First off, good job Dave Canales. A tough spot to be in for a first-year head coach, but this is probably the correct move, at least for the time being.

Quick thoughts on my ratings: I bumped the Vikes and Saints up last week, but not enough. I bumped the Panthers down, but they found a sub-basement. I’ll have to decide where the Red Rocket puts them,

We’ll see where I’m at on the Falcons in about 12 hours, but for the most part, outside of the two big QB injuries we’ve had this year, a lot of stuff has been pretty close.

Week three tweaks should be smaller, and we’ll be able to dive deeper into matchups.

Biggest takeaways from Sunday:

• The Ravens still lack a certain something when playing with the lead. That offense needs to find a different mentality in the 2nd half of games

• Pending the next 15+ games, Klint Kubiak may have passed Ben Johnson as the hot name in the OC streets when we look to fill the coaching vacancies (early hot take, subject to change).

• The market was right about the Packers/Colts game, and in hindsight, it’s not like we have a big sample of seeing Richardson play either.

• Brian Flores has outdueled two pretty decent play callers this week against a team with actual offensive players involved.

• Arizona may not make the playoffs, but it’d be a lot more fun if they did.

• Mike Tomlin is going to do it again! 9-8 while scoring roughly 14.6 points per game? Why not.

• The Jags don’t have any massive issues; they just have 100 minor issues, and they’re at every level on both sides of the ball (and on the sidelines). Dangerously close to being 2-0, despite it all.

• Early returns on Jerod Mayo seem good. The team isn’t great, but they aren’t showing signs of being undisciplined or unorganized. Those are solid signs for a young HC.

• All the rookie QBs are a ways away from being good, much less “2023 Stroud Good”. Despite the opportunities, OROY may end up being a WR. Nabers and MHJ are already showing out.

My best take ahead of Sunday

“Panthers may not score”

Against a quickly improved and healthy Chargers defense, the new-look Bolts offense started salting this one away early—easy cash on the under 39. Winning bets is fun, but laying out the script and seeing it come to fruition feels even better.

My worst take ahead of Sunday

“The Cowboys’ defense might be way better than we thought.”

Although Deshaun Watson did have a much better game in week two, the Saints LAID IT ON ‘EM in Dallas. Maybe the Saints are just generational now, with Klink Kubiak calling the plays.

My good take that didn’t work out

“Bad QBs will still move the ball on VERY bad defenses.”

I had the over in the Giants/Commanders game, and while they did combine for NINE Red Zone appearances, they only converted three, and the Giants had to get a little creative since they had no one to kick XPs and FGs.

Market

Falcons steam, or are we just never going to see a big favorite cover again with the lack of scoring this year?

Down to -5.5 after getting as high a -6.5 with some extra juice last Monday, the injuries definitely a factor.

The total also dropped a bit after opening last Sunday night at 48.5. Another healthy whack this morning took it under 46 for the time being.

Injuries

The Falcons ruled out LB Nate Landman with calf and quad injuries. CB Antonio Hamilton will also miss the game with a groin injury. Hamilton did not play in week one, but Landman did and played well, leaving a hole for an Atlanta defense tasked with stopping a good offense on the road.

The Eagles ruled out star WR A.J. Brown after he sustained a hamstring injury in practice this week. WR Johnny Wilson is listed as questionable. CB Isaiah Rodgers and LB Devin White practiced this week and will play after missing the Brazil game.

Matchup

Last game of the week where we get to decide how much stock we want to put into week one’s results.

I’ll be watching the Eagles’ defense closely in this one. Green Bay finished 20th in defensive EPA/play in week one and 8th so far this week. A big part of that was the downgrade in opponent, but the eye test said they played a much better game, despite the added pressure of knowing the offense likely wasn’t going to put up much. Hoping the Eagles have a similar glow-up now that they are on turf that isn’t dropping players left and right.

The other big question to answer is about Kirk Cousins’ health. They ran an offense that protected him more but did nothing to help him succeed. The Steeler's defense is very good, but it still felt like a stripped-down version of what this offense is supposed to be. I’d LOVE to see some play-action and a couple of shots down on the field, but I’d settle on just getting him under center a bit more.

Betting

Nothing on this side or total for me. My raw numbers make the Eagles roughly seven-point favorites, but I have massive questions about the Eagles’ defense and the Falcons’ offense and will be avoiding things. I agree with the move to the under, but I certainly am not looking at getting in at the worst of it on gameday at this point.

I do like a small bet on some props in the guessing game surrounding where the targets will go with AJ Brown out. The likely answer may just be more running, but I can’t see them getting too one-dimensional and with a thin and getting thinner group of coverage linebackers and corners, I’m doing what I always do: fall in love with a Tight End.

He was clearly a tertiary option last week, but with Brown out and a pretty good CB1 in AJ Terrell likely to run with Devonta Smith, I’d like to see them use more of what Kellen Moore has excelled with: a quick offense that has two tight ends out there a bunch. Goedert was on the field for 82% of snaps in week one and had multiple breakout games last year when healthy. Go Jacks.

Dallas Goedert over 43.5 receiving yards -110

Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions +108

Dallas Goedert Anytime TD +220

Before the Game

I will rip through all my thoughts, all the injuries, what matters for next week, and the early lines for week three tonight, SOLO (Drew is on vacation in Greece picking up hair products).