I'm worried about the Raiders

Twice-weekly NFL betting news and content all summer long. Afternoon reading while we wait for kickoff.

I think most of us went into this with fairly low expectations considering that a good chunk of it was going to center around Kirk Cousins’ off-the-field life.

There HAVE been some strong takes, both ways so far. None stronger than my guy Daigle essentially saying it’s worse than The Idol (in a quote tweet where Rap says he likes it).

My Review (after only watching one episode):

Well, Ken Burns it ain’t.

My takeaway is that since it’s the NFL maybe they thought they could just coast instead of putting in the effort that made Drive to Survive and Full Swing good. Even though I wasn’t blown away by the first episode, I’ll still absolutely be finishing this entire thing over the next week, for two reasons.

One: there are some hilarious and outright dumbfounding wins coming up for the Vikings (Colts, Giants, Bills, etc.) While no longer a fan, these did bring great joy to some and I’m looking forward to reliving them.

Two: For some reason, I enjoy watching something with the knowledge that there is no happy ending for the characters. Cousins flounders in the playoffs again, Mariotta is eventually benched, and Mahomes spends the entire year dealing with Brittney and Jackson.

6.6/10 on the football docuseries scale. (1 being “American Underdog” and 10 being anything the NFL Films made in the 80s)

Truthfully, I’m much more excited about the upcoming Jon Bois project. Anyone who’s watched any of his previous work (check out the Scorigami video or “The search for the saddest punt in the world”), gets it. Not being released until August, but the trailer should give you a bit of an idea of what we’re in for.

We took a look at the AFC West this week on the podcast, and as my thoughts continue to solidify on these teams, I’ll start firing more futures bets to add to the portfolio.

The short version is that everyone else in the division either fixed a huge coaching spot or just “is Kansas City” while the Raiders made a lateral move at QB and didn’t really address a host of issues on the defensive side of the ball. EPA metrics have their 2022 defense in the bottom five, especially as a passing defense. Duke Shelley and a rookie edge rusher likely don’t fix that enough for a schedule that includes Mahomes and Herbert (twice) along with Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the possibility of Russell Wilson becoming a good QB again.

To come into the season with maybe the best running back, a top-five wide receiver, and a win total of 6.5 (lowest in the division) says a ton about the obvious and constant importance of a quarterback and a head coach and play caller you can trust.

I’m really worried about the Jimmy G signing without even bringing up his injury history. He does a ton of stuff better than the average QB, but it’s very hard to look at him as a quarterback rather than just part of a great system. Sure, you can spin the signing as an upgrade if you’d like, Jimmy has a lot of good metrics that come with playing for a good team. One team site went with this gem:

A bit of an oversimplification of a team that’s had a top-10 defense more often than not, a scheme built around a cavalcade of freaks at skill positions, and has seen coach after coach be hired away by the competition looking to replicate the success SF has had despite fighting through injuries year after year (Salah, Ryans, McDaniel). Signing McCaffrey obviously gave Purdy a boost, but are we sure that someone drafted in the 7th round should be able to step in and essentially replicate his predecessor’s results even with that extra piece?

It seems the only questions we need to answer for the 2022 Raiders are: Is Garappolo good independent of Shanny and is Josh McDaniels capable of leading a team and still putting together a good offense?

When I can’t answer a question, I defer to an expert on the manner and I’ll go ahead and consider Kyle Shannahan in this case. Some of it was certainly contract and age, but it’s now been several years of trying to jettison Jimmy G, so maybe we have our answer. The McDaniels-Garoppolo connection from New England is certainly interesting, but those things often get overblown.

The Schedule

AFC West schedules are going to be tough just based on the fact that you play KC twice, but getting the crossover into the AFC East this year with basically the entire division either already very good or trending up isn’t helpful. Toss in another handful of games versus offensive play callers that will have an advantage over your defense (GB, MIN, DET, NYG) and I’m not sure I see a way that we aren’t looking at a top-5 toughest schedule when the dust settles.

Here are the MVP odds with some crudely drawn-on check marks for which ones the Raiders get this year. I guess at least they avoided Cincy again

So, a defense likely stuck in the bottom third of the league, a running back due for regression, an oft-injured QB in a new home, and a lot of questions in the receiving corps after a top-end stud.

This is a “when it rains, it pours” kind of team. If things go badly, they could go very badly against this schedule.

Sorry if you’re a Raiders fan, I’m rooting for a turnaround eventually and I’m a big Maxx Crosby fan… but how good would Caleb Williams look in the black and silver?

If you want a full hour of us going through last year’s weird results, the offseason grade, and what we think of the betting markets for LV, we’ve got you covered:

Commanders Sale

Apparently, there is a snag in the best NFL news we’ve had all offseason. A few reports of this being just blustering by Daniel Snyder, but there are also accounts of his latest shenanigans being something that could halt the pending sale of the team ahead of next week’s owner’s meetings. I went through the hoops of getting a free WaPo membership to grab this screenshot:

Read into it a bit and I’m less worried than I was after the clickbait headlines, which is often the case. JP here puts it into perspective a bit:

Still in slow news season, the biggest thing on the internet today seems to still be that Messi went grocery shopping but, still a few things worth catching up on in the NFL.

• Saquon is now talking about sitting out to start the season

• Philip Rivers may have retired from football, but he’s still not done producing

• Quinnen Williams got paid

• The Damar Hamilton clip is probably the only part of the ESPYs worth watching

• A-Rodg says there is one part of being on Hard Knocks he’s looking forward to

Still want something else to read? Ryan Noonan took a quick look at the pitiful NFC South and found FOUR bets he likes for the season. Free to read article over at 4for4.com.

Finally, don’t forget about getting your spot in our big survivor pool for the season. The Raiders might just suck but Las Vegas is still fun and a Super Bowl trip on us doesn’t sound too bad.

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