🍻Friday Free Bet: Free Prop Bet for Bengals/Browns

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I’ll assume you watched last night so keeping it brief: I won’t be giving either team too much of an adjustment in my power ratings based on the results. Kansas City stays pat for me, I’ll be assuming Kelce is back next week until I hear otherwise. They’ll survive.

The Lions get a slight bump up from me after seeing all four top rookies making an impact (Branch was “right place right time”, but still a score’s a score). Gibbs looked like a great compliment to Montgomery in the backfield. LaPorta was great all-around with some good blocking to go with his catches. And like Gibbs, Jack Campbell made good use of the time he had on the field, getting a couple of tackles and a pass breakup in his 25 defensive snaps. If the young players continue to contribute, this team will keep getting better, maybe we’ll even see Jameson Williams eventually.

If you wanna read about how bad Toney and Moore sucked, just head to Twitter, there's plenty of that discourse over there.

And yeah, I got greedy with MVS (who hit his standard yardage prop in the 1st half before getting goose egged in the 2H), but there was some money made last night at halftime!

Drew wasn’t as keen on the under (I played it anyways) as the Lions and finally convinced me to make Lions 2H Moneyline +100 the play. Congrats if you watched and tailed I suppose, we bet the halftime line of every primetime game all year, you can find the streams on our YouTube.

Looking ahead to the weekend, I still have a few decisions to make on the last few plays on the card. On our Wednesday night live stream, (also available in a podcast form so you can listen at 2x) I went over two sides, a total, a team total, and about 5 teaser legs I like for the weekend. There are still a couple of games that I was waiting on injury news for and barring some Saturday announcements, we’ve learned about all we can until roster announcements on Sunday.

• Packers’ WR news was a mixed bag with Watson missing any real practice and Doubs likely not 100%. Bakhtiari looks like he’s playing.

• There was a little concern over Rhamondre Stevenson missing practice today, but reports are now coming in that it was just a stomach bug and he’s expected to play Sunday.

• Bryce Young’s weapons are looking a little dicy with D.J. Chark ruled out with weekend and Adam Theilen missing time earlier in the week

• Scary Terry is good to go for the Commanders

• Darren Waller got a LATE designation for the Giants. His hammy is acting up and he’ll be questionable.

• The Saints had less than great news on the injury front today, Kendre Miller missing would have them really thin in the backfield.

Still Monitoring as I cruise through the rest of my Friday: Kenneth Walker, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, OBJ, Marquise Brown, Jerry Jeudy, Chase Young, Terron Armstead, & Jaylen Waddle.

Connor Allen was kind enough to hit me with one of his favorite props for this opening Sunday. All of his bets every week are over in the 4for4 Discord (DM me if you want a promo code and I’ll decide what percentage off I have that day depending on how nicely you ask.)

Joe Mixon under 21.5 receiving yards

After heavy usage in the receiving game during the regular season, Mixon’s pass-catching role dissipated in the playoffs. He played just 15.6% of third-down snaps, while Perine played 82.2%. His routes per game also fell to just 10 per game, while Perine ran 21.3. During that stretch, he went under 21.5 receiving yards in every game despite Joe Burrow throwing the ball 32, 36, and 41 times.

Even with Samaje Perine gone, the Bengals have a plan in place with Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams mixing in on third downs. Zac Taylor has made it pretty clear Mixon won't have the third-down role this season with multiple beat writers saying that Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams be splitting that role. On top of that, those with boots on the ground have reiterated he will "absolutely not be a third-down back" because they don't trust him in pass-pro. Without third-down work, as we saw in the playoffs, consistently getting over 21.5 receiving yards is a tough ask.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Check out all of Connor’s weekend action over at 4for4 Football.

I’ve discussed this a few times over the offseason with a few folks, including 4for4’s Ryan Noonan, who spends a lot of time looking into defensive stats, snaps, and usage rates. He had some good advice regarding the type of player that can win both of these awards and since it’s Friday afternoon, I’m just going to touch on a couple of guys I bet on for each award.

Defensive Player of the Year

Micah Parsons +450 - he’s the favorite and that’s not sexy, but often this award just goes to one of the top players that’s already been producing at a high level for a year or two and finds himself with short odds. Similar to Bosa and Watt the past two years, if he is a big part of another good defense the voters may be asking “Why hasn’t this guy won this award yet?” (he was runner up both years)

Quinnen Williams +3000 - This is one of the only longer odds I can make a good case for. With the emergence of strong interior defensive linemen as a force again, he can make a case this year for being the best not named Aaron Donald. Having some help on the outside will hopefully see him wreaking more havoc on the inside as the Jet’s defense continues to ascend.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Last year was a cornerback and maybe we need to rethink that position a bit as more and more rookies are contributing right off the bat, but for the most part, this puzzle is VERY similar to offensive Rookie of the Year: who’s getting snaps and who’s getting stats. I opted to avoid some of the top of the board due to some of the teams maybe just not having a good defense (Texans) or the players not getting enough time on the field at a packed position group (Carter, Gonzalez). Instead, I took two edge rushers who I think can play themselves into more snaps as they go and pick up the 8 to 10 sacks that get you in the conversation.

Lukas Van Ness + 2000 - I liked some of the quotes coming out of Green Bay this week. DC Joe Barry has said he knows things haven’t been great and that he understands that changes need to happen. The group of edge rushers in front of him aren’t the type of player that he can’t replace if things aren’t going well, and for a coordinator on the hot seat, that might happen faster than normal. Winning this as a rotational piece is possible, but I’d (obviously) love to see him gain snaps as the weeks go on.

Will McDonald +2500 - For some of the same reasons I like Quinnen Williams, I’m looking at this young Jet. It’ll be a good defense and with the need at edge, I can see him getting plenty of opportunities this year. Not sure if being a Jet hurts him considering Sauce’s win last year, but at a bigger price like this I’m willing to risk it.

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