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Obituaries ☠

⚰The Jets

Maybe the worst situation going forward with Rodgers picking up knocks every week and no real plan in sight. The defense had another bad day and I’m officially calling it a year for the Jets, even with just how wide-open the AFC wildcard spot is. Silver Lining: even with the mess, it’s still probably a desirable job opening next year!

⚱Dallas

Any hope of Dak coming back after a spell where Cooper Rush managed to win a couple of games has died. If I were a Cowboys fan, I think I’d much rather stare directly into the sun than watch the product on the field right now.

💀Tampa Bay

They still show a fair chance to make the playoffs by some estimates; I think the injuries have finally put them in the ground. Now down Tristan Wirfs when they come back out of the bye, it seems like the path to the postseason is tough even with the Falcons mucking it up on Sunday. Losing both head-to-head matchups means they’d likely need a wildcard spot and would be competing with Green Bay, San Francisco, Arizona, Minnesota, and the Rams for it.

🏳Chicago

Kinda needed this one. I’m sure you’ve heard it a dozen times by now, but the remaining strength of schedule is pretty rough. The past two weeks pretty much eliminated any chance of a winning season, a playoff berth, or good feelings in general. At least the weather is about to get terrible as well.

My best take ahead of Sunday

Man, I dunno, even the wins I got were pretty close. I suppose it was using the Chargers as a teaser leg. They gave up one good drive as a defense. The second TD was garbage time and even with some injuries keeping Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa on the sidelines for good portions of the day, the defense delivered and the teaser was really never in doubt.

My worst take ahead of Sunday

For the second week in a row, it’s the Bears. Caleb is getting worse. The offensive line is so injured that even bad pass rushes are getting handfuls of sacks. The team looks to have quit at times and the Coaching Staff really sounds like they’ve lost the locker room. The market gave them a massive downgrade when it reopened this week.

My Good take that didn’t work out

The Falcons have tested me for years now, and I guess I should just be used to taking weird results when the Falcons (or Seahawks, for that matter) play. I don’t want to whine, but I dug in, and games where both teams had 350 total yards or more have gone over the total 83.6% of the time. If you look at similar games but crank it up to one of the teams having 450 total yards, the games go over at a 92.2% clip. I’m just gonna be over here in the 7.8% whining, I guess. Hell, we didn’t even get to 40.

Market

This look-ahead price was actually -2.5/-3 before Halloween and reponed -2.5 before taking some midweek Miami money down to Rams -1 on Wednesday. It’s slowly crept back up and is starting to see some cheap -3s on the board as the Rams support returns.

Total opened 50.5 and bounced about around that price until midweek limits came up and then sharply headed downward to 50 and then further as we hit the weekend. Now as low as 48.5 with game day money continuing to push down.

Which leads to the big question…

Injuries

I have no info on Tyreek’s status, but the market moving to the Rams AND the under, doesn’t seem to bode well as that’s just a downgrade of Miami’s offense.

Hill did travel with the team, but this does seem like a true game-time decision, as the wrist injury he suffered in the preseason was reaggravated at some point this week.

Outside of that, the Dolphins will be without OT Austin Jackson (knee)

WR Dee Eskridge (personal), S Jevon Holland (hand/knee), FB Alec Ingold (calf), S Patrick McMorris (calf), WR River Cracraft (shoulder) and of course WR Tyreek Hill (wrist) are Questionable.

The Rams have ruled out OT Rob Havenstein (ankle) and DT Neville Gallimore (shoulder). On the bright side, they will be getting guards Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila back this week.

S Kamren Curl (knee), G Kevin Dotson (ankle/knee), and LB Christian Rozeboom (neck) are questionable.

All the injuries I could write down from yesterday’s matchups as we start to prep for week 11.

Matchup

Not a trends guy but, the Dolphins under Mike McDaniel haven’t been great in primetime. 2-9 so far in the stand alone games, with the only two wins coming at home vs Kenny Pickett and in New England facing Mac Jones. I don’t know if there’s some sort of signal for how they prep under McDaniel, but if that’s part of the problem, this isn’t the coaching staff you want to be going up against. McVay seems to be finding mid-season form.

The Rams’ defense did struggle at times with Geno and, to be fair, got bailed out a bit with the interceptions, but it’s still a unit that I’ve rated higher than I thought I would this year. Jared Verse and the rest of the young players who are making this pass rush work right now are a pleasant surprise. The Miami offensive line is middle of the pack for me, but they do rate pretty poorly in sack percentage despite some good pass block win rate numbers. Often, this disparity means the QB is not helping, and the team using some backups for a few weeks is probably a big part of this.

Speaking of, Tua is now on his third game back after his stint on the IR and, on paper, has looked pretty damn good in the two weeks he’s played. He’s third in the league in that time frame for EPA/play and has two losses to show for it. Putting up 27 points two weeks in a row and losing isn’t fun, but the way this defense is looking right now, I don’t know what they expect to change. The actual change, of course, will be playing a better defense. I have the Cardinals and Bills rated in the 20s in my updated defensive rankings. The Rams come in as the 10th-best defense for me.

Los Angeles’ offense should look more like we saw two weeks ago versus Minnesota. Puka was such an instant and palpable boost to the offense that McVay calls, and Stafford excels in. The Dolphins’ defense has been 20th in the league in yards per completion against and 19th in defensive EPA/play on dropbacks. The injuries to the defensive backfield haven’t helped, but the pass rush, averaging 1.3 sacks per game (30th) despite good pressure rates, hasn’t helped.

Betting

I played this yesterday at a lower price, but I still have my fair ratings giving me around Los Angeles -4.8 in tonight’s matchup. A fair-priced -3 is still playable, in my opinion.

I’ve made some serious downgrades to my ratings for the Dolphins’ defense, and this looks like a bad matchup if their pass rush continues to be a non-factor. Now, traveling cross-country after returning from a Buffalo loss that knocked their playoff chances down to ~5%, I’m struggling to find many reasons for this game to be a field goal or less. If they couldn’t manage to stop Khalil Shakir and Ray Davis when it mattered, I’m not sure how this coverage unit slows Puka and Kupp. #Ramily

Rebet MNF Official Play: Rams -3 -106

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