Favorite Sunday Bet

Part situation, part matchup, & part raw numbers. But also maybe driven hard by yesterday’s results. Is there going to be a unifying theory in the 2024 NFL season based around “Sam Darnold maybe wasn’t that good”?

Half of the handicap yesterday for the Commmanders’ Team Total Over was simply that fact. I didn’t believe that the Lions’ defense had gotten orders of magnitude better simply by getting Alex Anzalone back. Sure, he’s great, but they were still down a dozen other players from the pre-season roster, and the results from week 18 were (in my mind) tainted by a scared QB turning into a 6’3” ginger pumpkin in front of our eyes.

If this theory of Sam Darnold Suckatude has legs (the boys in the lab are still working on theorems, etc.), then I would have to dock the Rams a bit for their play last week and increase the distance I have between Philly and Los Angeles in this one.

All that aside, I do start up weighting smaller chunks of the season into my playoff power ratings, and my “last 5” and “last 10” week samples of defense have the Eagles starting to separate from the pack a bit as an elite unit. It’s been a hot minute (since the last time they played the Eagles, in week 12) that the Rams have had to face a defense that I currently have in the top 12.

All of this and we still haven’t gotten to what the Eagles can do to you offensively. Just like last night’s game: it’s so hard to stop a team when they often are working with four downs, and in the Eagles’ case, when 4th and shorts are damn near automatic.

With adjustments for matchups and how highly I think of this offensive line (limiting one of the strengths of the Rams’ defense in their pass rush), I am well out past a touchdown and agree with this line movement.

Eagles -6.5 -115

Injuries 🤕

• Los Angeles will list OL Alaric Jackson (chest), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (thigh), and DT Bobby Brown III (shoulder) as questionable, but all three are expected to go. After coughing up some blood last week with a chest injury, TE Tyler Higbee is good to go somehow.

• The Eagles will be without DT Byron Young (hamstring). Everyone else is good to go, including TE Dallas Goedert, who missed some practice with an illness this week.

• Baltimore is listing WR Zay Flowers as doubtful with the knee injury he suffered a few weeks back. KR Deonte Harty is questionable.

• Buffalo has just one player with a designation: RB Ray Davis (concussion).

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Weather ❄️❄️❄️

• It’s almost certainly going to snow in Philadelphia. Most models have around a 90% chance. The winds should be reasonable with the possibility of some gusts of 20+, but the forecasts are calling for <10mph winds for the most part.

• There's less of a chance for snow up in Buffalo, but it’s also Lake Erie, and you just never know. Winds are fairly calm looking here as well, but it will be VERY cold with temps around 10 degrees.

Situational 📆

• The Rams played on Monday, so they do have one fewer day of rest than Philly, who are now playing the FOURTH straight home game. It’s not a 1pm ET kickoff, but it’s still an early time slot for a West Coast team (and an indoor team playing out in the elements). Rematch of a week 12 game.

• Conversely, the Ravens played Saturday night, so they have a little extra time to prep compared to the Buffalo Bills. This is a rematch from earlier in the season; the Ravens won 35-10 in September.

Saturday Retrospective

KC 23 - HOU 14

I still need to rewatch parts of the Chiefs/Texans game, but nothing is worse than multiple reasons for the god-awful “Sports are Rigged” to get up in arms again. There are bad calls by referees in every single game, but when it’s Kansas City, they are magnified by 100. 

I trust Andy Reid and whoever made the call to take the safety. I’m not sure how much time it actually bought, but there is the consideration that the Texans could have blocked the punt and returned it, setting up a spot where they had a chance at an onside kick down less than a touchdown. In the scenario that unfolded, the Chiefs still maintained a two-score lead and were able to take the free kick (which by definition cannot be blocked) and give the Texans the ball back with virtually zero chance for a miracle.

WAS 45 - DET 31

The night game feels like it will take even longer to digest, somehow. I love Jayden Daniels. I’m still surprised by Dan Quinn's aggressive nature. I’m excited that a team is somehow WAY ahead of schedule. I still had little faith that they could play in a track meet with the Lions and come out on top.

I will be thinking about the hit on Goff for a while. I know he cleared the concussion check, but his brain still had to be leaking out his ears a bit after that hit. I can’t believe they didn’t get a penalty here. It feels like they should have at least one of the officials keeping an eye on the QB during interception returns, as they are always going to be the target of some sort of violence if the chance is given.

The gaudy win-loss record and the fun play calling perhaps pulled a shroud over our eyes, but when it came down to it, you can’t have the worst QB AND the worst defense in a shootout. Put simply: it was a pretty bad time to lose the turnover battle 5-0.

I don’t want to say that Detroit lost the game more than the Commander won it. Washington’s offense looked great, and to their credit, they took care of the ball and got rid of some of the red zone ineffectiveness that has plagued them at times. Congrats to the long-suffering fans of the Commanders, though; what a turnaround after toiling under one of the worst ownership tenures we’ve seen!

Hypothetical Matchups

I just plugged my numbers in for next week and see no strong disagreements here. After last night, maybe Washington’s totals should be a bit higher, but perhaps just the WAS/LAR one, considering the Eagles’ defense. Same thing on the AFC side, but in the other direction. Those are some good offenses, but I could make a case that any game involving KC could be set closer to 45.

One last thing: do me a favor and forward this email to someone you think may like a little more football in their life.