NFC South Ratings

Power Numbers, Projections, and Quick Thoughts on the Always Wide-Open South

Author

Andy Molitor
August 21, 2024

Now that we’re through 75% of the league in podcast form (and moving into the final two divisions starting tonight), I’ll be summarizing some thoughts and getting the ratings out into the world over the next week and change, as we approach the actual start of the season.

Going in the same order as we did, starting with the Souths, these have had some small adjustments as we’ve moved through the preseason. Trying to keep this semi-brief since we’ve laid down at least an hour of audio on each team as it is; strengths/weaknesses are pretty self-explanatory.

“Wildcard” isn’t just going to be something I think is less predictable, but more along the lines of “the thing I’m most likely to move my market rating on.”

Because that’s what the whole summer and prep time has been about: getting to a pre-season rating I’m comfortable going into week one with. The ratings for the eight positions/groups are a percentile compared to all groups for the last five years, simplified and rounded. So, a 5 just means an extremely average group.

The total rating is a weighted average of the percentiles for the positional groups. An easy way to look at it for a full season prediction is to convert it to a win percentage.

So, a 5.9 = 59% = a 10-7 record. Roughly.

So, the first of EIGHT quick looks at where I’m starting the season at for each of these teams (subject to immediate and severe changes based on injuries/trades/etc.)

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Atlanta Falcons

Projected for a 10-7 Season and a return to the playoffs as a division champ. They did qualify as a wildcard in ‘17, but it’s been since that fateful Super Bowl-reaching season that they’ve taken the South crown.

Strengths

The plethora of high-round offensive skill positions players that haven’t all seemed to vibe or click at the same time under the previous regime.

Add in a playcaller from a well-known forward-thinking coaching tree in the Rams’ Zac Robinson as well as a rebuilt offensive line… basically all you need is a steady quarterback who doesn’t have a massive red flag for age or injury risk. Easy.

Weaknesses

Basically the entire defense. Even after a couple of signings this past week it’s hard to be hopeful that the ceiling here is even a league-average defensive unit.

Shifting to a 3-4 under the new DC, relying on a pass rusher that’s just getting to camp this week as your clear top option, and having an extremely unevenly-skilled secondary are all going to be issues, especially early on. Every level needs a “best case” from some of the also-rans to come to fruition for this unit to be good enough to make this team a legit playoff threat.

Wildcard

I mean, it’s the quarterback play right? Kirko has given us something to think about by playing well enough up in Minnesota to merit the big free agent contract. We’ll be going in blind on this though. There is a wild range of outcomes we get at QB, including a mess that costs this team a playoff spot again.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Clear second fiddle in my and the markets numbers, but another one where the upside is probably there if we see part two of the Bakerssaince. 9-8 and half decent shot at being a playoff spoiler for me.

Strengths

Still have a stud pair of WRs in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans that maybe don’t get the love they deserve. I haven’t puzzled out why the fanfare isn’t the same here as we see from some other top duos, but when they are healthy, it’s as consistent of a top-two as you could ask for.

Evans is getting a little long in the tooth but put up his best PFF grade since 2019 last year, hauling in 13 TDs and 1255 yards on just 79 catches

Weaknesses

Offensive Line is probably going to be a problem again. Solid tackles in Wirfs and Goedeke but a lot of questions up the middle with struggling second year guard Cody Mauch as the only continuity from a 2023 unit that tragically underperformed in run blocking.

Wildcard

ANOTHER new Offensive coordintor. Liam Coen is the third play caller in three years for the Bucs and a lot of folks want to give former OC Dave Canales a lot of credit for how well this offense played at times last year. Something I’ll be monitoring once we actually get to see the offense next month is the early down run rates, which was awful high last year. Baker was great, but balling out on third downs at an unsustainable rate for a second straight year seems hard to ask for.

New Orleans Saints

Some folks are keen on this team, I stuggle with the squads that are going to get there based on defense. The teams that are able to get you in a barroom brawl and win low scoring games tend to have good coaches (Stefanski, Tomlin), I don’t have Dennis Allen in the same stratosphere as those guys. Going to round down and project 7-10 for this squad.

Strengths

Front Seven might be very solid agianst the run agian, with the added threat of some pash rushing with the addition of Chase Young. Again, I don’t think the recipe to winning in 2024 is defense first. It only gets you so far. I’m just saying that this was a pretty good secondary even with some poor pressure numbers at times. If things click, this isn’t going to be a fun defense to game plan for.

Weaknesses

Disaster of an Oline is the most likely outcome. They drafted help with their first round pick, but said pick, Taliese Fuaga, already has a back injury. They have a very good center in Erik McCoy, but four MASSIVE question marks surrounding him to start the season.

Derek Carr may be ending his career the way his brother David started his.

Wildcard

Skill group.

What does Alvin Kamara have as he closes in on 30? Can Olave continue to elevate himself and become a top-10 wideout this year? What does a full compliment of Rashid Shaheed look like? Is Taysom Hill a running back now? (he looked good the other day). The questions don’t seem to end as we start the Klint Kubiak era in the Big Easy. Who’s stepping up as the 3rd and 4th WR options? How much of a workload is Jamaal Williams going to get?

I don’t expect to be wowed by this offense, but I’ll be paying attention.

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Carolina Panthers

Still bad. Rebuild is starting, but unless Bryce Young fooled us all last year, this roster is still a ways from relevance. 5-12 season is the projection based on the power numbers.

Strengths

They have a new coach and no matter what you sort of qualifiers you want to put on it, he’s had some luck resurrecting some QBs that were trending the wrong way. I personally don’t want to give Dave Canales the QB Whisperer tag after two seasons of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield joining the ranks of the living again, but it still happened and I can’t take it away from him.

Weaknesses

All the important parts that are needed to score points.

Unless we do see a wild and improbably turn around from 2nd year signal caller Bryce Young, I don’t see how this team looks terribly different from last years squad (the main difference being that they own their 1st round pick this year, I suppose).

Dionte Johnson is already dinged up with a groin injury, Xavier Legette hasn’t played a snap yet and Adam Thielen is my age. I’ve been wrong before, but I’m not holding out hope for a top half of the league passing offense here.

Wildcard

It was always Bryce.

It’s hard to see it based on last year’s tape and what we’ve seen as a surrounding cast, but I’m willing to entertain a world where Bryce Young becomes a league-average quarterback under a new coaching regime. I’m not looking for this to hit me over the head week one; it would likely be more of a gradual thing that some may adjust for a bit faster than the market as a whole.

Back with the AFC South tomorrow at some point, but as usual, feel free to argue with me on Twitter if you think the Falcons suck or that Bryce is poised for a big year under new management.