Injuries 🤕

• Arizona Cardinals

  • Paris Johnson is now on the IR

  • Budda Baker has been ruled out, S Jalen Thompson is questionable

  • MHJ is questionable with his heel injury

• Atlanta Falcons

  • CB Mike Hughes is out

  • Drake London is questionable

• Buffalo Bills

  • Both TEs, Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are listed as questionable

  • DT DaQuan Jones (calf) and DT Jordan Phillips (ankle) are out

  • S Jordan Poyer is out

• Carolina Panthers

  • LB Trevin Wallace (shoulder), DT Tershawn Wharton (hamstring) and G Robert Hunt (biceps) are out

• Chicago Bears

  • WR Rome Odunze remains out

• Cincinnati Bengals

  • DE Joseph Ossai (ankle) is ruled out

• Cleveland Browns

  • TE David Njoku is out, Harold Fannin is questionable.

• Indianapolis Colts

  • DT DeForest Buckner is out

  • C Tanor Bortolini remains out with a concussion

  • G Dalton Tucker (shoulder) is out

• Jacksonville Jaguars

  • OL Patrick Mekari (back), CB Jourdan Lewis (foot), and RB Bhayshul Tuten (finger) are all out

• Las Vegas Raiders

  • Maxx Crosby is being shut down for the year, joining Brock Bowers

  • OT Kolton Miller is out

• Los Angeles Rams

  • OL Kevin Dotson is out

  • WR Davante Adams is doubtful to play

• Miami Dolphins

  • S Minkah Fitzpatrick has been ruled out

• New England Patriots

  • WR Kayshon Boutte (concussion) and WR Mack Hollins (abdomen) are out

  • TreVeyon Henderson is set to return from concussion protocol

  • LB Harold Landry (knee), LB Robert Spillane (ankle), DL Khyiris Tonga (foot), and DT Milton Williams (ankle) are out

• New Orleans Saints

  • RB Alvin Kamara is out again

• New York Giants

  • OL Evan Neal (neck), LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring), and C John Michael Schmitz (finger) are out

  • CB Cor’Dale Flott is questionable

• New York Jets

  • DL Will McDonald (knee), DL Jay Tufele (foot) and LB Kiko Mauigoa (neck) are out

• Philadelphia Eagles

  • OT Lane Johnson is still out

  • LB Nakobe Dean is out as well

• Pittsburgh Steelers

  • LB T.J. Watt will again be out due to the lung injury

  • WR Calvin Austin III (hamstring) is out

  • DK Metcalf is suspended

  • G Isaac Seumalo (triceps) is also out

• San Francisco 49ers

  • George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall are questionable heading into tonight

• Seattle Seahawks

  • S Coby Bryant (knee) and OT Charles Cross (hamstring) are out

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • OT Tristan Wirfs is out

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Weather ⛈

Per the norm, it’s not looking great in Cleveland.

• Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Wind AND rain. 15 mph winds with gusts in the 20s plus a decent chance of rain throughout the game.

• Philly at Buffalo: Heavy rain all day long here. Winds won’t be too bad, but this could be played in a downpour at times.

• Arizona at Cincy: Some chance of rain, but much less so than Cleveland. Heavy winds with gusts into the 30s.

• New Orleans at Tennessee: slight chance of some rain, but plenty of wind here as well, with gusts well into the 30s.

Situational 📆

• Speaking of the weather in Cincy, the Cardinals are in their only real “outdoors in a cold-weather city” game of the year this week.

• The Colts are on short rest after playing MNF last week, but the Jaguars are on back-to-back weeks on the road

• The Rams have extra rest playing on MNF after a TNF last week but will be on the road for the second straight week in Atlanta

• The Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, and Buccaneers are also on back-to-back weeks on the road.

Sunday Bets

Gonna be honest, I don’t love a lot this week. It doesn’t get easier down the stretch. Tons of teams with very mixed motivations, along with the market in general getting sharper as the season progresses. Throw in half a dozen backup QBs, and it’s a big mess. Still, it’s not like I’m not going to make a few wagers. Chalky Sunday ahead of backing the underdog Monday (added more Falcons at +9).

Bengals -7 -104

I looked at this total and even the Bengals' team total, but eventually concluded that the offense and Joe Burrow aren’t packing it in at all, especially in matchups they can win (see last week vs. Miami). I didn’t think the Cardinals’ defense could get any more injured, but now we’ve seen Budda Baker ruled out and Josh Sweat questionable with no practice this week. The total here is in the low 50s, and the Cardinals will surely score. I just don’t see them keeping pace on the road, though.

Bears/49ers over 52.5 +100

Despite Salah rallying the troops a bit lately and the Bears' secondary finding a couple of INTs every single game, these defenses are both bottom 10 in the league in my numbers. Hopefully, Kittle goes (he’s going to test his ankle out pregame), but even with some missing pieces offensively, I trust Shanny to put together a decent game plan here. And, obviously, I trust Ben Johnson with my life. Both offenses should be in advantageous spots all day.

Ashton Jeanty 100+ Rushing +300

Dart isn’t 100%, Bowers is done for the year, and both teams are packing it in. But, when asked, coach Pete seemed pretty jazzed about the chanced of getting Jeanty to the 1000 yard mark over the next two weeks, and considering the abyssmal state of the Giants rush defense, I think he’s likely to pop off a couple of long ones (I also played some o14.5 yards - longest rush) and should see plenty of volume again today.

We did the show a couple of days early this week to facilitate some travel, so bear with us on the injury news and whatnot, but still went game by game with some takes and thoughts.

One last thing, do me a favor and forward this email to someone you think may like a little more football in their life.