Five Reasons Russell Wilson Will Be BACK

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A ton has happened to set up a wildly precarious situation in the Mile High City.

After a series of failed forays into finding the next QB to lead their team, the Broncos finally just said “the hell with it” and paid out the nose for a proven product.

In a massive deal, they traded away Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, the 9th overall pick last year, 2023’s first-round pick, two years ’ worth of 2nd round picks and a fifth-rounder for Danger Russ plus a fourth-rounder coming back.

On top of that, you signed him to (what is now) a top-five quarterback deal that includes dead salary cap hits of $107 million, $85 million, and $49.5 million over the next three years.

What did your massive investment in a future Hall of Famer get you?

The more I look at this team, this division, this conference, the more I realize what a no-brainer it was to bring in a top-end coach, no matter the cost. You screwed up year one of a 242 million-dollar QB contract with Hackett already, The AFC is an absolute gauntlet, and you’re in the same division as the reigning champs.

Trading a first-rounder for someone who won’t be on the field feels like an overpay at first glance but Sean Payton is still shy of 60 years old, you could perceivably get 10+ years of high-end coaching out of him, plus his salary ($18 million a year, reportedly) doesn’t go against the cap.

The first round pick in question does have some history, originally belonging to San Francisco, traded to Miami in part of the deal to move up and take Trey Lance, later traded to Denver by Miami to acquire Bradley Chubb, and now finally moved to the Saints for Sean Payton.

Past success isn’t always indicative of future results but, I’m fairly confident that we see a bit of a Russ Rennaissance this year, for a few different reasons.

1. We ALREADY SAW AN IMPROVEMENT! After the Hackett firing, OC Klint Kubiak was replaced by Justin Outten for the last two games. It was a small sample with two weird games and a bit tough to drill down on as they faced the Chiefs in KC and a Chargers team that likely should have sat some starters to close the season. In those final games, Russ had six total TDs and 2 interceptions in being very efficient in the short underneath game (as well as his rushing) vs. KC and finding some longer stuff against the Chargers. It wasn’t great, but we saw glimpses of what could be again.

2. This one’s a bit “narrative town”, but stick with me. Decision-making and play-calling aside, the Hackett - Wilson relationship never felt like one of mutual respect. A first-year head coach having to deal with a veteran QB who was feeling himself a bit was doomed to fail I suppose? Coming up as a young player under Pete Carroll lent itself to the success we saw over the years in Seattle. It never felt like Hackett had control of the locker room or any sort of buy-in from his QB.

3. We should see play-action rates go up considerably. Without getting deep into the numbers, there were a handful of games where the use of this misdirection was executed at laughably low rates for a quarterback who’s shown for his entire career to excel on play-action passing. Payton hasn’t had a tendency to call a high rate of PA historically, but he’s a smart enough fellow to know that it needs to increase.

4. Play sequencing should improve immensely. A big part of what made Drew Brees effective in his later years was being put in advantageous positions via the game plan. Sean Payton called a ton of passes on first down, especially late in Brees’ career. Sequencing sounds so simple, yet it’s still butchered so often. Well-designed pass plays on first down have a higher success rate and lead to sustained drives. The best way to convert third downs is to never see third downs. The Broncos ran a ton on 1st and 10, which likely exacerbated Russ’ struggles. If we see the opposite this year, things will go much smoother.

5. Some of the actual knocks that ARE on Russ feel like things that can be improved upon with a competent coaching staff. He definitely held on to the ball too long, too often. His pre-snap reads were lacking and going through his progressions after the ball was snapped didn’t always go smoothly. I don’t expect him to become Peyton Manning overnight, or ever for that matter, because that isn’t him. Carroll knew that in Seattle and I’m pretty sure Payton has a good idea of what he has here as well. When you have a known product with the physical tools and the experience though, there should be plenty of time to work on these things and get him looking more comfortable and competent in this offense. Truthfully, I’m not 100% sure Sean Payton takes this job if he doesn’t think he can fix Wilson.

What I expect: Somewhere between last year and the height of his powers in Seattle (2015-2020). There are too many stud QBs for him to have a realistic chance to be a top 5 guy again, but his ceiling is certainly near the top 10 if this all goes to plan.

Betting on Russ:

• Passing TDs O/U: 24.5

• Passing Yards O/U: 3650.5

• To throw 30+ TDs: +200

• To throw 35+ TDs: +650

• MVP: +4000

• Comeback Player: +3000

As much as I love him to succeed, I’m probably not looking to tie up money on long-term QB over props on a guy that turns 35 this year. Maybe there’s some upside on the alt TD prop lines but certainly stay away from MVP and Comeback Player. Even with a career year, there are just too many names to leapfrog in both markets, the prices just aren’t big enough. Instead, I’ll take a look at the Denver Team Odds for this upcoming year (we spent an hour previewing them last week in podcast form).

Similarly to the Wilson odds, there’s not a ton to love here even with my rosy outlook on the QB. The defense should be good again, they likely don’t have the same amount of injuries as last year and the offense can only go up. So, I found a prop to add to my growing list of pre-season futures over at DraftKings. It’s about as far as I can go with this team as far as realistic upside

OFFICIAL BRONCOS BET was going to be the exact 1-2 finish of Kansas City 1st and Denver 2nd at +330, but in a stunning turn of events, there’s a better way to play that.

If this bet wins, there are only two outcomes for the complete four-team AFC West Forecast, the two combos of LV and LAC in 3rd and 4th:

A little Dutching math says that take $100 and put $73.68 on the first prop and $26.32 on the second, You’ve created the exact same bet, except at a synthetic +452 instead. So, it’s really the same thing, just mathed out a bit to extract some bonus value for the Broncos to be a lot better (but not better than KC, cause that’s silly).

If you have more guts, you could just play the one exacta at +650 for an even better payout.

In a confusing and overly dramatic saga, the Giants and Saquon Barkley came to an agreement this morning. The running back won’t miss any camp time and the long national nightmare is over.

A couple of points about this as it unfolded on Twitter this morning:

This is likely good for all parties involved. I don’t think a holdout helps Saquon even though it was probably the only leverage he had. Obviously, he helps the Giants in their quest to reach the NFC playoffs again. So, kind of a win-win where the team actually wins.

This DOES NOT stop the Giants from tagging him again next year, so we could just do this all over again. The two parties can try to work out a long-term deal after the season now, but I would assume the Giants would make a similar offer to the one that was rejected this spring.

It does come with 2 million up front, which is nice, but it appears that the extra money via the incentives are also tied to the Giants making the playoffs.

The Betting markets currently have the Giants at around a 36% likelihood to make the 2023 postseason (via DraftKings).

The general sentiment is that the RB Zoom call didn’t do much though, the market will continue to trend the way it is and Saq didn’t do his fellow rock-toters any favors. Former Eagles president Joe Banner didn’t love him caving this early

Another Gambling Suspension is handed down to a Bronco

Chase Claypool Back at practice after spending a couple of days on the PUP

Jimmy Garoppolo is cleared and ready to go

Teddy Bridgewater is looking for his seventh team

Patriots add an offensive weapon

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