Giants vs 49ers, Best Bets for TNF

Market

Lookahead line last week was 49ers -9.5 and this opened most places -10. A little bit of back-and-forth action keeps it from moving up past -10.5 for the most part but with all the Giants’ injuries, this one seems to be sticking with 10.5 across the board now.

Under money since Monday with the 45.5/46 openers getting beat down all week to the current 43.5 (right where last week’s look ahead price was on Wednesday).

All week 3 betting odds

Matchup

The Giants offense finally showed up after six quarters of sadness but is now dealing with a ton of injuries. Saquon Barkley will be out after an ankle injury. The left side of the O-Line was also ruled out yesterday with LT Andrew Thomas and G Ben Bredeson sitting tonight. On the other side of the ball edge rusher Azeez Ojulari is also out. Linebacker Micah McFadden is questionable.

Wan’Dale Robinson is expected to play though! The WR will see his first action since tearing his ACL early last year.

For the 49ers the main concern will be whether Brandon Aiyuk goes. The WR is listed as questionable and we likely won’t find out until the lead-up to game time tonight. CB Ambry Thomas is also questionable but is expected to play.

Both teams struggled to keep the opposing offenses from moving in the 1st half last week. The main difference is one was led by a revitalized Matthew Stafford (who seems to be moving much better so far this year) and the other was facing Josh Dobbs in his 4th career start.

While the 49ers playing back a little in the 1st half (remember they are under a new defensive coordinator this year again) played some part, the Rams’ offense has looked a lot more lively and efficient than we gave them a chance to be after losing Cooper Kupp. They got it done in the end, on the road, despite not covering the number for reasons unknown.

Even if we see the “best version” of the 2023 Giants offense that showed up after halftime last week against a tough defense, it’s the other matchup that has me worried about a blowout in this one.

This will be the 2nd best offense in the league so far (as measured by EPA/play and Success Rate) against a defense that has neither registered a sack nor taken the ball away from the opposing offense yet. Down the stretch and into the postseason last year, the Giants’ defense made some strides and was above average in nearly any metric you want to use. This year they are currently second to last in defensive EPA/play (there is a hilariously large gap between them and the Bears at 32 though). I can cut them some slack for the Cowboys game, but to get diced up by the Cards for 30 minutes was very suboptimal to any hope of a return to the postseason.

If the Giants’ defense doesn’t show up tonight, I’m not sure the beat-up offense can keep them within two scores of Deebo, CMC, Kittle, Aiyuk, etc.

Betting

CMC anytime TD is -270 tonight on FanDuel, guessing we’ll see that one in a million SGPs.

I tried to find some way to get involved with Matt Breida since the 49ers have been a touch susceptible on the ground this year, but his usage may really change if the game state flips like it has the past two weeks. Darius Slayton o2.5 receptions checks out for me, but who wants me to give you a -150 prop?

The 5ish targets that Saquon usually gets have to go somewhere though, and I don’t think Breida gets them all. Slayton is probably the only offensive weapon I trust outside of Waller and he’s gotten 11 targets already through two games. Hoping for a 49ers beatdown that leads to Daniel Jones throwing 40 times.

The top four players on the odds board are 49ers. So, maybe some value on Giants players in this market, but it’s still tough to push submit on a New York player.

Slayton, Campbell, and Waller are all running routes on roughly 70% of dropbacks but Isaiah Hodgins is the only receiver with an end zone target (2) this year. The Giants had one of the heaviest run/pass splits in the red zone last year, but that wasn’t always a running back doing the work.

For the 49ers, Aiyuk and Kittle saw plenty of red zone action last year (CMC is the leader in that clubhouse though despite not being on the team for the first 7 weeks). Deebo gets lots of looks as well but is priced as such. With Aiuyk uncertain and McCaffrey’s price being ridiculous, I’ll take their other two big weapons at prices I hate and deal with the consequences later. Also more Slayton and a bit of Daniel Jones to keep running as much as we’ve seen this season thus far.

Deebo Samuel +750 (CZR)

George Kittle +1000 (FD)

Daniel Jones +1700 (DK)

Darius Slayton +2800 (DK)

Will Damar Hamlin be active for a game this year?

Will he see any action if he is?

Will voters care as long as he’s on the roster all year?

What the hell is the criteria for comeback player of the year anyway?

I don’t have these answers, man.

Wikipedia says that this award is given to “the player who has shown perseverance in overcoming adversity, in the form of not being in the NFL the previous year, a severe injury, or simply poor performance.”

The rest is up in the air. Geno won last year, simply by coming back from… being a backup? I still don’t quite understand the win, especially given the 2nd half of the season, but I don’t have a vote.

This is as unique a market as we’ve seen in a while with Damar, and previous to Geno, for the most part, this was usually given to a QB who missed time and then played well the following year.

Previous five winners:

2021- Joe Burrow - ACL previous year

2020- Alex Smith - Leg destroyed, 17 surgeries, gross scar

2019 - Ryan Tannehill - missed games with shoulder injury

2018 - Andrew Luck - Lost the season to a shoulder injury

2017 - Keenan Allen - ACL first game of ‘16

Current Odds

I don’t really want to bet on this market at all. It feels like bad karma for my other bets to fade Damar, but there are a few guys who definitely meet the right criteria if the fickle media decides they’ve forgotten about him by January.

Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and Matthew Stafford all missed time for their teams last year and look good so far. I can see the case for T.J. Watt after missing a ton of time last year. Maybe this is a nice consolation prize from voters who decide to rank him second on the DPOY card this year? It’s been a while since a defensive player won this (2015 when Eric Berry came back with a strong season after missing time due to a cancer diagnosis.)

If you have a hot take on a long shot who can win this or what the Bills’ plan is with Damar, BY ALL MEANS let me know on the Twitter.

Good luck with your wagers tonight, and here’s to a Darius Slayton screen pass to the house to start things out.