DeAndre Hopkins to the Pats?

Plus my plan to bet on all 32 teams before pre-season starts

Author

Andy Molitor
June 14, 2023

It’s still very much the offseason, but it’s still very much the NFL, and we all love it. So, I’ll be writing about and focusing in on the NFL twice a week as we rip through summer, but you can obviously expect a ton more content via the newsletter come fall.

We’ll have a handful of smart contributors talking through their NFL betting thoughts all week long, including some dedicated features on the ever-expanding menu of ways to wager on football. Prop bets, first TD scorers, teasers, and a look at ways to find an edge or two on Sundays.

Until we get there though, the twice-weekly summer schedule will spend considerable time on:

  • All of the Award Markets

  • Each Team’s Futures Prices and Regular Season Win Total

  • Season Long Player Props

  • Anything Else Where an Edge Might Exist

Obviously, if you find an interesting NFL market that you think might be worth a gander, just let me know.

You can always just reply to this email, I’ll get it.

Russini hit us with the news right off the bat this morning: despite what was described as a “good meeting” with the Titans, the Hopkins free-agency cycle would continue in New England.

Read More:

DeAndre Hopkins' Free Agency Tour Shifts to Foxborough

After wrapping up a two day visit to Nashville DeAndre Hopkins will be in Foxborough today and tomorrow to meet with the Patriots.

Analysis: Ian Rapoport said today that it may make sense for him to wait to sign, similar to Dalvin Cook. “waiting makes sense, you have no idea what is going to happen over the next month.”

Hopkins will obviously be signed somewhere, but in the interest of getting the best possible contract, why not wait for the possibility of a training camp injury or a team just realizing the WR room they have isn’t as good as they thought? I’d agree with Rap on this one

Betting: Odds have obviously shifted with the news. New England was 16/1 to land D-Hop just a few weeks ago. They were not really part of the conversation when the media began speculation on which teams could be in the mix after the 31-year-old receiver was released by the Cardinals.

This is a good example of a very reactive small-limit market that should not be viewed as predictive. It’ll likely just swing to whichever team he’s currently visiting as some bets roll in from folks who think they’re the only person with Twitter.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday Afternoon

To keep myself busy and help start setting my baseline expectations on teams before we get into the actual preview season on the Deep Dive (July), I’ll be doing some focused research projects on each team.

The Goal: to try to find the biggest source of uncertainty surrounding the team and how it could affect the range of outcomes for their season (and then find a way to bet it).

So, 32 articles hyper-focused on a big question mark surrounding a team and me trying to somehow twist it into a bet.

“Expert mode” caveat: I may try to create a (very unlikely, but technically feasible) situation where all 32 futures can win. It’ll make things tougher but will keep it interesting and stop me from betting on too many guys to win Rookie of the Year.

I didn’t know where to start, so I stuck all the teams in a randomizer and drew the Chicago Bears first.

Depending on how much golf I watch the next two days, maybe I’ll have two done by Friday, so keep an eye out for my first couple of off-season wagers for the 2023 NFL season.

WR Drama

To get a really good idea of where we are in the NFL calendar cycle. A WR missed the first day of minicamp and it devolved into “here we go again” immediately. Social media helps to create extra drama but, this one has been a little weird.

Trades were discussed, the Bills were given a proper burial, and Vikings fans gloated for some reason.

Later on, of course, Diggs posted to Instagram a couple of times…

Diggs, of course, showed up on Wednesday and everyone has moved on with their lives, right? I thought it was all probably just a big nothing-burger, but the McDermott quote about being concerned and the IG post obviously stuck with me.

McDermott addressing the media and saying that the absence was excused did not do anything to clear up the confusion.

…and finally, the coup de grâce: Mini-Camp was cut a day short. Maybe unrelated, maybe VERY related, or maybe the guys just wanted to watch the U.S. Open.

What’s that all add up to? I have no idea, I was never good at CLUE. Conflicting messages and a ton of drama, but that kind of comes with the territory when you have a good wide receiver.

I wouldn’t go betting Buffalo to miss the playoffs just quite yet.

Mini-Camp Notes