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Would Dan Campbell Lie to Us? (plus five props in case he isn't)
Andy Molitor
December 30, 2024
The discourse around tonight’s matchup is already electric, and we haven’t even gotten close to kicking off yet.
What if Jahmyr Gibbs runs the ball 15 times in the first half? What if there’s an injury to someone meaningful for the Lions? What if Dan Campbell’s version of “this game is meaningless” is him never punting/never kicking?
There are so many questions to be answered; honestly, I’m starting to get cold feet on betting on this one. At least from the standpoint of simply taking a stand on the Lions -3/-3.5
fascinating position for the lions to be in vs the 49ers. if they were purely optimizing on winning a super bowl resting the starters would probably be the move
throw in that it’s a revenge game, it’s a primetime game and dan campbell’s mentality and that leads you to believe… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics)
5:21 AM • Dec 30, 2024
It’s a short week, and there’s a good chance this is the most meaningful regular season game in Detroit Lions history. The difference between getting a bye & hosting until the Super Bowl and being a five-seed that likely has to win three straight road games instead is massive. There are so many reasons NOT to play anyone in this game for the Lions, and really the only counterargument being: “can’t get rusty”.
In the end, I have no clue what drives Dan Campbell to do the things he does, but I’m fine with him being himself and not conforming to the norm, I suppose. Maybe GM Brad Holmes can talk some sense into him between now and 8:15.
So what do we know:
Dan Campbell is on record saying that he’ll be playing his starters
At least some prop players are calling BS, with Gibbs’ rushing yardage total and attempts being steamed down.
The overall market isn’t budging much from the Lions as a 3.5-point favorite.
It’s a “revenge game” after the Lions were knocked out last season in this same building.
For a game that will be previewed at all angles, it's notable that Vikings players are resting today (Victory Monday) after a home game, while the Lions are in San Fran awaiting tonight's game, followed by a late flight back to Detroit. Vikings have ~ 30 more hours of rest time.
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN)
6:05 PM • Dec 30, 2024
As for me, coming out of the holidays, I want to believe.
As I stated before though, I’m not interested in making a regular-sized bet at -110. I’m going to take some shots with smaller stakes. If the game plan is to go full bore on offense, the Lions can 100% run a train on Shanny here. The only spot I’ll deviate a bit is that even Dan knows that with Montgomery hurt, he can’t afford to be pounding Gibbs into the line over and over late in the game. Taking a couple of punts on the backup RBs as well.
Detroit -7 +150
Detroit -14 +354
Tim Patrick 70+ yards +730
Jermar Jefferson anytime TD +1300
Sione Vaki anytime TD +1700
Some useful charts for your consumption. Every single scenario for seeding/divisional winners heading into next week. I love finding these so I don’t have to sort it out myself:
Every NFL seeding scenario entering Week 18, via @RealJackAndrade:
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero)
12:31 PM • Dec 30, 2024
Updated: I jotted down the motivations for each playoff contender in Week 18.
KC, BUF, HOU and PHI seem like strong bets to rest key players.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
2:07 PM • Dec 30, 2024
All the injury news I could round up on Sunday:
