NFC West Ratings

Plus a bonus division, since I can't count

Author

Andy Molitor
September 04, 2024

Last one, and a bit of a big newsletter, as I failed to count backwards properly and didn’t leave myself enough days before tomorrow’s opener. So, I’ll pop off some quick thoughts on both of the West divisions today.

Tonight will mark the official start of the season for content. Drew and I will sit down and go over each and every game on the week one slate. We’ll talk about our fair prices and matchups worth looking into, catch you up on injuries, and let you know who we’re betting on this week.

Live at 7 ET/ 4 PT

San Francisco 49ers

Best of the NFC, slightly ahead of the Eagles and Lions for me. Top-five on both sides of the ball despite some small deficiencies here and there. They managed to keep Aiyuk, sign Trent Williams, and head into the season looking to repeat as NFC Champs, albeit against a rather rough schedule.

Strengths

All the stuff that matters to score points. They have the best RB, arguably the best TE not named Kelce, one of the best left tackles, and a one-two punch at WR that really complements it all. In addition, they’ve found a quarterback who’s been not only coming in and running this offense but also improving within it.

Plus, a generational play-caller (at least in the regular season and the first four quarters of the Super Bowl).

Weaknesses

Depth, like everywhere. It’s what happens when you have high-end players to pay, but the folks listed after the starters on the offensive line don’t inspire confidence if we see injuries. CMC is currently backed up by Jordan Mason. Your rookie WR is recovering from a gunshot wound.

It's hard to nitpick a consensus top-three team, but if I did, it’d be this.

Wildcard

Offensive Line play. A day two rookie at right guard in Dominick Puni and an improving, but still not good Colton McKivitz at right tackle seems like it’ll go one of two ways. Left Guard Aaron Banks did not grade out very well last year.

Trent Williams is great, he’ll go to the hall of fame but, he’s 36. Eventually, he’s going to decline.

The offense goes on despite the weaknesses, but a drop in performance may start to hamper the superstar skill guys, and the turnover, with Jon Feliciano injured, is worth watching.

Los Angeles Rams

Still McVay, still Stafford, still a team that needs to be taken seriously despite losing a hall of famer on the defensive side of the ball. Roughly 10 wins on average in my pre-season numbers, but with a lot of room to move both ways considering the roster. I was a little surprised, but this was my 5th-rated offense coming in.

Strengths

49ers-ish team on the offense. Solid WRs, great play caller, with some worries at O-Line.

The biggest difference is not having a McCaffrey, which I suppose 31 teams struggle with (30 if you want to get technical, Commanders fans). If Kupp and Nacua are fully healthy, it’s a dangerous offense with a handful of RBs that can contribute to what we saw was an improving run scheme from McVay.

Weaknesses

Youth and inexperience all over the defense. It was nice to see some solid performances from some of the youngsters last year, but it begs the question: how much of that was in part due to teams needing to game plan for Aaron Donald?

With rookies and second-year guys all over the front seven, I did have to downgrade some of the defensive metrics for now. If the Florida State kids (Fiske, Verse) and the sophomores (Young, Turner) play well, we may get closer to last year’s ratings.

Wildcard

I haven’t done it yet in the chart above, but the offensive line took a downswing with the Alaric Jackson suspension at the start of the season. Joe Noteboom will once again be called into action. The interior line is also going through some changes with a new center due to free agent Jonah Jackson coming over from Detroit.

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Seattle Seahawks

An exciting young coach, a highly regarded college mind stepping in as OC, and talent everywhere. Still trying to manage my expectations, but this teams seems to be one with a very extreme high-end if things click quickly. For now they’re my 17th-rated team, expecting them to be right around the .500 mark, even with an odd number of games.

Strengths

Ryan Grubb has never called an NFL offense before, but I’m still a little excited after catching some Washington Huskies games and seeing how Geno’s long ball combined with three good WRs could absolutely fit perfectly with what made Grubb successful in college.

Weaknesses

Haven’t been able to get the OLine sorted despite some efforts in the draft and free agency. RT Abe Lucas hasn’t gotten it yet and is on the PUP anyway. LT Charles Cross has been serviceable but also struggled to stay healthy. Rookie Christian Haynes will start as depth. Laken Tomlinson was signed to take over at RG, but honestly, he hasn’t been that good either. This unit finished with a 28th ranked pass blocking grade last year.

Wildcard

Can Mike Macdonald speed up the process? He’s been a whiz at getting a defense up to snuff in a hurry, but it’s taken a little time. In Baltimore, year two was when you really saw the bump, and both times he’s gotten a defense fixed (there and Michigan), he’s had a Harbaugh to worry about running the team. He’s already made a flurry of moves at linebacker to get “guys that fit his system,” according to the beat writers. I’m just not sure how quickly we can get this thing off the ground.

Arizona Cardinals

Bad but fun? This offense certainly has some serious upside, but you can’t resurrect a roster in one offseason, and the defense appears to be lacking at all three levels, and badly. My 17th-rated offense, dead last on defense for me. Still think they can get upwards of seven wins if they overperform when they have the ball.

Strengths

Let’s go look at Kyler Murray pre-injury. 90 total TDs in his first three years in the league. He’s healthy and playing for an offensive coordinator who’s done this sort of thing at the pro level. I’m hopeful that he will be great again, and his ceiling is definitely a top-10 quarterback in the league.

Weaknesses

Everything possible defensively. With so many holes to fill, they just didn’t do much to help out last years bottom-ranked defense. The secondary may be a bright spot, but even back there we’ll probably see some rookies get time alongside Budda Baker, Jalen Thompson, and Sean Murphy-Bunting.

Wildcard

How quickly does this group of receivers grow? MHJ looks like the real deal from Jump Street, and maybe folks just didn’t watch much Arizona last year, missing out on just how good TE Trey McBride was. Michael Wilson and/or Greg Dortch are going to have to take a big chunk of the targets as well and this might just go as they go.

now… the bonus division, the AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

Strengths

Lots to list, this is the best team afterall. Mahomes, Andy Reid, superior game planning, the ability to adapt the offense and keep winning, Chris Jones, the QB, how they’ve developed young defensive backs, Pacheco, great special teams play, number 15.

Weaknesses

Hasn’t been a good run stop unit, and somehow hasn’t seemed to matter a ton either. Still, it’s not a good trait when you have a high-powered offense, and you’re trying to get them back on the field in a close game.

Wildcard

I suppose, once again, we need to watch this WR group and see what happens. Maybe it just takes a healthy and available Rashee Rice, and this won’t be the same talking point again. Excited for the rookie, hopeful for the rest.

Los Angeles Chargers

Impossible to not get excited about for the past few years, followed by a letdown. There is a new sheriff in town in Jim Harbaugh, but still a bit of a fixer-upper of a roster. 18th-rated offense, 18th-rated defense, despite some stars. Median projections here are a winning record, but not by much.

Strengths

You’ve nailed down the most important position. You can build around a quarterback. Missing time last year with an injury was almost a relief for me after seeing him lose weapon after weapon to other injuries (WRs) or father time (Ekeler). Still, even if this turns out to be a run-first team, having a high-end QB is a privilege that affords you many freedoms when it comes to game planning.

Weaknesses

The folks needed to help the most important position are lacking. McConkey, Josh Palmer, and DJ Chark as your starting WR trio with the oft-injured Ravens running back room and Will Dissly rounding things out. Not ideal, but with a new brain trust coming in, I’m willing to give some benefit of the doubt and hope for quick development. We all loved what Roman did for young Lamar in Baltimore.

Wildcard

The Greg Roman scheme. This will be Justin Herbert’s fourth offensive coordinator since coming into the league. If this is an offense focused around the running game, I guess there aren’t a ton of folks I’d rather have in charge, and considering the roster, maybe it’s the right path to head down for now.

Chargers RB Gus Edwards: I 'love' OC Greg Roman's scheme | FOX Sports

New Chargers running back Gus Edwards loves offensive coordinator Greg Roman's scheme, which he played in with the Ravens.

Las Vegas Raiders

The world’s saddest QB competition ended how it should have, they went with the guy they paid to come in and win the job. Still a below-average signal caller and a very questionable coaching staff on a team with some really good individual players. Seven wins projected for me.

Strengths

The highs are high. Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby are All-Pro caliber players. If the Christian Wilkins signing works out, this is a formidible pass rush to plan against. Similarly, if Jakobi Meyers and the two young TEs all gel and we see a strong receiving corps helping to get the most out of Minshew, this team can compete for a wildcard spot.

Weaknesses

I hate picking on Minshew, but this isn’t an ideal QB room by any means. He’s a bottom-third-of-the-league guy who can turn the ball over a little too much when it matters. Having a pretty “meh” offensive line in front of him and Zamir White as the lead back worries me as well. If they turn this team over to AOC without an injury, we know things have gone very south without even looking at the record.

Wildcard

The coach? Maybe he’s the answer, but I don’t beleive in the interim bump having a shelf life that extends beyond the offseason. Sometimes it’s difficult to judge a coaching staff in a small sample, but I’ll be keeping an eye on the offensive game plans, the 2nd half adjustments, and any rumblings from disgruntled WRs.

Denver Broncos

Starting this team fairly low. I’ve got them pegged for roughly five wins. Anything from the QB or what they’ve cobbled together for a pass rush can give this team some upside. Not like “make the playoffs” upside, but enough to play a few fun games.

Strengths

This is my 28th rated offense and 27th rated defense, so this isn’t easy. I suppose you have a strong CB1 to build around in Patrick Surtain? His numbers weren’t as good last year, but you’d hope he can get closer to his 2022 level and provide at least one piece of solid play for this defense. If I wanted to add one more silver lining what looks to be a bad season, the offensive line is improving and could finish as a top 10 unit if things go well.

Weaknesses

Lots, and I’ll leave Nix for the next section, but that’s probably the biggest. Lacking weapons in the passing game, not having a high end tight end nor an experienced receiving back: this is sort of the Anti-Chicago. All the things that you can have to help a young(ish) QB succeed don’t exist here.

Wildcard

Nix. His relationship to Payton. Payton’s offensive game plans with Nix. Rumors of messiness already are hopefully just that, rumors. If true though, I’m not sure what the middle of the season looks like. Will we see Stidham without a Nix injury?

I will say the style of game plan Payton put together late in his tenure in New Orleans should fit the young QB well, we just need to see it executed.

Tomorrow: Full Power Ratings, Tiers, a TNF preview, a few bets, might even waste some money on First TD scorers!