Cliff Notes:

• He was expensive considering the production, and the Vikings need the cap space to spend elsewhere (maybe a star pass rusher who’s currently not attending OTAs because he wants a new contract)

• That’s it

The good Doctor Eager tweeted out a nice chart showing where he has stacked up relative to the other Running Backs in the league each year in EPA/Rush Over Average. It’s tough sometimes to let go of a “brand name” player but the nerd smart crowd is very much in agreement that it was the right thing to do considering the price tag and how Mattision, Chandler, and McBride should be able to fill in.

Maybe I’ll bump the Vikings up the list of teams to write about considering their interesting situation, but as I mentioned this move more than likely impacts them in a positive way. Allowing them to spend the newly opened cap space on defenders for new defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ (hopefully) aggressive schemes.

As far as the fantasy/best ball implications of the rest of the backfield goes: Twitter seems pretty divided on Mattison and the two rookies. Obviously someone is getting a bunch of touches as the Vikings now have the 3rd most available carries and touches, per John Daigle.

In an effort to try to stay ahead of the curve when evaluating and comparing teams something I’ve often struggled with is properly evaluating and incorporating coaches and play callers into my team ratings and when creating my fair prices for matchups as the season goes on.

4for4’s resident data scientist Sam Hoppen just recently put together a whole bunch of spider-charts detailing the play-calling tendencies of dozens of coaches

Obviously not going to post all of the five dozen graphics he made here but there are definitely some interesting ones that caught my eye. Like all good data, it raises even more questions. I’m specifically thinking a lot about how much is coaching tendency and how much is “this is what I can do with this roster.” Some of the guys who have changed teams in the past handful of years are very intriuging.

Here’s a few I liked and relabeled for him

“Raheem Morris vs Raheem Morris with an Aaron Donald”

Bad line, Bad WRs, Young QB that needs to survive the year”

“pre- and post-working under McVay”

Like I said, Sam made one for every play caller on both sides of the ball who qualified, and they’re worth checking out.

Follow Sam on Twitter to see them all and check out his work at 4for4

Andy and Drew have been all over the place these past few months post-draft, but things are starting to get a little more NFL-centric for the guys. Last week the prep for the 2023 season started by looking at how using the early lines put out by the sportsbooks can be used to set yourself up with a nice baseline of team ratings to work from for the year.

Articles will be coming, lots of them, but for now….

I like to put out a knee-jerk, no-look reaction before digging in on awards markets and then see what I can do to disprove myself by looking into alternate paths for certain players to win.

This year’s first draft: “It’s Bijan or one of the three QBs”

Obviously, that’s no fun, considering the odds but a few things continue to stick out for this award

1. It’s NOT as bad as the MVP, but it sure does help to be a QB

2. The opportunity to play and succeed at least with individual stats has to exist or find a way to exist down the road

3. The media cycle and hype around a player almost matter as much as the on-field product

4. You’ll likely never have a previous year to compare the current year to

The final point is a big one when trying to project who has a shot. Each year is a very different beast with wildly unique situations and as much as much as I hate to use the phrase “actively managing”, that’s always the plan.

Current pricing is keeping me from making any bets, but as soon as I hit send on this email I’ll be digging into the rest of the WR and RBs (TEs can’t win) as well as the leftover QBs to see if anyone has a chip, chair and a chance as a long shot. Look for a full article next week.

If you DO want a few bets to consider, my defensive-minded pal Ryan Noonan wrote up his initial takes on the DROY, including three wagers he’s placed so far, including a couple of longer shots over 30/1 ⤵️

Lots, but I’m very open to suggestions since you’re reading this and not me. Feel free to reply to this email if there’s any betting market, topic, or anything else you want explored, written about, and spoon-fed to you via e-mail and we’ll jump on it.

Like I said, it’s June.