Just one game, Saturday before New Year’s Eve, going to make every attempt to keep it short.

• Markets: Push and pull around the -6 that opened Sunday night. The price is leaning closer to the -5.5 right now as any -6s are very cheap. The Sunday opener for the total was 52 and has come back to that after midweek money pushed that total as high as 54

• Injuries: It appeared that DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson would have a chance to return this week, but he along with backup TE Brock Wright were ruled out. CB Cam Sutton was also added to the injury report and is listed as questionable with a toe injury. He did not practice Thursday, his absence would be yet another problem for the Lions secondary. The Cowboys ruled out RB Rico Dowdle and DT Johnathan Hankins again this week. OT Tyron Smith is listed as questionable with his back injury. There seems to be some hope he can go after missing last week vs Miami.

There’s plenty of talk of the “let down” spot for the Lions after the high of finally clinching a division title last week, but with two winnable games left and the fact that they control their own destiny for the #2 seed (with an outside shot at the #1) makes it feel like they’ll keep the foot on the gas here. All that aside, Dan Campbell doesn’t strike me as a coach who would coast into the playoffs anyway.

Dallas is technically not locked into their position either. There are scenarios to win the division where they can win out and pass Philadelphia for the NFC East crown via tiebreakers. If not, they are very much locked into the fifth seed.

Also, it’s Saturday. Neither team will have any additional info regarding games happening earlier in the day, nor can they even scoreboard watch.

Dallas has played well against some of the better teams in the league of late despite its reputation as a bully against the dregs of the NFL. Even in the losses versus Miami and Philadelphia, there are glimmers of what this team could be if they finally put it all together.

Against a secondary like this, you’d expect Lamb to eat all day (his receiving props are set at 7.5 catches and 99.5 yards). K.J. Osborn had 95 yards last week against this squad last week as the WR2, so I’m not sure how they manage to slow down the Dallas passing game outside of just keeping them off the field altogether.

That is part of the reason I’m steering clear of playing the hot side and taking the points with Detroit. I think there is a little value there, but there are plenty of scenarios where they just don’t keep pace with what the defense is surrendering to a good Dallas team.

I had also leaned a little into this under (I think Det covering is correlated), but it appears I missed the best of the price, and I will look at some props…

Part of the reason I liked this to stay under was the matchup we saw a few weeks back with Cook roasting this Dallas defense on the ground. The Lions are healthy up front and have the running scheme to do the same thing. Plus, Johnathan Hankins matters a ton for the Cowboys’ run-stop game.

Almost got cute with it and bet on both Detroit backs, but today I’ll just be making small bets on the rookie RB as his usage seems to be steady and maybe even rising.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 50.5 rushing yards -125

Jahmyr Gibbs over 80.5 rushing + receiving yards -115

Weather to Watch ☁

Not gospel, never is, but just some games to monitor. The best practice is to just double-check the weather at a few places before you mash submit on anything.

• Atlanta at Chicago - Winds could be 15-20 with gusts higher. Some sites are giving this upwards of a 70% chance of snow during the game

• New England @ Buffalo - High percentage chance of precipitation, the question will be whether we see snow or rain. Could be what we call a “wintery mix”, which sucks.

• Pittsburgh at Seattle - Wildly varying reports on the chance of rain. Some places say under 20%, some say 80%. Going to just check it again in the morning.

Injury Updates 🤕

• To my surprise, they somehow ruled out Trevor Lawrence

• Jacoby Brissett may not get his start this week. He’s looking like a game-time decision. Howell would go if he can’t.

• Will Levis is the starter again for Tennessee

• Puka Nacua is listed as questionable and missed some practice but is expected to go

• Courtland Sutton has been ruled out for Denver

• For the Chargers, Keenan Allen is out again. Joey Bosa and Josh Palmer as well.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster is out for New England, Zeke and LT Trent Brown will play

• Jaylen Waddle was ruled out for Miami. Guard Robert Hunt is doubtful and another half dozen or so offensive players are questionable.

• DK Metcalf WILL PLAY for Seattle on Sunday, Devon Witherspoon has a chance and will be a game-time call. Jamal Adams was ruled out

• Niners are at full strength: Deebo, Purdy, and LT Trent Williams are all good to go

• Kyler Murray is still fighting an illness and is listed as questionable. Hollywood Brown was sent to the IR by the Cardinals.

• Packers: Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave, and De'Vondre Campbell are doubtful vs. Vikings.

• Josh Jacobs could miss another game for the Raiders, he’s a game-time decision.

Finally, I did not forget clinching scenarios/who might not be playing for anything next week.

It’s just taking a little time. I’ll have the whole thing laid out in the morning, so check your email.