Monday Night Football

DraftKings is the official odds provider of the Deep Dive Newsletter

Monday Pink Slips!

Dennis Allen was likely one of the worst coaches in the league, but it seemed like they’d found something very early on in the season. Overcoming injuries and having to play real defenses caught up to him. I’d expect him to get a job immediately next year as a defensive coordinator, and he’ll likely be just fine in that role. The injuries worked against him, but the punt late in the game up five points was a nice microcosm of how little he understood about how to win the NFL.

Luke Getsy may have been one of the worst hires in the offseason, considering what we already knew about him. My least favorite head coaching, coordinator, and GM hires were all in the same building. I don’t see this making much of a difference, considering the quarterbacks available, the injuries, and the lack of talent in the backfield. My guess for the new OC would be Joe Philbin.

My best take ahead of Sunday:

Atlanta playing well against the shell of the Dallas defense. Falcons -3 to the bank. The final score made it look closer than it was, but that’s what you get when you bet on the Falcons. 8.1 yards per pass, 3-3 in the red zone , and a perfect 2-2 on some well-timed fourth down conversions. The big strip sack on Cousins wasn’t great, but he was exceptional otherwise. Dallas is a tough spot, that appears to be getting tougher with the injuries of Dak and CeeDee.

My worst take ahead of Sunday:

Trusting the Bears in my teaser. The whole game stunk of bad game planning versus a defense you have to beat. Maybe you don’t win the game, but going 3/14 on 3rd down and only finding yourself in the red zone once against Arizona reeks of incompetence. Caleb took six sacks against a no-name pass rush (I know the online is injured but still), and they managed just 9 points on three FGs. What a waste of the Philly teaser leg.

I’ve been looking at some awards prices and while this doesn’t exactly count, is a long shot I agree with. I don’t see Mayo or McCarthy going anywhere. It may just take Pederson hanging on for a few more games while the Bears head to a GB-MIN-DET-SF-MIN stretch after next week’s game hosting New England.

We’ll do a full recap tonight at 7pm on YouTube, but quickly my initial reactions to yesterday: 

Miami finally put together a good game and still lost cause Josh is the balls.

The Raiders are in a very tough spot, but at least they get to go to bye and have some young receivers to build around. I enjoyed Joe Burrow getting mean.  

The Chargers defense is very legit and the Browns post-Watson honeymoon is over.

New England may(e) have a QB that they can develop (sorry), Tennessee probably does not.

I feel like Jayden Daniels is going to win a playoff game. I feel like Daniel Jones is going to win a game in Germany.

Denver ran into a buzzsaw. It’s still a good defense. Baltimore is a buzzsaw. MVP and OPOY.

The Cardinals are buyers today, as they should be.

Jacksonville got lively, but they’re just too injured. The Eagles are winning despite their head coach.

Goff proved he could play well (enough) outdoors, but it would seem that the playoffs go through Detroit anyway. The Pack desperately needs Love to get back to 100%, he looked rough out there when he had to move.

The Rams and Seahawks played a classic “weird Seattle” game. Puka Nacua’s ejection was criminal, and JSN’s breakout was fun even though I had a Rams ticket.

Finally, the Sam Darnold experience ended up just enough on the right side of things to beat a reeling team. Jonathan Taylor will have better days, the Minny run D was just too much.

Market

Lookahead was -9.5, Opened -9 and really hasn’t drifted too far in either direction.

Total was 44.5 on the lookahead and opened there Sunday night. It was bet up as high as 46.5 at some shops midweek before coming back down to the current price.

Injuries

Buccaneers

LB Lavonte David is good to go after missing some practice this week. RB Bucky Irving (toe), S Tykee Smith (concussion), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot), WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring), and WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring) are questionable.

LS Evan Deckers (hamstring), WR Mike Evans (hamstring), and NT Greg Gaines (calf) have been ruled out.

Chiefs

DE Mike Danna, CB Nazeeh Johnson (concussion), and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) are out. The Chiefs also lost a bit of TE depth with both Jody Fortson and Jared Wiley put on the IR. WR Skyy Moore joined them.

Matchup

First off, this may be a weather game. Kevin’s one of the best in the biz, but it’s still weather and can be unpredictable. It doesn’t appear that we’ll have wind to accompany the wet conditions, so I don’t expect this to affect the offenses/kickers too much. If anything, we’ve seen slippery conditions hurt defenses with DBs trying to change directions and failing.

The Bucs lost last week, but all things considered, the offense wasn’t that bad in the first game, with Evans and Godwin both missing. Unfortunately, it was against the Atlanta Falcons that I rated as my 28th-best defense. Now, coming into Arrowhead with extra offensive injuries against my third-best run-stop team, sixth-best pass rush, and even after losing Sneed to free agency, what I consider a top-10 coverage unit. It just doesn’t feel like a recipe for success for an offensive unit that’s had to do plenty to make up for a bottom-five defense.

Tough to guess what to expect from the Kansas City offense that may just be in a good position most of the game thanks to the D, I would hope they start to learn that the games wouldn’t really be close if they took a little better care of the ball. A little cold water on KC: losing Jaylen Watson, and his replacement Nazeeh Johnson over the past few weeks does make this secondary a little worse. If Baker is getting the ball out quickly rather than finding himself on his back looking up at Chris Jones, they could find some success through the air.

Betting

I would have loved to bet the under on rushing yards for the starting running back in a game like this, but with the three-headed monster going, the prices are very low with Irving and White sitting around 30 yards each.

I went looking for sack props, but those seem priced pretty fairly as well. I should just take a good weekend of betting and enjoy this one, but it’s Monday Night so I’ll make a small bet on something I think should be slightly lower:

Tampa Bay Team Total under 18.5 -115