Good morning, welcome to week four. No time to chat, Dublin game starts in like an hour. Let’s get right into it.

Injuries 🤕

• Ravens TE Isaiah Likely is expected to make his season debut today vs KC. The team also placed DE Nnamdi Madukuike on the IR with a neck injury.

• WR Xavier Worthy will make his return for the Chiefs

• Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt is listed as questionable but expected to play

• Colts WR Alec Pierce will miss this week with a concussion

• Rams WR Davante Adams is expected to go today for the Rams

• Both WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are expected to play today for the 49ers (Jennings may be limited)

• For the Panthers: WR Tet McMillan and RB Chuba Hubbard are good to go

• RB D’Andre Swift expected to play for the Bears. TE Colston Loveland is going to work out pre-game to see if he can play, but is trending toward OUT

• WR Chris Godwin and OT Tristan Wirfs are back for the Bucs

• The Giants will elevate kicker Jude McAtamney to fill in for the injured Graham Gano.

• QB Justin Fields will start for the Jets this after missing a week with a concussion.

• While he’s out this week with the quad injury, Commanders WR Terry McLaurin is NOT expected to go on the IR. QB Jayden Daniels is ruled out for the second straight week.

• Texans CB Derek Stingley is listed as questionable after getting some practice reps in late in the week.

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Weather ⛈

Not much this week. Lots of calm skies and domes.

• PHI/TB - It was looking like we’d have some rain in this one, but chances have been dropping and are now in the 10-20% range

• MNF: NYJ/MIA - projecting some stronger winds, but as you recall, the way this stadium is built, it’s not really an issue at the field level.

• MNF: CIN/DEN - Slight chance of some rain here too. 

Situational 📆

Remember, it’s already baked into the line, but it’s still worth remembering.

• The Vikings and Steelers are playing in a completely different country

• The Packers are on the second week of back to back travel, playing tonight in Dallas before their bye week.

• The Colts are also on the road for the second week in a row, heading out to Los Angeles to play the Rams after last week’s win in Nashville.

• Jags are at a bit of a travel/rest disadvantage as they head to the Bay Area to face a 49ers team that’s home for the 2nd straight week.

• The Saints are on their second straight week of travel; after having gone to Seattle in week 3, they now head up to Buffalo.

• The Chargers fall into the “west coast team playing early on the east coast” bucket, if that’s your thing

• The Dolphins have bonus rest tomorrow, having last played two Thursdays ago. They face a Jets team that will be on the road for the second straight week.

Already a better week than last week! Got the Seahawks +1 home with ease (if you fell asleep during the 4th quarter) and we even hit the 2nd half over for our FOURTH straight primetime 2nd half winner (I have no idea what our longest streak is over the years).

A bit of a lighter slate this week, but still some sides and totals I like quite a bit heading into week four.

Sunday Bets

49ers -3

Played this earlier in the week and honestly thought it'd move a bit more than it has. Mac Jones leading them to a victory has maybe taken away from the size of the upgrade for getting Purdy back. It’s also great to see Jauan Jennings back, but reports are that he may be on a bit of a snap count. Many are calling this Jags defense “improved,” but considering the opponents, I’m hesitent to crown them just yet and like the home team here.

Saints +15.5

Not for the faint of heart, as this one may just get out of hand. On the podcast, Drew pointed out how the Bills were treating some of the injured players and their recoveries this week. It felt like the team was pumping the brakes and not worrying about rushing defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano back ahead of this one, knowing that they likely can win this one without their “A” game.

Not only do my power ratings have this closer to a -13, it just has the feel of a snoozy, “keep-em-at-arms-length” win where the game never feels close, but the Saints cover a good portion (hopefully that includes the very end.)

Titans/Texans under 39.5

This line has bounced around a bit, but I still have this as my lowest pre-game projected total of the season so far. This is by far my worst-rated offense in Tennessee going up against a top-5 unit, the Texans ’ defense.

On the other side, it’s not much better for the Titans, but Houston’s offense has been so ineffectual behind that horrid offensive line, the Tenny defense may look good just by comparison (see: the week 3 Jags), as they do have some pass rushers who can get home.

Bears/Raiders over 47.5

The Bears continue to be injured on the defensive side of the ball, with linebacker T.J. Edwards (hamstring), and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (knee) joining Jaylon Johnson in street clothes. In what should be damn near a home game for the Bears, I’m hoping to see Ben Johnson continue to get more comfortable in his new role and start to dial up more of what made him successful in Detroit.

If he can avoid the boneheaded mistakes he loves in the red zone, I also love this matchup for Geno Smith against a defense missing players at every level.

We reviewed every game from this Sunday earlier this week. Time stamps in the video if you want to jump around and find the game that has you intrigued/bemused.

One last thing: could you do me a favor and forward this email to someone you think might appreciate a little more football in their life?