Monday Night Football

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The Cowboys mucking it up and the Steelers magically finding a way.

Two forces pulling in the same direction, slowly trying to guide a football game to an undeserving winner via some sort of otherworldly magic that just seems to affect these teams.

I didn’t have a horse in the race pre-game, but I was happy to see Dak overcome whatever voodoo existed and make that pass on 4th down. The Cowboys were clearly the better team last night in everything but the “making mistakes” categories: 1-4 in the red zone, a 3-0 turnover disparity (box score will say 3-1, but the fumble on the final play certainly doesn’t hold the same weight), and eleven penalties for 87 yards.

Still, a 445 to 226 yardage difference is hard to overcome, even with help.

A few quick takeaways from each game yesterday:

• I’m a bit worried that the Aaron Rodgers experience is going awry. That was a tough defense in a weird travel spot, but he looked pretty awful on his three picks.

• I get that the offensive line is bad, but it’s probably time for the Patriots to start Drake Maye and see what they have in him. If AVP can’t scheme an offense to help protect him a little then maybe they need to move on at OC as well.

• The Browns are broken in so many ways, but this is two weeks in a row now that the Washington pass rush has shown some nice flashes. If this defense can pull itself out of the basement, I think they can win playoff games.

• Jacksonville gets a win, but it wasn’t terribly impressive from their defense facing a Colts team missing their top weapon in Jonathan Taylor. Flacco picked up where he left off last year and looked great, albeit against backup corners.

• Buffalo (most of the game) and Houston (after Collins exited) really struggled on offense for some teams that we’ve seen flourish this year. This is one I’ll be rewatching this afternoon.

• The Raiders may be in trouble in a couple of ways. Aside from the WR drama, they may be in a precarious spot looking ahead to the future. At this point, the fans have to be thinking about who the next QB will be, but it’s going to be very competitive for the #1 overall pick and just high picks in general. There are seven teams with just one win on the season ahead of them and another six that are tied with them, holding a 2-3 record.

My best take ahead of Sunday

That even an imperfect Bears team should have mismatches all over the field.

Carolina wasn’t good to start the season, they really didn’t have a chance to be good once the season got going either, but the injuries have really hurt. Losing Adam Theilen, as well as several key defenders, is making it even harder for the new head coach, Dave Canales. The Bears moved at will, got stops, and built up a nice, comfy 27-7 lead heading into halftime. Totals bettors had to sweat a bit to get the over but Bears -4 or Bears TTo backers were able to relax.

My worst take ahead of Sunday:

A team could overcome the widowmaker spot.

My numbers made Seattle a sizeable favorite hosting the Giants without Malik Nabers, but I was going up against a pretty nasty rest disadvantage. Teams coming off the TNF game (9 days of rest) and facing a team off of MNF (5 days of rest) cover at a 60% clip historically, and more recently still at 58%+ since 2000. Not a massive sample, and I’m not a trendz guy, but still something I have difficulty pricing in.

My Good take that didn’t work out

Arizona/San Francisco over 48.5

Nine Red Zone Trips. 750 combined yards, even got a bonus blocked kick return TD on top of it that won’t show up in the yardage stats. Just a nightmare 2nd half as the 49ers did not score a single point against a team that’s in the bottom five in the league for points & touchdowns and is averaging 360 yards against per game so far. A combined 2 for 9 in the red zone will get you every time. Still had a chance late if the 49ers could have driven the ball close enough for the punter to try a FG, but it was not to be.

Market

Not a ton of movement for the side, staying pretty close to the KC -5 number we saw at open. There was an adjustment from the lookahead of KC -6.5

Lookahaed on this total was as high as 45.5 last week, opening 43 Sunday night and bouncing back and force between 42.5 and 43 for most of the week.

Injuries

Besides losing WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury of some nature, the Chiefs are healthy. WR Mecole Hardman sounds likely to play. He has a questionable tag for tonight. Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire remain out, leaving the backfield Kareem Hunt, and possibly some Samaje Perine and Carson Steele.

The Saints are still a little beat up:

• TE Taysom Hill will be out with a rib injury

• LB Willie Gay is out with his hand injury

• Despite some thought that he’d make his debut tonight, RB Kendre Miller is listed as doubtful.

• LB Pete Werner (Hamstring) was downgraded from Questionable to Out

• With centers Erik McCoy and Shane Lemieux ruled out, as well as RG Cesar Ruiz, the middle of the offensive line will be composed of backups and guys that were just signed off the Jets practice squad.

• LG Lucas Patrick (Groin) is Questionable, and to be honest, I’m not even sure who would play in his place, as they don’t appear to have enough interior linemen on the roster to backfill all three spots.

Matchup

While we’ve grown accustomed to Mahomes wowing us with highlight plays (I’m sure we’ve not seen the last of that), this KC offense has been anything but explosive this season.

While they do throw more often on early downs than most, it’s often short and is turning this offense into a slower, ball-control team even without their top RB. They boast one of the highest success rates on offense in the league… but fall in the middle of the pack in dropback EPA/play. The passing is working to keep drives going but isn’t finding the big gainers.

The Chiefs’ defense was a little bit of a concern for me in the offseason after losing Sneed to free agency, but thus far, it’s been a unit that I’ve been upgrading. Sturdy against the run and looking good enough in coverage, this unit playing at a higher level has been a bit of a necessity with the offense struggling at times.

The night may just come down to Alvin Kamara vs the Chiefs defense. He’s been a monster in both the run and through the air, but has been banged up. If he’s still struggling with broken ribs, this linebacking corps, along with anyone from the secondary they bring up into the box, should be able to at least limit the damage he does tonight. If Olave and Shaheed beat me deep a bunch, I’ll be surprised (and poorer, most likely).

A KC lead would further exacerbate the mismatch Chris Jones will likely have no matter where he lines up, and the now-methodical KC offense would be well-suited to grind it out and speed the game up. Considering how late I stayed up last night, I wouldn’t mind any of that.

Betting

As I’ve laid out a bit, I do like both of these defenses and still think this total should be below 42. I bet at worse numbers early in the week, but I always try quote a widely available price for anything I put in the newsletter. Hell, you should be able to find some reduced juice on an u43 if you look around.

BET: KC/NO under 43 -110