The Playoffs start today! Sort of. The Ravens are resting, but the other three teams today are all eliminated or pretty much eliminated with a loss (Steelers have a back door in if three other games fall right).

Some quick notes on the games today!

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (+3 / 34)

• Market: Hard Ravens Steam yesterday! This came down slowly off the +4 over the past two days and yesterday got knocked to a flat 3. The total has been working its way lower as well, somewhat due to the players sitting out but also probably due to the ….

• Weather: Looking windy and wet. The rain will be the heaviest pre-game and in the first half. It may taper back a bit but it appears that we’ll be getting rain/mix all day along with some 15-20 mph winds.

Two very different levels of motivation in this one:

The Ravens ruled out Lamar Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr., G Kevin Zeitler, CB Marlon Humphrey, LB Malik Harrison, and DB Daryl Worley. In addition, Zay Flowers did not practice all week and is doubtful.

On top of missing Humphry in the secondary, star safety Kyle Hamilton missed some practice time and is questionable. DBs Brandon Stephens, Ronald Darby, Ar'Darius Washington, and Arthur Maulet are all questionable.

The Steelers listed Minkah Fitzpatrick, LB Elandon Robers, and S Trenton Thompson as questionable. Kenny Pickett is good to go, but he will again be the backup.

…..

Does Mason Rudolph’s hot streak continue? Against a secondary missing several key pieces, it feels sort of likely but, this is a high-pressure game on the road in some nasty conditions.

Tough handicap having seen so little of Tyler Huntley and knowing deep in my heart that Mason Rudolph isn’t very good. I liked this quite a bit at +4 and spoke about it earlier this week. The steam leaves less meat on the bone, but I still think this is playable at +3 considering the market is trying to make a two-touchdown adjustment for the resting players in a game with a very low total (I’d make this almost -11 if the Ravens were playing to win).

Snoop Huntley is a nice backup since he can step right in and run a similar offense. A WR corps of Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and Tylan Wallace isn’t the worst set of backups known to man, and on top of it, I think we’re going to get a fairly normal mix of the running backs. I hate betting on a pre-season roster versus a team playing with heavy motivation, but I really think this adjustment should have been smaller and would have lined this around Steelers -1.

The other issue is that I haven’t won a bet I’ve written about on a Saturday yet this year. So, I’m splitting some money up on a few different looks here. Quarter-sized bets, spraying the board, looking to just get off the schneid:

Ravens +3

Ravens ML +141

Pickens over 45.5 rec yards -110

Tyler Huntley anytime TD +350

Houston @ Indianapolis (+1.5 / 47.5)

• Market: This has been one-way action toward the Texans, now out to -2 after opening with Indy as a one-point favorite. The total has held fairly steady, bouncing back and forth between 47 and 47.5.

• Injuries:

  • Houston: As reported the other day, WR Noah Brown and team sacks leader Jonathan Greenard are OUT. Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins, Maliek Collins, Laremy Tunsil, Robert Woods, and FB Andrew Beck are listed as questionable. Anderson and Tunsil are expected to play.

  • Indy: the injuries on the offensive line are troublesome but, center Ryan Kelly and guard Quenton Nelson did get some practice time in. In a do-or-die game, it would seem that’d be enough to get them on the field tonight. RT Braden Smith is expected to go after getting several full practices in. CB Kenny Moore and RB Zach Moss are also expected to play, but CB Chris Lammons was unable to practice and is OUT.

Playoff scenarios are usually as clear as mud, but what is clear is that the loser can start making tee times while the winner has to start cheering for the Titans tomorrow. Winning secures at least a wildcard spot, but either team can pass the Jaguars and take the AFC South crown with a win and a Jags loss.

With the offensive line intact here, I still have the Colts as a slight favorite in my pricing. We saw a little bit of action both ways this morning, but the Texans have been a popular bet on gameday for most of the 2nd half of the season, so maybe Colts backers were expecting a bit of that and waiting for a price.

Neither team has had an impressive schedule down the stretch, and with Stroud missing some time, it’s a bit tricky evaluating this Texans team that everyone has fallen in love with. Looking at the first matchup between these teams is probably useless since so much has changed since September.

Looking deeper at my ratings, I think a lot of where my pricing for this comes from is my expectation that the Colts offense has a higher ceiling here, especially at home. I’ll have a small bet on the Colts straight up as well but what I’ve been looking for all week here was a dancing partner for a teaser spot I like a ton. Home team that I think should be favored in a divisional game that I expect to be close.

Teasing this with Denver. The Broncos number moved against me a little, but this was the plan and I’ll be damned if I’m not teasing Denver in this spot and hell, I’ll take an extra half point.

6-point teaser: Colts +7.5 / Broncos +9