+ states. You will be able to make your picks against other groups of fans and guarantee yourself the best odds on average by 10-20%. They have 500+ props for tonight’s game.

MVP: Saquon Barkley

Might as well throw ALL my eggs into the same stupid Kelly Green basket. Drew talked me into this pretty strongly on the podcast this week, and I agree. It’s hard to find a scenario where the Eagles win, and Saquon has a bad game. A Jalen Hurts masterclass through the air is a possibility, but it seems much less likely than simply “the Eagles’ run scheme is good, the RB is great, and KC has struggled”

The best price I’ve seen this morning is +275

MVP Longshot: Hollywood Brown

Let’s say it all goes to shit on me. The game is high-scoring. The Eagles’ pass rush isn’t getting home. The Chiefs look better than the team that coulda/woulda/shoulda lost twice in the playoffs already. The MVP likely goes to Patrick Mahomes. But, just looking down the board at the pricing on KC players has me trying to map out ways that KC wins and Pat doesn’t win MVP.

I would think it would need to be a wild performance by one of the other offensive players, and seeing how unlikely that is from the running back room, it just leaves the pass catchers. I guess I’d be scheming to stop Worthy and Kelce and could see a couple of deep shots on Brown. He’d probably need two TDs, and one would have to be game-winning/amazing. We’d need a helmet catch or maybe even an OBJ.

All this is to say: this is a bad bet I’m putting a small amount on and most of the names past the first three are probably foolish. The best price I found this morning was 110/1

Gatorade: Lime/Green/Yellow

Yeah, this has gotten unbetable at a few places that are now listing it around -200 or more. But, if you look and know what you’re looking for, you can still find some small-limit books that have +125.

If you’re feeling squirrelly, purple is an option, seeing how that has been the color for the past two years. But there has been plenty of chatter that KC will be drinking yellow/lime this year and that both teams are essentially working with the same color of electrolyte sports drink. If you missed out, I don’t think laying -200 this morning is a great idea. There are plenty of other props.

Other Props

• Eagles under 165.5 yards of Gross Punting Yardage -160

• Total Field Goals Yardage (made) over 116.5 -115

• Eagles over 1.5 4th down conversions +100

• and my favorite one for the DDD Discord prop extravaganza: Under 13.5 players to record a reception -165 (courtesy of bdigital)

There are plenty more terrible long shots on the card, but this is a nice summation of the stuff I really like. Looking forward to going 0-10 on stuff I chose to put in here and 12-1 on things I left out. That’s how content works.

Have fun, enjoy the game, and we’ll see you tomorrow for the start of the DRAFT SEASON! Mock Draft Monday for the next few months. You can check out my last try at it if you’re trying to kill some time.

Having trouble finding certain props? You might live in a state that doesn’t allow it.