The Jordan Love Era is Underway

Before we dig on the Packers trying to extend their 30-year streak of not worrying about the QB…

Thursday Night Recap:

• Texans: Very small sample on C.J. Stroud, let’s calm down and give him some time (yes, he looked very bad, but the O-Line wasn’t helping). Tank Dell was as advertised, and Will Anderson was fine.

• Patriots: Bailey Zappe played a lot for New England, leading to speculation of extra evaluation and possibly a QB controversy??? O-Line injuries and depth problems already rearing their head a bit. Pass rush looked good to great at times.

• Vikings: Ty Chandler impressed and has a good shot to be the RB2 being Mattison. Secondary is going to have a long year, Flores has his work cut out for him. Kirk Cousins did very little to dispel rumors that he’s a huge bleeping dork.

• Seattle: Drew Lock played a ton, not sure why outside of just not having much behind him. I wanted more JSN and Charbonnet, guessing they’ll play in all three preseason games and I’ll get my chance.

Bets went 1-1 with a snoozer on the NE-HOU under 38.5 and a heartbreaker with SEA-MIN 1st half over 17.5 (congrats to those who just nutted up and paid -125 to get over 16.5 at DraftKings).

Damn near 2000 words on two Thursday night games was fun and all, but I’m going to have to tighten it up a bit. There are 14 more games between today and Sunday and I’m leaving for vacation this afternoon. Simply going to have to stick to the important stuff for the rest of the week.

Just going to focus in on one of the more exciting Friday Matchups today. While we’re blessed with SIX games Friday evening, I’ll key in on the two TV games as we’ll have another NFL Network double header tonight. Starting with…

What to Expect

Cincy

The biggest quote about tonight’s game from Bengals head coach Zac Taylor was actually about the rest of the preseason. He said that it’s possible we’ll see most of the starters get reps in the final two preseason games, meaning today may be just an eval game with top-skill position players on both sides of the ball sitting out tonight.

Quarterbacks: Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning have been splitting the first-team reps and I’m not sure it matters which one starts and for how long each plays. I’d guess it’s a split, but without really any other starters, it seems like the assignment for each will just to be avoiding mistakes as there is apparently a legitimate QB competition for the #2 role.

Others to Watch: We saw what OL injuries did to this team in the playoffs so any sign of life at the depth spots would be a great sign for the long haul. Some young names across the defensive line should get some time and will be making their cases for regular-season snaps. Obviously excited to see top pick Miles Murphy, especially on pass rushing downs, but there are a few other second and third-year players like Zach Carter that could make an impact this year.

Rookie WRs Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas will be something to keep an eye on, but with the top three receivers being very much locked in, they’ll likely be fighting it out to find a spot as depth/special teams. Chase Brown will be vying to be Mixon’s backup in a weak RB room.

Green Bay

Head Coach Matt LaFleur has said that Jordan Love, as well as the young receiving corps, will likely see plenty of playing time this preseason. This makes a ton of sense, but it appears that a lot of that will be in the upcoming weeks with reports being that Love will likely only play a few series tonight.

Quarterback: Jordan Love as mentioned for a bit followed by Sean Clifford and Alex McGough. It’s great to have the backups right, but the sole focus this August has to be getting Love comfortable in the starting role and on the same page with his barely-old-enough-to-drink group of receivers.

A quick aside, there are some QBs that will get time this preseason and never be heard of again. The bottom of Green Bay’s depth chart features an MVP though. If you caught any USFL this spring, you already know.

No idea who he’ll be throwing to or protected by, but I’m sort of in on the idea of live betting the Packers late if he’s looking lively vs. the Bengals’ backups’ backups.

Rookie Watch

We will likely get a decent dose of second-year guys Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. After that, it’s an absolute feast of fun, young receivers. I’ve already proclaimed Luke Musgrave to be Kelce 2.0 with another rookie in TE Tucker Kraft right behind him. Jayden Reed has made some waves at camp and all of these names as well as Dontayvion Wicks will be in the mix to be catching balls with the starters this season.

Betting

Broncos

Sean Payton’s quotes certainly make it sound like they’ll be taking this one seriously, and between that and any film from Cardinals camp, they’ve drifted out to a sizeable (for pre-season at least) favorite in this one.

The real fly in the ointment on this one, and something a bit unusual that could maybe limit how long starters or even backups play: The field in AZ is not in good shape. Unlike most teams that practice away from their home field at a facility meant for camp, the Cardinals have been training on the turf at State Farm Stadium.

Payton blew it off for the most part:

“We’ll go out as best as can ahead of the game and get an idea of which shoes," Payton said on Wednesday. "They had trouble with the Super Bowl there. I don’t know if it’s the same field. I know they practice there all during training camp. My experience with that field is that it has always been a fast and firm track. It may not always be green because they are getting so much work on it, but it’s always been a good, firm surface that you can run on. We’ll pay attention to it when we get there. If we have to change what we are wearing, then that is part of the deal.”

I’m concerned, to be honest, but we’ll see how it shakes out.

15 or so snaps is the word out of camp for the starters tonight. Wilson has looked sharp in practice and as much of a nerd as he is, I’m hoping to see some vintage Russ tonight. Jarrett Stidham and Ben Dinucci will back him up.

Not sounding like Javonte Williams will get into a real game just yet as he recovers from last year’s knee injury. Second-round WR Marvin Mims was a little banged up in practice but has apparently recovered enough that he should get his first NFL reps tonight.

Cardinals

Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune, David Blough, Jeff Driskel. Not exactly a murderer’s row.

From beat reporter Darren Urban:

“We know Colt McCoy will start at QB. How many snaps he gets and whether Jonathan Gannon plays all four QBs is TBD. Of course, it'll be rookie Clayton Tune that everyone will be watching. I still think McCoy is basically a lock to start the season, but If Tune has any chance, it starts now.”

My biggest takeaway from digging into the Cardinals this week: they are 32 of 32 as far as local hype. Every other fan base has 15 articles of “10 guys to watch in week 1 of the preseason while Arizona’s fan pages are littered with fluff pieces and other harbingers of a forgettable season.

Yeah, there are some things to watch for with some veteran defenders moving around a bit and the entire new coaching staff, but I’m about as excited for their season as the fans apparently and will be spending most of this game evaluating Denver.

Betting

There seems to be NO appetite for Arizona in this one, with some shops now touching -6 for Denver and their first half-line sitting at -5. Denver in a teaser with Miami or Detroit, maybe?

Giants at Lions | 7 p.m.

Opened Giants -2.5, Total 36.5, slight Lions money and under steam, currently -2 / 35

Lions

No Goff, and with Teddy Two Gloves just arriving it’ll likely be a split between Nate Sudfield and Adrian Martinez with rookie Hendon Hooker on the NFI list.

Seeing camp favorite Sam LaPorta and rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs in real action is a fun thought until you glance back up and remind yourself who’s starting at QB. Not really sure how much time any of the starters or even rookies will play seeing how they had so much time in the joint practices already.

Giants

Should be Tyrod Taylor starting with Tommy Devito in relief at QB. Again, very few starters are the expectation, Daniel Jones obviously included.

Jalin Hyatt has a chance to get the Giants faithful excited as they’ve been dying of thirst for a WR1 for a minute now. Hopefully, he gets at least a quarter of work. Newly drafter lineman John Michael Schmitz should get some reps in, but as a slated starter would also likely be used sparingly.

Betting

Nothing strong, but the steam to the under certainly checks out considering the second half could be a heavy dose of bad QB play. If you need to degen this one, you can likely still find an under 35.5

Steelers at Buccs | 7 p.m.

Opened a pick’em with a total of 39 and has moved on Pittsburgh news, the total is up to 40 and the Steelers are 3-point favorites.

Steelers

Maybe one we should have seen coming, Tomlin hasn’t been shy about getting the number ones some reps in the preseason. Here’s a chart I found on Twitter (h/t @mibpj2).

Can’t see Kenny Pickett playing too much, maybe 2-3 drives?

Mitch Trubisky played two drives to start last year, for reference. Pickett and Mason Rudolph both saw a good chunk of time in relief in that game, so again, likely more of the same from Pittsburgh with Mitch and Mason playing. Rookie Tanner Morgan is a possibility as well as some see it as a competition for the 3rd spot.

We won’t see Joey Porter, Jr as he missed some practice time with an ankle injury. Broderick Jones has struggled a bit in camp but the 14th overall pick still has plenty of time to sort it out, starting tonight.

Buccaneers

Mayfield announced to be the starter this week, guessing we’ll see lots of both him and Kyle Trask with a very real competition for the regular season starter one. John Wolford is the #3, just not sure at what point they want to get away from the two QBs they need to be evaluating, if at all.

Outside of that, I suppose we get a first look at rookie RG Cody Mauch. Top pick Calijah Kancey is out with a calf injury and hopes to be ready to go for week one.

Betting

Nothing here, missed the Steelers’ steam but set an alarm in my phone to remind me to just bet the Steelers immediately when next year’s preseason lines go up. Likely get some closing line value for doing nothing but being quick.

Falcons at Dolphins | 7 p.m

A little push and pull but the current lines are far from the openers. The Falcons are 2-point favorites with a total of 37.

Falcons

Desmond Ridder is expected to start but Arthur Smith was still “nailing down” how much the starters will play yesterday.

Last year Marcus Mariota played sparingly in the first game, only throwing twice. He saw much more action in the second preseason game. So, I’m not expecting a lot of Ridder until next week, especially since the team had the added benefit of the joint practices with the Phins. Taylor Heinicke should get a bunch of playing time and Logan Woodside could see the field late I suppose.

What else to watch for: Uh, It’s Bijan Time. Excited to see the young skill position players out there early.

Dolphins

McDaniel hasn’t been terribly forthcoming with info, so looking back at last year:

Teddy is in Detroit, in steps Mike White and my guess is it’s a mix between him and Skylar tonight. Sidenote though, Thompson is a bit of a preseason hero. He was 36/48 for 450 yards with 5 TDs and no INTs last year in exhibitions.

The assumption is no Tua as White and Thompson make their cases to be the #2

Plenty of hype around rookie RB De’von Achane, who's gotten praise from some vets and has the fantasy community all jacked up. If I tune in, CB Cam Smith will be high on my list of players to scope out, considering his added responsibilities in the wake of the Jalen Ramsey injury.

Betting

Waiting to really understand the QB rotation, but will be looking to back Miami in the 2nd half if we get Skylar Thompson vs. Heinicke and would be even more excited to take them if it’s Logan Woodside.

Commanders at Browns | 7:30 p.m.

This opened with the Browns as a pick or slight favorite and steamed up to the current -3 on the news that Deshaun Watson will start for Cleveland. The total hasn’t seen much movement, up to 38.5/39 off the open of 38.

Commanders

The quote from the other day:

“Commanders likely going Howell for a scoring drive, or two subpar ones. Then Brissett for the rest of the first half. “ 

This is maybe the other half of why the markets are leaning on Cleveland, this could mean an entire second half of Jake Fromm.

I still want to see Brissett get his chance to start here, but the team seems at least semi-committed to Howell. For sure one of the only real interesting QB battles of the preseason considering a pretty decent skill position group for a 4th place team. Will try to at least catch this 1st quarter live or by replay to see the Commander’s starters.

Browns

Watson will get some run to start things. With the Browns treating last week as a bonus game, maybe we end up with some Josh Dobbs after that. Last year saw Stefanski using two QBs after taking Watson out in the first preseason game, and after last week maybe it’s DTR over Mond for mop-up?

Backup RB Jerome Ford hurt his hammy in practice this week so we’ll catch plenty of runs from the same guys you saw last week in the HOF game, including heavily used John Kelly Jr. Outside of sorting out the depth there, it’s probably a case of rotating a lot of guys through on the D-Line to see how the rotation will look after the top end of Garrett and Smith.

Betting

I sort of liked the Commanders here getting the points as I really don’t think we see the starting offense for very long. But after seeing some nice play by Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week, I’m not excited to be possibly relying on Jake Fromm in the 2H. Passing hard on this one.

Still ended up with a damn book today, likely more of the same for Saturday’s games as I figure out the in-flight WiFi in the morning. If I missed something (seems likely as earlier I forgot that Hendon Hooker had blown out his knee) hit me on Twitter and let me know.

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