Betting on the Bears, Bengals vs Chiefs & the long wait for Training Camp

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It still feels like we’re a long way from football but, we’re currently sitting just 45 days out from the Hall of Fame game. Should be a fun showcase of franchises that have been horrible for a bit and are now hopefully going to be really good.

So, as I laid out last week, I’ll be spinning through each team, seeing how my preconceived notions still hold water after a little bit of research, and finding a future bet to fire for each squad. Spun the randomizer, landed on the Bears, and will keep doing that unless I hear from someone with a convincing case on why I should do their team next (you can reply to this e-mail, I’ll get it).

Since the age of journalism is in the rear-view, I’ve determined that nowadays, there are two ways to write a team preview/year-in-review article. They both have the same end goal: lots of clicks and engagement:

1. The Pessimist’s Version. Nitpick everything, spin positives into negatives, and make up a few things if you have to. The whole point is for the fanbase to react and engage, you don’t care if it’s 1000 angry Twitter replies, look at those numbers!

2. The Optimist’s Version. Pander your ass off, spin negatives into positives, and make up a few things if you have to. Hope springs eternal when everyone is 0-0-0, this is the easiest time of the year to get the fan base excited for “our year.” Added bonus of the pessimists among the readers to chime in, look at those numbers!

I think it’s a fun little thought exercise to do both, especially for a team like the Bears who wound up in a weird spot as a team that was better than their record at times, but also really benefitted from their losses. Hell, the Sun-Times even called it the “Sweet Spot of Bad.”

Optimists Version:

• We got to see Fields develop as an elite runner

• Totally tanked on purpose and got the #1 pick

• Enough cap space to fix all kinds of problems

• Able to trade the top pick for #1 WR and still get help on the O-Line!

• Rodgers is in the AFC, the Lions drafted like they were drunk and the Vikings are frauds!

Pessimist Version:

• Fields could only really complete passes in the mid-range against soft zone

• There’s limited upside to his running, plus he’s just going to get hurt. Look what happened to Lamar!

• The Claypool trade makes the Rickie Williams trade look like a stroke of genius

• Outside of a Right Tackle, most of the draft capital was spent on defense, Fields is still going to be surrounded by trash?

• Free Agency “splashes” were linebackers?!?

• D.J. Moore only had 63 catches in 17 games last year…

• Poles is lost, welcome to Pace 2.0

Analysis:

I did see some flashes of excellence from Justin Fields last year, mostly on the ground, but he made a lot of nice intermediate passes with a pretty rough group of WRs. The short stuff needs improvement, he has some capable weapons out of the backfield if he can work on the touch. He’ll also need to be more comfortable throwing into tighter spaces. Having a true WR #1 and building on a nice rapport with Kmet should see him playing with a little more confidence as a passer. Plus, he spent some time with Mike Vick last week.

The offensive line is being described as “rebuilt” which is sort of true, but it’s still very young and inexperienced. Braxton Jones improved as the year went on as far as I can tell, I like the experience at center (even if the veteran Whitehair technically hasn’t played center all that much) and the early draft investment in an absolute unit in Darnell Wright should pay dividends. Maybe Paris Johnson turns out to be better, but there’s a decent chance the Bears were able to acquire the best O-lineman in the draft while still getting a WR.

As for the defense: It was very bad last year. It should improve just based on the additions through free agency and the draft as well as just getting another year for the defensive-minded head coach’s system to take hold. The pass rush doesn’t appear to be fixed by any means, but the new additions will help improve the run-stop after a truly dismal season versus the ground attack. The ceiling is probably middle of the pack, but still, that’d be a pretty nice jump from last year.

The biggest plus for the defense though? Playing a handful of inexperienced QBs this season. They’ll get Jordan Love twice, Sam Howell, Bryce Young, Desmond Ridder plus whatever the Raiders and Buccs decide to roll out and Kyler coming off a major knee injury. I’m well aware of the tough spots in the schedule, but I do love to see some very winnable games throughout the year.

What I’m betting

First off, what I’m NOT betting is Justin Fields to win MVP at 20/1. It’s always wild to see what some of these early markets do each year. I get the hype, just not sure his ceiling is “suddenly better than Mahomes, Burrow, etc.”

Looking at the expectations and how they will be regarded in the media after last year, I think a nice look at a longer price is for Eberflus to win coach of the year.

There are several ways to win Coach of the Year in my opinion:

1. Eye-popping success in the form of the W-L record (Harbaugh 14-2 in 2019)

2. “The Last Guy Sucked” turnaround (Daboll last year after the string of bad NYG coaches)

3. In the absence of the first two: actually give it a good coach who’s been impressive for years (Vrabel in 2021)

Obviously, narrative #2 for Eberflus fits to a tee AND he’s essentially set the table for himself by masterfully dropping almost every close game and only notching the three wins. The NFC is weak as hell right now and the Bears to make the playoffs is +172 at Fanduel right now.

Since we’ve added the #7 seed, five of the six teams to claim it have had nine or fewer wins. The Bears are currently sitting with a regular win season total of 7.5 with a slight shading to the over. Overperforming this by a couple of games honestly might even win the NFC North (+420 to do so), but getting in as one of the wildcards might be enough given the circumstances.

So, as much as this season’s success will ride on the arms (and legs) or Justin Fields, after the mess that was the Matt Nagy/Ryan Pace era, Matt Eberflus is kind of set up to be a much-talked-about and publicized story, if this offense can manage a fair amount of wins with a 4th place schedule. If he’s worth his salt, he should be able to produce a middle-of-the-pack defense. Combine that with the fact that you’ve got part of the team that ran the offense responsible for Rodgers’ back-to-back MVPs in Luke Getsy and suddenly we’re looking at the possibility of a fun team that can win nine or ten games, be widely celebrated, and get destroyed by the first decent team they face in the playoffs (again, following the Daboll blueprint.)

I did the shopping, and think I found the best current price. Lots of places sitting on an 11/1, but it appears I can do a little better for the first entry in the futures portfolio.

Matt Eberflus - Coach of the Year +1300 (Caesars)

31 teams left, should have two more this Thursday.

I’d be more than happy to have another great rivalry that’s not strictly based on playing each other 100 times over the past century even if the teams aren’t always good (Bears/Packers). It’s probably been since the Brady/Manning matchups of the early part of the 2000s since we’ve had a true grudge match to look forward to every winter.

So, I’m all about the Bengals-Chiefs having a decade-long battle for the top dog in the AFC. Technically the Bengals should have the edge, being 3-1 straight up over the past two seasons, but I’ll actually be calling it 1-1 based on wins in the playoffs. After last week, likely giving KC the edge due to superior off-season trash talk.

I do indeed respect Jamar Chase for stanning his QB and throwing a little nastiness KC’s way. But answering “Pat Who?” was probably just playing with fire.

So of course, it turned out to be just absolutely piss poor timing. Pat had a pretty tailor-made response gift wrapped for him with the Super Bowl ring ceremony taking place.

Advantage KC, at least until 4:25 EST on New Year’s Eve 👀

• Bijan Robinson will likely still be part of a committee

• The Supplemental Draft is BACK! Here’s what that means

• Russell Wilson is months ahead of schedule for cringe content

• Last ride for Kirk Cousins?

• Allen Robinson fitting in so far in Pittsburgh

Lastly, if you’re still fiending for more NFL, the guys over at 4for4 went over a bunch of early bets they are looking to place right now.

Want to help out? It’s a free newsletter, so your money’s no good here, but there are a couple of things you can do if you’re feeling up to it. Things that help me: Click a link, send me a reply, or best of all, share this with someone who likes football (you have to know someone).