Lots of injuries, per the norm, but a couple of QBs exited the game yesterday.

Daniel Jones suffered a neck injury that apparently is similar to the one that caused him to miss time in 2021. He’ll have an MRI today and we’ll go from there.

Anthony Richardson left a game early for the third time in his young career, this time he looked to be in a considerable amount of pain and the prognosis isn’t great. Could be Minshew time ‘til Thanksgiving.

My quick takeaways from each game yesterday:

Jacksonville 25 - Buffalo 20 (London)

Travel spot was impactful I suppose. Bills’ offense didn’t look great to start this game. The first four Buffalo drives went for a total of 52 yards and 4 punts. They got it together too late as Jacksonville was great on third down and was able to put together several late drives to help salt this one away. Jacksonville now gets to acclimate back to U.S. time after two full weeks in Europe.

Houston 19 - Atlanta 21

Ridder with a little bit of time to operate looked good; he has the weapons. Stroud wasn’t as sharp and still somehow took zero sacks/had zero turnovers again. Texans didn’t finish drives, four FGs and 1-3 in the red zone doomed them on the road.

Carolina 24 - Detroit 42

Not a competitive game. Late week money on Carolina never had a shot even with Detroit missing multiple offensive contributors. Adam Thielen is going to rack up 1,500 yards on a winless team. Lions’ offense keeps getting better, dying to see them against another good team, will have to settle for TB off their bye.

Tennessee 16 - Indianapolis 23

Lots of yards on both sides, but a combined 2-9 in the red zone. Hopkins showing his worth finally and Zach Moss had a really big day despite JT returning. Richardson's injury sucks, but Minshew is probably a top-5 backup.

NY Giants 16 - Miami 31

Also, not competitive. Miami with some horrific turnovers made this one look closer than it was. Giants outgained by 250 yards and the line gave up seven sacks. Miami went for 9.7 yards per play, which is hilariously just their second-best mark of the year. Daniel Jones' neck injury is worth monitoring.

New Orleans 34 - New England 0

Not competitive, but also a bit misleading. New Orleans wasn’t great on offense, they had drives that started at the NE 29, 31, 33 and scored on a pick-6. New England's offense somehow is worse than last year?!?

Baltimore 10 - Pittsburgh 17

Lots of miscues for Baltimore. They kind you can’t have in a divisional game on the road against a well-coached team. A blocked punt for a safety, three turnovers, and only 1-3 in the red zone won’t get it done even against bad offenses (and this offense might be worse than New England).

Philadelphia 23 - LA Rams 14

Philly getting it done on the road with a great second half of keep-away ball. They’ll need these wins, the schedule gets way tougher soon. Kupp looked fine and the Rams offense will have better days for sure, but the defense never getting off the field limited that.

Cincinnati 34 - Arizona 20

Dobbs finally had a bit of a bad game and the outside coverage isn’t on the level of Ja'Marr Chase. Burrow looked a lot better, but it’s clear he still isn’t 100%. Watching him scramble a few times and being able to get a deep ball off was a bad sign for the rest of the AFC North.

NY Jets 31 - Denver 21

Weirdest game of the week. From my eye test, I swore I was going to find a box score that looked sort of even, but the Jets really put one on them, especially on the ground (7.3 yards/carry). Just didn’t execute in the red zone (OH FOR FIVE!) which kept this one closer. Denver's comeback attempt ended with a whimper (that went the other way for six).

Kansas City 27 - Minnesota 20

Vikings were in this one but you need to do everything right to beat the champs, even at home. An early turnover, wasting a timeout on a bad challenge, and losing Justin Jefferson for the end of the game was enough to keep the Vikes from adding a second win. Updates on Jefferson’s hamstring and Kelce’s ankle are all I care about going forward for these teams.

Dallas 10 - San Francisco 42

Good old-fashioned shellacking. Dallas didn’t have a first down in the 1st quarter here as the speedy 49ers defense was getting pressure from all over. The highlight for the ‘Boys was a really well-thrown ball by Dak for a long TD, but it was bleak outside of that. The 49ers were efficient AF and got to kick their feet up a little late and let the pass rush just have fun with a lead.

Market

Lookahead here was Packers -1, total 44

Some early Green Bay money had the Pack out to as much as -2 Monday, but it was steady one-way traffic toward Las Vegas most of the week. Jimmy Garappolo being cleared along with some uncertainty around key Packers’ players has seen this get pushed out to as high as -2.5 this morning

Mostly over money including a small bump upwards this morning (the Davante Adams news, perhaps?) taking us up to past 46 at some places before seeing some resistance.

Matchup

The Packers offensive line will be mostly together (Bakhtiari is done, obviously), with Jenkins, Runyan, and Tom all good to go. Aaron Jones (hamstring) was on a snap count last week and again will be listed as questionable. CB Jaire Alexander (back), and safety Rudy Ford (oblique) are also listed as questionable and LB De'Vondre Campbell has been ruled out.

For Las Vegas, Davante Adams is listed as questionable but will be playing according to reports today. CBs Jakorian Bennett and David Long are questionable with CB Nate Hobbs ruled out.

Neither defense has played particularly well this year, so the good news on the offensive side coupled with the bad news for the defenders isn’t going to help.

Betting

No real interest in the prop menu with so many moving pieces on Green Bay’s side and the Davante props priced high (as they should be).

With the injuries to an already struggling Raiders secondary, extra time for LaFleur to prepare, and the full complement of weapons for Jordan Love, maybe it’s a spot where we see this offense break out a little bit.

Love him or hate him, Jimmy Garappolo is fairly efficient and has his WR1 in. Both teams have really struggled to get the ground game going, but Josh Jacobs is still a guy who led the league in yardage last year and gets a team without an important piece in the run game again (Campbell). Detroit was able to put up 200+ on 4.9 yards per carry last week.

Jacobs has had games of 48, -2, 62 and 58 so far this year after averaging 97/game in 2022. His yardage prop today is 75.5 if you believe.

This all leads to me chasing the steam on this over today. Very small bet because I don’t have any action, but with the slight buyback down to 45.5 again, I’ll take a small nibble.

Packers/Raiders over 45.5 -110

Again, maybe go see what Noops is on, but these are where I’m at this morning and why I liked them. As always, I did the shopping… try to find the best prices you can, it makes a big difference in the long run.

Davante Adams +700 (FD)

Tied for fifth in targets in the league with one fewer game played than 27 other teams

Romeo Doubs +1400 (DK)

Still on the field a ton even with Watson back

Jayden Reed +2200 (MGM)

Packers’ Red Zone Target Leader

Austin Hooper +2700 (FD)

Running as many routes as Renfroe but at a better price.