Countdown to the season keeps ticking away.

Happy Saturday! Enjoy the college football slate if that’s your thing. I’ve got final tweaks on about 12 more teams to make before I finalize some week-one bets. I am pumped that the next podcast I do will be a full-ass week-one betting breakdown.

NFC Norse, ratings, projections, quick thoughts:

Detroit Lions

Growing up following the NFC Central/North, this is quite the development for me. I have the Lions rated as a top five team in the NFL to start the year. Never thought I’d see the day. I have them an 11+ win team in early projections.

Strengths

O Line is still great. Best RT in football, the best C in football, and a top 10 tackle on the other end. That would be enough for most teams to be pretty damn happy, but in addition to Decker, Sewell, and Ragnow, they’ve got well above-average guards in Graham Glasgow and Kevin Zeitler. Everything is just so much easier when this sort of thing is sorted out.

Weaknesses

Coverage plan is suspect still, but no one’s perfect. Replacement level-graded Carleton Davis on one side, with a rookie in Terrion Arnold on the other.

2nd-year man Brian Branch is listed as a safety but played mostly slot corner last year. It’ll be interesting to see where he’s lining up at the most each game as we get going. He excelled all over, and if they can get something out of another addition in former Raider Amik Robinson, Branch can become a “chess piece” that can help in all phases of the defense. I’ll admit I was a bit cold on him last year, but he built off his strong start and was a top defensive rookie in a loaded class.

Wildcard

Jameson Williams? Coming into the league rehabbing off an injury, picking up another in camp his second year and piling on with a gambling suspension. It’s been a damn rocky start.

But, this is a high pedigree player that SHOULD have a high-ass ceiling. There’s room for him to shine with the top threats being a slot receiver and a tight end. Feels like the kind of thing that could put this team over the top and put them on par (or above) with the Eagles and 49ers in the NFC

Not An Influencer? Get Paid Like One!

Not an influencer? Get paid like one with INMO! Start owning your content and get paid. Enter daily challenges by posting an original video, sourced video or voting for your favorite. And yes, it really works. Start your side hustle today!

Pay Me Like An Influencer

Green Bay Packers

My sixth-highest rated offense with room to move up. I have them projection for slightly less than 11 wins and very much in the mix for both the NFC North or the top wildcard spot. New defensive coordinator + staving off regression are the key cogs this year.

Strengths

Depth where it counts.

Having this many good young WRs (and TEs) somehow has media people in a tizzy. The “who is the #1” question is a lot more important to pre-season fluff pieces than an actual game plan. Being able to plug and play half a dozen capable receiving targets is never a bad thing. Although, I really think a healthy Christian Watson can set himself apart this year.

What if the story about his legs just being wildly different in strength are true and he suddenly just doesn’t miss time anymore after sorting that out?

Weaknesses

Run Stop is still looking like a big problem. I am reserving some judgment since we have a brand new defensive coordinator in town, but we will have to be stuck on priors until we see a difference, as they were 23rd in Rush EPA/play against last year. I think overall, this defense can improve (I love the pass rush to keep ascending), but the interior defensive line and linebacking corps just don’t seem to have what it takes to fix this without some players surprising us.

Wildcard

Upside? Jordan Love is still very much extremely early in his career. Hell, so are most of the guys he throws to. I know he didn’t look as good last year, but Josh Jacobs is only one year removed from being the league’s leading rusher. Everyone likes to predict regression, but there’s still a world where Love and others improve, and this becomes one of the best offenses in the league. You know what doesn’t matter as much when you score 30 a game? Your run defense.

Minnesota Vikings

It's not the worst roster build if you don’t include the most important piece. With Darnold at the helm, the ceiling is low, but who knows if J.J. McCarthy is an NFL QB, either. Could be a frustrating year and I have them at 7 or 8 wins this year, likely missing the playoffs.

Strengths

Top end of the skill group is elite (once Hock gets back). Lots of things that will keep this team from winning a ton of games this year, but Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson are elite pieces when it comes to keeping drives alive.

Weaknesses

Besides Darnold? I’m going to get into the defense a bit in the next section, so I won’t pick on the secondary.

There are some depth issues. WR3 is Jalen Nailor. he’s had a nice camp, but is’s pretty untested. After that, it’s very murky. The same goes for what is a pretty solid offensive line. Outside of swing tackle David Quessenberry, there aren’t many good options if someone gets dinged up.

Trying to nitpick, but the answer is still very clearly just Sam Darnold.

Wildcard

Second Year Flores. I talked about this a bunch last year when we explored some of Brian Flores’ successes along the way. He has been able to get some teams coached up and quickly into the elite ranks of defenses, but it always took a little bit of time. A second year with the team and the addition of some free agents (Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman, Andrew Van Ginkle, Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin) has me keeping a close eye on this defense.

Chicago Bears

Exciting times in Chicago. Really feels like a prince-that-was-promised vibe here as it’s just been sooo long since we’ve seen solid QB play for any length of time for the Bears. Still projecting them for seven wins right now based on the info we have. Long term, I love the vision, but short term there are still some big holes in the roster.

Strengths

For the millionth time: They’ve surrounded a rookie passer with 3-4 good options to throw to, an offensive line that’s at least passable, and a stable of running backs that will be able to take some pressure of him.  

Compared to what Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and eventually, Drake Maye will be working with, this is as good of a situation as you can be in. And I’m not even referring to team success. It’s just awesome to be able to sit down at the end of 17 games and say that we were able to properly evaluate how Caleb played. None of this wishy-washy nonsense about needing to see it with better players over and over like we’ve done with Justin Fields.

Again, this isn’t breaking news, it’s just lovely to know at the end of the year, we’ll likely know whether the Bears have a QB or not.

Weaknesses

Handful of things:

• I’m not as jazzed about new OC Shane Waldron as others. He’s going to use more motion and lighter formations on early downs, but I would think damn near anyone would have compared to Getsy. Not sure they nailed the hire.

• Past Montez Sweat, I’m not sure who’s going to be generating pressures for this defense. This might be a team that’s forced to blitz more than it’ll want to.

• The offensive line had some durability issues last year. It was an improved squad and has a chance to take another step forward, but there have already been multiple players up front who missed practice time during camp and the preseason (Jenkins, Davis, Wright).

Wildcard

Another no-brainer with the rookie QB starting from day one.

When you draft a QB at #1 and he’s been this highly touted for going on three years, you’d expect a high ceiling. I don’t know how high that is, but as far as “factor that’s most likely to change my Bears rating” there’s not a close second that isn’t some sort of massive unforeseen cluster injury.

Five days left, people. Back tomorrow with the nastiest division in the league